FEW TEAMS ENTER the playoffs with as much momentum as New Orleans and that could be the key in the shootout in the Superdome. Steven O’Rourke guides us through this weekend’s wild-card action.
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints
Sunday, 8 January, 1am (Irish time)
There are probably only two teams left in contention for Super Bowl XLVI who can match the New Orleans Saints in a shoot-out.
One is the defending champion Green Bay Packers and the other is the Detroit Lions who travel to the Superdome this weekend for their first playoff fixture in 13 years.
This is not a game to watch if you like defence though. Between them, Matthew Stafford and Drew Brees amassed a whopping 10,514 passing yards and 87 touchdowns during the regular season.
Brees, of course, smashed Dan Marino’s 27 year old passing record but Stafford was no slouch himself; his 5,038 yards making him one of just three QBs to pass the 5,000 yard mark this year (the other being Tom Brady).
The key to Brees’ success this season, as it is with all good quarterbacks, has been great pass protection. It’s not impossible to get to Brees but, given that he has averaged just one sack in every 39 pass attempts at home this season, it’s a pretty rare occurrence.
Making their task even more difficult is the fact the Detroit traditionally use just four players in their pass rush (35 of their 41 sacks have come from their defensive line).
However, this does allow the Lions to put seven players in coverage and explains why they have more than twice (34) the number of takeaways New Orleans (16) have managed this year.
Verdict: Though Detroit are well used to playing indoors, their lack of experience at this stage of the season will make it difficult for them on the road. The Saints will want to avenge last season’s humiliating loss to the Seahawks at this stage. Saints by 10.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
Saturday, 7 January, 9.30pm (Irish time)
From two of the best quarterbacks in the league to two of the most untested. TJ Yates and Andy Dalton have done a great job getting their teams to the playoffs (the former for the very first time) but doubts remain over their ability to go deep into the postseason.
Despite the return of star wide receiver Andre Johnson, the Texans are very much a run-first team and were ranked second in the NFL with 153 rushing yards per game thanks to the efforts of Arian Foster and Ben Tate.
The Bengals know how to run the ball themselves and have averaged over 100 yards per game over the last nine games, thanks mainly to the dual threat of Cedric Benson and Bernard Scott.
This matchup will probably come down to the Bengals ability to stop the run without leaving Andre Johnson open in the secondary on play action passes. A task easier said than done.
Verdict: Neither team have momentum but that shouldn’t count for much. The Bengals have done well just to get here but the Texans have too many great players to be happy with just a wild-card berth. Texans by 5+
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants
Sunday, 8 January, 6pm (Irish time)
These two teams meet for the very first time in the postseason with many pundits believing the G Men can go all the way to repeating their Super Bowl XLII victory.
Entering the playoffs 3-1 in their last four games, including victories over the neighbouring Jets and divisional foes the Cowboys, the Giants are well placed to pose a threat in the hotly contested NFC.
However, while Atlanta have struggled to run the football this year (Michael Turner broke many fantasy owners hearts by averaging just 56 yards a game), they will face a Giants defence ranked 19th against the run and giving up more than 121 yards per game.
This time last year the Falcons entered the playoffs as the number one seed and subsequently got thrashed by the unfancied Green Bay Packers. After a 10-6 season, there aren’t many tipping Atlanta to do much this year.
That said, if they can take Victor Cruz (who leads the league in yards after catches) out of the game, Atlanta have the defence (eight against the run in the NFL) to spring a surprise.
Verdict: There’s very little to separate these two teams and it will be a low scoring affair. However, I just edge the Falcons in this one. Atlanta by 3.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos
Sunday, 8 January, 9.30pm (Irish time)
Given Ben Roethlisberger’s injury and Tim Tebow’s ineffectiveness over the past month, this could conceivably end up being one of the lowest scoring playoff games of all time.
I doubt very much it will set a new record (dating from the Dallas Cowboys 5-0 victory over the Detroit Lions in 1970) but it could come close.
However, the low scoring nature of this affair will be as much to do with the strength of both defences as it is to the woes of their respective quarterbacks.
The Steelers finished the season as the top ranked defence in the league though they are only ranked 9th against the run thanks, in part, to some early season missteps.
With Tebowmania coming to a grinding halt, the Denver defence led by Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil will have to lead the way, putting Big Ben under pressure early and often.
Verdict: The Bronco’s may have only finished 1-3 but they’re still here and in the rarefied air of Mile High anything could happen. That said, I still think the Steelers will have too much experience. Pittsburgh by 6.
Steven O’Rourke is the Offensive Co-ordinator of Tullamore Phoenix American Football Club, winners of the IAFL DV8s national title in 2010 and 2011. Tullamore are always recruiting new players so, if you’d like to play football and not just read about it, Steven would love to hear from you.
