Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts – 6pm
AFTER STARTING THE season with three impressive victories over the Ravens, Flacons and Titans, Marvin Lewis and the Cincinnati Bengals must be curing the bye week as a crushing defeat to the Patriots was followed by a tie with the Panthers in the two weeks since.
For a defence as dominant as the Bengals had last season to give up 80 points in two weeks is worrying for all involved, especially when facing Andrew Luck who leads the league in touchdowns (17), passing yards (1,972) and passing attempts per game (44).
However, Cincinnati have been decent against the pass this season, with only the Lions (5) giving up less than their six touchdowns trough the air and only the 49ers (55.9%) allowing defences complete a lower percentage of passes (57.9%).
Instead it has been the run game that has troubled the Bengals giving up 4.8 yards per carry to opposition teams and over 140 yards per game on the ground (both 28th in the NFL).
Can a Colts side averaging 3.7 yards per carry (24th) and just 115 yards (16th) on the ground adapt their game enough to take advantage? Having already scored two touchdowns on the ground this season, don’t be surprised if Luck calls his own number n the redzone this Sunday.
Line: The Colts are -3.
Best bet: Given the high-powered nature of both offences, over 59.5 at 9/4 could be good value.
Fantasy advice: With AJ Green likely out, Mohamed Sanu (only owned in 66% of leagues) is fresh off a 120-yard, one TD performance.
Verdict: There’s nothing lucky about the Colts. These are two genuine AFC contenders and Indy have to win. Colts by 5.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys – 9.25pm
After years and years of flattering to deceive, the defeat of the Seahawks in Seattle last weekend shows the Dallas Cowboys finally have to be taken seriously in the NFC and, don’t worry, I’m as surprised as anyone.
Interestingly, the Cowboys defence that was so terrible last year (and lost its two best players this year) has received a lot of plaudits this season but are actually giving up the exact same amount of yardage per play (6.1) as they were in 2013.
The difference for Dallas is that the defence is on the field for, on average, 12 less plays per game and so are now giving up ‘just’ 342.5 yards per game through six outings this year compared to a league worst 415 ypg in 2013.
This is because the Cowboy’s offence has increased their time of possession from 29 minutes last year to nearly 35 minutes this season. That doesn’t seem like a lot but it means one less drive for their opponents and, therefore, one less opportunity to score.
This increase is almost entirely down to running back DeMarco Murray’s record-breaking start to the season. He’s already had 159 carries in six games and his 785 yards is 243 more than his nearest challenger.
Against a Giants team giving up 116 yards per game against the run and that has already conceded seven touchdowns on the ground – only Atlanta’s 12 ranks worse – don’t expect the Dallas gameplan to deviate from the script this weekend.
Line: The Cowboys are -3.
Best bet: You can still get DeMarco Murray at 5/1 for MVP.
Fantasy advice: Despite facing Murray in training every week, the Cowboys are terrible against the run so Andrew Williams could be worth a start if you’re struggling with bye-weeks.
Verdict: They may not be America’s team any more but they’re still a lot better than the Giants. Cowboys by 8+
Other games and picks*
Atlanta Falcons @ Baltimore Ravens -6.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Buffalo Bills -6
Miami Dolphins @ Chicago Bears -3
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions -2
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers -6
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars +5
Seattle Seahawks @ St Louis Rams +6.5
Tennessee Titans @ Washington -5
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers -3.5
Arizona Cardinals @ Oakland Raiders +3.5
San Francisco 49ers @ Denver Broncos -7
Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers -3
As always, the team in bold is picked to beat the spread, not necessarily win the game.
