FOR ALL THAT the focus in the build-up to this bout has been on one man, it is arguably a fixture richer in dimensions and sub-plots than any other game in the tournament.
To give him his due, let’s start with the most immediate: Cristiano Ronaldo. Tonight, after a club season he has dominated, he will face most of his regular Barcelona rivals and many of his everyday Real Madrid teammates. And, after admirably rising to the stage against an admittedly declined Dutch side and an underwhelming Czech team, the one remaining question is whether he can finally dominate a match of this magnitude. Settle this and all of the arguments will be settled too.
That very question, however, gives rise to something deeper than Ronaldo’s personal dramas. Essentially, this game is a battle between the individual and the collective.
Although not as fractured as the Dutch — in any sense — Portugal aren’t too far off this description of a ‘tactically broken’ team. They are more balanced than the Netherlands, but the links between the different parts of their team aren’t exactly fluid, with that emphasised by Ronaldo’s individualism. On the other side, then, they’ll have the face what has arguably been the most cohesive and integrated collective that international football has ever seen.
Indeed, that difference is reflected in the achievements. Portugal are looking to make up for where the Golden Generation failed and win their first ever international trophy.
Spain, of course, are looking to achieve international football’s impressive ever feat: a third major trophy in a row.
And, as the Spanish get closer to that historically magnificent milestone, it’s worth considering the stats that have taken them so far.
It’s six years since they have conceded a goal in the knock-out stage of a competition. And, while that has only involved eight games, the aggregate score has been 10-0.
That, really, is the ultimate point of all those possession stats. There’s arguably never been a team that have controlled games to the extent Spain have. And, as such, there’s definitely never been a team that have forced such an extreme defensive approach in every single opposition side they have played.
As the stats prove, though, that approach has so far failed on every occasion.
There are two caveats here, though. For one, those six years – combined with the demands and exertions of the Clasico clubs – have taken Spain to the physical and mental brink. And that will only be accentuated tonight by the fact they’ve only had four days since their last game – which also involved a lot of gruelling travel – while Portugal have had six. That accumulation of fatigue may force the kind of errors we don’t usually see from Spain. And, if so, Portugal appear better equipped than most to exploit it. At the back, they have the foundations of a feral defence. Their midfield is at once abrasive and technically adept. Ahead of that, they’ve got the most talented goalscorer in the tournament.
But, in spite of all that, the question is not really whether Spain can stop Ronaldo. It’s whether Ronaldo can get enough of the ball.
The simple facts behind the two teams illustrate that, really, Portugal are still going to need a lotof fortune to beat Spain. That’s how good the world champions are.
And that, notoriously, is another dimension that you can’t really depend on.
Key battle: right in front of Portugal’s centre-halves, where they will need to simply fill the gaps to frustrate Spain.
Key question: can Ronaldo banish the criticisms for good by dominating a match with so many dimensions or will Spain just dominate the ball to deny him?
Recent scoring form: Spain 2.8 goals a game; Portugal 2.6 goals a game
Recent defensive form: Spain 0.6 goals conceded a game; Portugal 1 goal a game
History lesson: Although Spain have the far superior record in their historical head-to-head – winning 15 of 34 and only losing seven – the two countries have traded eliminations on their last two tournament appearances: Portugal won the 2004 group-stage decider in this competition; Spain won the 2010 World Cup last-16 match.
Pointers
- Spain, obviously, are looking to reach their third final in a row and the fourth European Championship showpiece in their history
- Portugal are looking to reach the final of the European Championships for the second time
- Portugal have hit the frame of the goal six times in this tournament, more than any other side in European Championship history
- Spain are 18 competitive games without defeat
- Xavi has played more passes than any other player at a European Championship
Prediction: Portugal 0-2 Spain
