THIS WEEKEND IS one of those rare instances where top-quality cards in both national-hunt and flat codes clash.
The Scottish Grand National takes place in Ayr while the Guineas trials will be the centre of attention in Newbury.
Frankel on Trial
The current 2000 Guineas and Derby favourite Frankel runs in the Greenham, and if he reproduces the sensational performances of last year he will be unstoppable.
However at forecast odds of 1/3 he won’t appeal to too many ordinary punters, especially given that his trainer Henry Cecil has expressed reservations over the yard’s form. On paper his biggest challenger looks to be the smart Strong Suit, who the Coventry Stakes before disappointing thereafter in unsuitable ground. The seven furlong trip should him a little better than the favourite, but it would still take a leap of faith to see him succeed.
The race is probably best watched.
Of more appeal as a betting medium is the Guineas trial race for fillies; the Fred Darling Stakes. It’s always difficult to gauge how a horse will have progressed from two to three, and invariably plenty will not come back as good. Much guess work in involved at this point of the season, but if last year’s form is anything to go by then Pontenuovo is the one to beat. S
he ended the season rated six pounds higher than any of her rivals here today, and her yard has had a winner and a second from three runners so far so the omens are good for her fitness. Michael Stoute’s Cape Dollar is also fancied by the champion trainer.
National Day for Scots
Ayr’s Grand National meeting provides the best of the jumps action, and in the big race Gordon Elliot saddles Chicago Grey in a bid to follow up on his recent Cheltenham Festival victory. He re-opposes with the second from that day in Beshabar, on five pounds worse terms. The pair have obvious claims but this is reflected by their relatively short prices.
The presence of Neptune Collonges means that only eight of the runners get in on their real weight, but if one type of race is to provide a shock it’ll be a National. In fact, 2008 winner Iris de Balme (running again here today) won from 26 pounds out of the handicap, so the other 22 runners’ hopes are not forlorn.
Ouzbeck has been aimed at the race by trainer Emma Lavelle, and his liking for marathon trips on this ground was advertised last year by his victory in the Summer National in Uttoxeter. Another who is of interest at this trip is Blazing Bailey. Once a Grade one winner over hurdles, he hasn’t quite reached the same dizzy heights over the larger obstacles. However, recent forays past the three mile mark on soft ground have yielded impressive results, and there is every chance that the extra distance will bring out improvement in the undoubtedly talented bay. Of those out of the handicap, Merigo and Gone to Lunch hold genuine chances given their previous form in the race.
The Scottish Champion Hurdle may not be quite as illustrious as its Irish or English equivalent, but there are a couple of high class entrants in the guise of Overturn and Mille Chief. It is run as handicap though, so some value may lie in those further down the weights.
Nap of the Day
Pontenuovo looks the pick of the day at 4/1. Her form ties in closely with Dream Ahead who looks a very smart colt, and if she has handled her move to England then she can begin to justify her price of 525,000 gns at the sales. The filly’s stable has been in excellent form and this lends hope that she is fit and ready for action. These races do not always go to plan with so many making their seasonal debut, but considering she is the highest rated in the field, and boasts top class form; she is worth risking at the price.
Each-Way
In the Champion Hurdle Bygone of Birds has a reasonable weight considering he has shown glimpses of serious ability. He has been very inconsistent in the past year, but if he performs in the manner in which he has hinted that he can then 14/1 is generous and compensates for the risk.
In the National itself Blazing Bailey is a big price at 20/1. His form was given a timely boost when Minella Four Star won the Midlands National, and he is well worth an attempt at this marathon trip. His mark of 153 is a career high over fences, but is still 10 pounds below his best over hurdles.
