THE FLAT SEASON kicks into top gear today in Newmarket with the running of one of racing’s most iconic occasions; the 2000 Guineas.
Frankel Speaking
Most of the hype and headlines in the lead-up have been concerned with the winter favourite, and current 4-7 shot Frankel. Henry Cecil’s stable-star was imperious last term, his unbeaten season culminating with an impressive victory in the Dewhurst Stakes where he cemented his place as one of the highest rated juveniles in modern times.
His reappearance in Newbury a few weeks back reassured fans that the colt had trained on, and his facile victory has meant that most of his competitors now travel in hope rather than expectation.
As impressive as he has been, Frankel will have to do more than turn up to win. In the last ten years only one favourite has obliged, and that was the mercurial George Washington. Horses can improve a lot from two to three, and so many of the runners are making their seasonal debut that it’s impossible to know who’s at peak fitness or has progressed over the last few months.
One of the most likely candidates to benefit from an off-day form the favourite would be Jessica Harrington’s Pathfork. The unbeaten colt won Ireland’s top two-year-old race in the form of the National Stakes last year, where he was the only horse to inflict defeat on Casamento to date.
While in time he may need further than a mile, he will likely make use of his stamina today and race prominently. If he gets first run on Frankel, Cecil’s horse will have to work hard to overturn him.
Casamento re-opposes in new colours; and is trained by Godolphin’s young hope Mahmood Al Zarooni. He has been talked very much of as a Derby hope, but he possesses enough speed to make his presence felt here today and is ridden by Frankie Dettori. The Italian jockey was not overly bullish about his mount’s chances of winning this morning however, and gave his verdict that the favourite wouldn’t be beaten.
Of the rest, the Coolmore horse must be respected given his connections’ enviable record in the race. Aidan O’Brien will hope that Roderic O’Connor will follow the likes of Henrythenavigator, Footstepsinthes and Rock of Gibraltar and become yet another superstar for the all-powerful stable. Although a Group One winner over a mile in France last year, he may lack the gears to challenge the principals this time around. He has work to do to switch placings with Frankel on their Dewhurst running last year, but progress is not inconceivable.
Nap of the Day
Pathfork is a suggested alternative to the short-priced favourite. He did nothing wrong last term, and his trainer has been very upbeat about his progress over the winter.
Of all the runners he is the one that strikes as a real improver, last year he gave the impression that he only gave just enough to win.
His owners are America and at one staged favoured a tilt at the Kentucky Derby, so it’s a tip in itself that he now goes for this race instead. If the favourite doesn’t pick up, of meets trouble in running; Pathfork can take advantage given his prominent style of racing. 7/1 is fair.
It’s worth keeping an eye out for offers; some firms are issuing refunds on any horse that comes second to Frankel.
Each-Way
Namecheck is an interesting runner in the first race at Newmarket. The colt has been off the track for a year, and has only four starts in his entire career. Undoubtedly he is open to progress, and given that his last start was in listed company it’s interesting that he starts off in a handicap this year. It may be that connections feel he is off a competitive mark. Mahmood Al Zarooni’s string have been in good form, and 12/1 is tempting in a race that mainly features exposed older horses.
