A THRILLING WEEKEND of European rugby came to a heart-stopping finish with two games decided by last-ditch tries, games that will have a major impact on the final shake-up for quarter-final places.
Before we go right ahead and look at the standings, a reminder: the quarter-finalists will be made up of the winners of all five pools plus the three second-placed teams with the best records.
If teams from the same pool are level on points, the top side will be determined by the side with the best of the head to head encounters between the two. If teams from different pools are level on points, the side with the best points difference (points scored minus points conceded) will be ranked higher.
So, here’s how things look before round six.
We hear you Munster fans! You didn’t make the BT Sport graphic of the top 12, but you are there in 13th place with slender a mathematical possibility of making the quarters.
So add this onto the dirty dozen above:
13. Munster — Points difference: -5. Tries for: 11. Points: 10
Let’s begin with how Munster can pull off a great escape into the knockout stages
It’s very simple (honest!): as they have 10 points, the most Munster can finish on is 15 points – which they probably will get to considering they play Treviso away.
First and foremost, Munster must beat Stade Francais into the runners-up spot in Pool 4 and to do that they need Stade to lose without a bonus point at home to Leicester (who are already qualified).
If the above comes to pass, then Munster could start looking at other results.
Who else can possibly lose to a 15-point team? Wasps? Not really. Though they are on 15 points they have a very healthy +73 points difference and would need to suffer an almighty trouncing at home to Leinster to come in to Munster’s radar.
That leaves two spots up for grabs. And Munster need just five of six results to go their way to take one of them.
- A big, big bonus point win in Treviso
- Stade Francais to lose without a bonus point at home to Leicester
Those two are mandatory, after that they need any three of these four outcomes:
- Clermont to lose at home to Bordeaux without a bonus point for either
- Exeter to beat Ospreys without a bonus and take second place in pool 2
- Ulster to lose or draw without a bonus point.
- Oh, and Northampton to fail to get any points away to Scarlets
No biggie.
If your head’s melted, don’t worry. Ulster’s plan of attack is a lot more straightforward
In the above scenario we leave Ulster on 15 points, but at home to Oyonnax they will be backing themselves to get all five points on offer. So let’s work on the assumption that Ulster will get to 18 points and improve their +7 points difference a little along the way.
Ulster can take aim at all three of the teams currently in the best runners-up spots and we’ve discussed some of their permutations above, but here’s how their results could favour Ulster.
Pool 5: If Leinster stop Wasps from winning then they will end up with a maximum of 17 points. If Wasps beat Leinster, then Ulster can’t catch them, but they could catch Toulon if the champions fail to win in Bath and slip to second place in the pool.
Pool 4: If Stade Francais can get a win at home to Leicester then it’s lights out for Munster and one less spot for Ulster to slide in to as the French champs’ +53 points difference is likely too high for the northern province to overtake. Any other result is great news for Irish rugby.
Pool 3: The Saints are a nose ahead of Ulster in the current standings, and they can keep that distance if they win with a bonus point away to Scarlets. Anything less though, would open the door for Ulster. If Ulster and Saints were to finish with 18 points each, the province has the benefit of an 18-point head-start.
Pool 2: Let’s stop being silly, Clermont will beat Bordeaux at home and that would be enough to keep them ahead of Ulster. What’s not clear though, is whether Ospreys can hold on to top spot in the pool — an outcome that could well knock Ulster out.
Should Exeter beat Ospreys they would hold the Welsh side to 16 or (with a bonus point) 17 points or maybe even take over the runners-up spot by getting a try bonus of their own to leave them on 16. Whoever finishes second in that scenario, would still be behind Ulster.
Still not clear? Don’t worry, it’ll all be sorted this time next week.
Predicted outcome1. Saracens: 28 points
2. Racing Metro: 26 points
3. Leicester: 24 points
4. Toulon: 20 points
5. Clermont: 19 points
6. Northampton: 19 points
7. Stade Francais: 18 points
8. Ulster: 18 points
