David Sneyd

SO, HOW DO you feel after the Republic of Ireland’s 1-0 win over Armenia last night?

Well, it doesn’t really matter. Only results do, and that is why Heimir Hallgrímsson is still manager today and will remain so for next month’s decisive World Cup window.

The powers that be in the FAI would have left Aviva Stadium relieved before waking up this morning relatively satisfied with the state of play. It’s a precarious situation given there is no longer a margin for the kind of errors management and players have already been guilty of in this campaign.

The FAI’s delicate kind of satisfaction is down to an acceptance that three points was the sole objective of consequence last night, and it had been noted how rarely that has been achieved.

That is maybe why it’s understandable – perhaps even reasonable – to take such an outcome by any means necessary. That would appear to be the feeling among Hallgrímsson and the FAI.

The outcome means the manager and those above him in the pecking order at headquarters in west Dublin now look to next month’s games with Portugal and Hungary in very simple terms: win or bust. The never-ending cycle reaches a familiar breaking point.

There is an acceptance that the manner of the display and the tactics used are simply an indication of Ireland’s place in a new European landscape – one that sees Albania, North Macedonia, and Bosnia-Herzegovina on the cusp of a play-off spot.

The shortcomings and concerns about Hallgrímsson capabilities to maximise the raw materials he is working with during his tenure have steadily grown but the Icelander is unperturbed and undeterred.

It’s taken 14 games but he now has settled on a singularly defensive plan of action within a 5-4-1 formation that is here to stay. We just don’t know for how much longer.

Had Hallgrímsson nailed down his methodology earlier and not continually wavered between personnel there could be an argument made for a grand plan beginning to come to fruition. Instead, with two games remaining in this World Cup qualifying campaign it feels like matters are about to come to a head rather than reach a stunning conclusion.

And yet.

Ireland welcome Portugal to Dublin next month before travelling to Hungary away with their fate in their own hands – slippery as that grip may feel.

Even within the camp there is a genuine – albeit intangible – belief that they are capable of producing a scalp when Portugal arrive.

That’s despite the evidence, which is both historical and continually mounting in recent months. As was referenced before kick-off, Ireland’s last home victory in World Cup qualification was a 2-0 win over Moldova in October 2017.

Eight years later, and in a month when the 10th anniversary of beating then world-champions Germany was also marked ahead of last Saturday’s trip to Lisbon, the countries Ireland have beaten in home qualifiers since that 1-0 triumph, including those for the European Championships, is as follows; Georgia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Gibraltar.

Armenia can now be added to the list, one that is a stark reminder of Ireland’s own diminishing status.

Last night’s performance won’t have brought great reason for optimism outside of the dressing room and it would also be naïve to think that results alone will solely determine Hallgrímsson’s future.

Just like the FAI cited how his predecessor Stephen Kenny was relieved of his duties partly due to in-game management, Hallgrímsson will also be judged as such.

There are some blatant facts around Europe’s 12 qualifying groups that even the most rudimentary of research shows. For example, 11 of the 12 top seeded teams are top of their group. Second seeds Norway are the exception and they have had to be exceptional with six wins out of six and scoring 29 goals. Despite that, it’s still only a three-point lead over Italy with two games remaining.

Ireland are among seven third seeds who are third in their respective group while there are four currently occupying a play-off place – Scotland, Bosnia-Herzegovina, North Macedonia, and Albania.

Fourth seeds Kosovo are the country with the biggest over performance as they are second in a group that has already seen Sweden (second seeds) sack manager Jon Dahl Tomasson because they are stuck to the bottom.

Faroe Islands, also fourth seeds, have caught the eye in Group L with four wins from seven games, although they must beat Croatia away on the final night next month and hope Czechia drop points at home to Gibraltar.

It is in that group where Montenegro are the only third seeds underperforming.

Ireland have two more games to exceed expectations at a time when they seem even lower than before last night’s victory.