What can the Broncos’ offence do to win?
Look outside the numbers
WHEN IT COMES to football, the NFL in particular, it doesn’t have to be true to be believed.
Take, for example, the common consensus that because Peyton Manning’s arm-strength has diminished over the past two years he’s now a game-manager who needs to throw short, safe passes between the hash marks tonight if the Denver Broncos are to have any chance of winning Super Bowl 50.
It sounds correct, so it must be true, right?
But what if I told you that, when Manning throws the ball towards the middle of the field, he’s been picked off 10 times compared to just six touchdowns. Given that every time the 39-year-old one-time Super Bowl winner looks straight ahead this evening he’s going to see Luke Kuechly — the league’s best linebacker, especially in pass coverage — that’s a worrying prospect for Denver fans.
Here he is throwing a pass between the hash marks that Minnesota Vikings linebacker Anthony Barr picks off:
And here he is being picked off by Karlos Dansby in the middle of the field again:
So, despite what many think, the secret to any success Manning will possibly have in the passing game tonight will come down to him throwing the ball to the outside.
With Josh Norman only capable of taking care of one of Denver’s two elite receivers – Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders — Manning, as we outlined earlier this week, is going to have to take advantage of match-ups involving Carolina’s two weak links in Robert McClain and Cortland Finnegan.
Break off at least one big run
With the Panthers being the only top-five run defence team to have given up 10 runs of more than 20-yards this season and Denver ranking in the top half of the league when it comes to breaking off big runs (11), there’s a very good chance the rushing game could be pivotal in a Broncos victory.
Up 17-12 against the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game, CJ Anderson ripped off the 30-yard run above on a crucial third down to put the Broncos in field goal range, a three-pointer that would ultimately send Denver to the Super Bowl.
He’ll need at least one similar play against a Panthers defence that’s prone to giving them up and, in what could be a close game, that might prove crucial.
What can the Panthers’ offence do to win?
Let Cam run
Most dual-threat quarterbacks do the majority of their running on scrambles after a passing opportunity has failed to present itself. Indeed even a player like Russell Wilson didn’t have a single designed run between the tackles this season. Cam Newton, according to ProFootballFocus, had 32.
All told, of the 132 times Newton ran with the ball on his team’s path to the Super Bowl, just 22% of them were scrambles after the designed play had broken down.
A lot of focus on the Denver defence tends to centre around their excellent pass rush, but they’re no slouches against the run either, ranking third in the NFL during the regular season. However, the simple fact is that they’ve yet to face a quarterback who can do what Newton can.
Unlike Denver, Newton has faced a defence as good against the run, if not better, than the Broncos when he helped his side jump into a massive half-time lead against the Seattle Seahawks. And while the quarterback only had 11 runs for three yards, the threat of his feet alone was enough to free up Jonathan Stewart on the 59-yard run above.
It’s hard to describe what it is that makes the Panthers quarterback so special. His size certainly helps. He is, as former Connacht assistant coach Dan McFarland said, essentially a second-row forward playing American football. This certainly helps his ability to ‘fall forward’ on power runs between the tackles.
Get rid of the ball much quicker than they’re used to
Only four quarterbacks in the NFL take longer than Newton to get rid of the football on passing plays. According to PFF, Newton’s time to throw this year was 2.83 seconds, significantly longer than the 2.5 seconds league average.
We saw how effective the Broncos defence was against Tom Brady — one of the quicker quarterbacks in the league in terms of time to throw — so they’ll be licking their lips at the prospect of coming up against Newton who looks a much different passer when facing pressure.
Here, the pressure is coming straight up the middle with center Fernando Velasco beaten by the Cardinals’ Rodney Gunter and having to get rid of the ball earlier than he’d like.
The result is a floating pass picked off by Patrick Peterson that could have swung momentum in the game had Carson Palmer not thrown an interception of his own on the very next play.
Mike Remmers, the Carolina right tackle, looked the weak link on the offensive line coming into the playoffs having been personally responsible for six sacks during the regular season. However, he’s yet to give up a single sack in the postseason but huge question marks remain over his match-up with Von Miller who has 6.5 sacks in his last six games.
Indeed, it’s so significant, the winner could decide the result of the Super Bowl.
