Ireland and France to draw – 22/1
BEFORE YOU ACCUSE us of being unpatriotic ahead of Saturday’s Eiffel Tower-sized battle between Ireland and France in the Six Nations, hear us out.
The reason we’re opening by suggesting you back an Aviva Stadium stalemate is because the numbers suggest you’d struggle to fit a French baguette between these two when it comes to the stats.
The last six meetings between the pair in this tournament have produced two wins and a couple of draws apiece.
Both teams also have a victory in each other’s backyard and, when you delve into the scoring figures, the knot binding them gets even tighter.
Taking those six ties into account, Ireland rack up 16.83 points per game on average when they meet Les Bleus – while France clock up exactly 16 points for their troubles.
Although, if you add in the 2015 Rugby World Cup 24-9 victory for Joe Schmidt’s men, Ireland’s average point advantage stretches to 2.86 over their Gallic counterparts.
Keith Earls to score the first try – 8/1
The Munster man has been a prolific scorer for his country and crossed the whitewash 22 times in his 56 Irish outings to date.
That’s an impressive ratio of a try in every 2.55 games he plays for the national side.
He seems at home in the wing spot in Joe Schmidt’s starting XV at the moment and has landed the opening try for Ireland in his last two run-outs.
That’s why he’s our tip to net the first overall five-pointer.
First score of the game of the match to be an Ireland penalty – 5/4
While the introduction of the new Six Nations bonus-point system has certainly shifted the focus for teams when it comes to their attacking decisions, you’d expect that ‘win by any means necessary’ is all that matters to both Ireland and France.
After all, we’ve already explained above how points are at a high premium between these two, so can they really afford to be throwing them away?
History backs this punt, as Johnny Sexton’s wand-like right boot has provided the first score from the kicking tee in the last three Ireland-France games.
In fact, the opening points in this colossal contest has come from a shot at goal in the last four games, so don’t pay the penalty by not backing it.
No bonus point try – 1/4
Admittedly the price on this one isn’t the best but, after everything we’ve told you so far, if you’re looking for a punting certainty then this is it.
Amazingly, you have to go all the way back to February 2008 for the last time either Ireland or France managed four or more tries against each other as Vincent Clerc tormented the Irish yet again with a hat-trick at the Stade de France and it’s 2006 since the Boys in Green managed the feat.
Eleven bone crunching, bloody and tetchy years have come and gone since then without even the sniff of what would have been a bonus point score.
Ireland to win by 1-5 points – 4/1
If you don’t want to take a drop at goal on the draw, then this punt could be the best place for you to wager your hard earned cash.
When you look at the recent winning margins between the sides, it’s tighter than Donald Trump trying to get an Executive Order through the US courts.
The last half dozen Six Nations games have an average margin of victory of just 2.16 points and when you add in the World Cup battering Ireland dished out to the French it still only 4 points.
Ireland’s home advantage could just be the deciding factor in this one and that’s why we fancying touching down on this one.
Fancy a punt on the Six Nations? Ireland’s biggest bookmaker Paddy Power have the odds on every market – plus when you sign up and bet €10, you’ll get €30 in free bets. Check out Six Nations odds here, or simply download the Paddy Power app for iOS or Android.
For more tips, insight and the odd star columnist, head over to the Paddy Power blog.
