1. Ireland to win by 1-12 points – 7/2
THERE WILL BE more talk of a bonus point in this game than on an episode of The Price Is Right – but don’t believe the hype.
Despite expectations of a resurgent Irish showing after last week’s defeat to Scotland, the stats show that our recent trips to Rome have produced very tight games.
The Azzurri beat the Irish lads in the Eternal City in 2013 and lost by just two points in 2011.
Conor O’Shea’s Italy battled gamely for 60 minutes against Wales in their Six Nations opener and he analysed Ireland on RTÉ for the last number of years, so the former Leinster player will know Joe Schmidt’s outfit inside out.
Don’t be surprised if this one stays close on the scoreboard.
2. Jamie Heaslip to score a try at any time – 3/1
He may not have an Ireland try to his name yet this season, but Leinster’s Jamie Heaslip just loves the sight of a blue Italian jersey in the Six Nations.
The 33-year-old will win his 91st cap for Ireland in Rome and he has nine Six Nations tries on his balance sheet so far.
A third of those scores have come against Italy, including a brace in last season’s 58-15 demolition at the Aviva – the first of which won the 2016 IRPA Try of the Year award.
Don’t think Heaslip has not heard the whispers of rugby punters looking to see Munster’s CJ Stander at number eight for Ireland – so he could well be looking to do an Italian Job on the scoreboard come Saturday.
3. Ireland to fail to beat the Italy (+23.0) handicap – Evens
We’ve already told you about Irish struggles in Rome recently, but even if you take the last six meetings in the tournament in isolation, they’ve only beaten this 23-point handicap in half those games.
Ireland’s average points per game against Italy over that period is 33.33, while the Italians stand at 11.33 points per game.
For you maths buffs out there, that’s an average winning margin of 22 points in the last half-dozen Six Nations outings, just inside the handicap available on Italy.
That, of course, doesn’t take into account the 2015 battle on neutral ground when Ireland claimed a narrow 16-9 win at the Olympic Stadium in London.
4. Italy to receive the first yellow card – 5/4
This old chestnut comes up time after time if you’re Italian, and it’s problem area number one for O’Shea.
Despite leading for a good period against Wales, Saturday’s home side just couldn’t stay on the right side of the referee’s whistle.
They coughed up 16 penalties against the Welsh – four of which were slotted over the bar by Leigh Halfpenny – so it was no surprise to see Andrea Lovotti go to the sin-bin with 10 minutes to go as their infractions mounted.
Italy also conceded a converted try before the final whistle, so that’s 19 points alone that can be directly attributed to poor discipline.
Don’t be surprised if Joe Schmidt looks to exploit this fact, and we fancy someone in Italian blue to see a flash of yellow first.
5. Neither side to hit 30 points or more – 9/4
This is a tough call as Ireland have handed out a few wallopings to Italy in the last few years, but all of them come in the comfortable surrounds of the Aviva Stadium.
In fact you have to go all the way back to the Grand Slam year in 2009 for the last time Ireland went over the 30-point mark in Rome, a 38-9 victory on the day.
The Boys in Green only managed 13 points there in 2011, 15 in 2013’s losing embarrassment and 26 in 2015’s championship-winning campaign – when they actually needed every one of those points at the end of the Six Nations to claim victory.
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