IT’S EASY TO be cynical and baulk at the recent Sky Sports advert promoting today’s Chelsea-Man City game, with the channel’s pundits speculating how much of an impact the match could have on the Premier League title race. But given that the channel’s main interest is attracting viewers, there will inevitably be an element of hype to these promos.
However, it is far from outlandish to suggest that this evening’s game could have a significant influence on the title race. Recent Premier League history shows that matches between title-challenging sides can often have a decisive impact on proceedings.
The classic example is probably Newcastle versus Manchester United in the 1995-96 season. Newcastle had been widely expected to secure their first-ever Premier League title earlier in the season, as they held a 12-point lead at the top in January.
However, Kevin Keegan’s side subsequently began to falter and United’s famous victory at St James’ Park, in which Eric Cantona scored the only goal with a superb volley, added to the sense that the Magpies were choking amid the huge burden of expectation.
In contrast with the Tyneside club’s dire form, it was United’s ninth successive victory and sixth in the league. Even though the Red Devils still trailed their rivals by a point after the game, it seemed as if the title was destined to end up at Old Trafford from that day on. And so it proved, as Alex Ferguson’s side built on this vital victory and won seven and drew one of their last nine games to finish four points above Newcastle and secure Premier League glory.
It was a somewhat similar story in the 2011-12 season, though on this occasion, the dramatic turnaround came at United’s expense. With six fixtures remaining, the Red Devils were eight points ahead of City. However, the Old Trafford outfit proceeded to experience a mini collapse, suffering a defeat and a draw in their next three games, and allowing their neighbours back into title contention.
City’s 1-0 win at the Etihad Stadium over United sent Roberto Mancini’s side ahead of their rivals on goal difference and consequently felt pivotal, even if they did proceed to almost throw the league away by making the task of beating relegation-threatened QPR look exceedingly difficult.
Of course, there are also exceptions to the rule. Liverpool looked set to land the league title last season after beating fellow contenders Manchester City at Anfield late in the campaign, only to slip up (no pun intended) against Chelsea and allow Pellegrini’s men to come back from the dead.
Today’s match is probably less likely to be as meaningful as any of the aforementioned games mainly because there is so much of the season left to play in comparison with the other examples — that’s not to say it won’t be crucial, however.
Both sides have looked more fragile than usual of late. Chelsea started this month in the worst possible fashion, with a shambolic 5-3 defeat to Tottenham, while they also got dumped out of the FA Cup by Bradford and were not at their best in midweek, despite progressing to the League Cup final at the expense of Liverpool.
(Nemanja Matic is likely to be a key player in today’s clash)
City, meanwhile, are coming into this game off the back of a surprise 2-0 Premier League loss at home to Arsenal, and an even more surprising defeat by Middlesbrough in the FA Cup. In fact, they have won just one of their last four league matches in total — disappointing form by anyone’s standards.
Consequently, the Etihad outfit arguably need to win more so than their opponents, in order to restore their confidence as much as anything else, while Mourinho would probably be relatively content with a draw.
A victory would put Pellegrini’s men right back in the title race and could provide them with the momentum needed to finish the season strongly. Conversely, a loss could be a big blow, as it would leave City eight points behind the leaders, and closer in the table to third-place Southampton than the Londoners. Even with 15 league games apiece left to play thereafter, it would be uncharacteristic of a manager as experienced and pragmatic as Mourinho to let such a sizeable lead slip.
Chelsea, nonetheless, are looking more vulnerable than usual in this instance. In spite of their 100% home form and the fact they have conceded just three goals all season at Stamford Bridge in the league, star striker Diego Costa is suspended and midfield maestro Cesc Fabregas is an injury doubt for the game.
Yet although arguably their two most important attackers could both be missing, this may not be as significant a factor as some people presume.
Despite Chelsea’s well-documented strength on their own turf, Jose Mourinho will likely adopt a safety-first approach today. Expect a style more akin to the one demonstrated in their famous 2-0 victory at Anfield last year, as opposed to the type of attacking masterclasses they have often demonstrated this season.
The game is therefore likely to be decided by the strength of Chelsea’s defence and their ability to combat City’s forwards, rather than their equally impressive attack. And Fabregas’ possible absence could give the Portuguese manager an excuse to play an extra sitting midfielder — Jon Obi-Mikel or Ramires perhaps.
It was certainly all about defence last season, when Chelsea went to the Etihad and won 1-0, ending City’s 100% record in the league there in the process, with Nemanja Matic making his full debut and delivering a sign of things to come with an accomplished man-of-the-match performance.
Accordingly, the likes of David Silva and Sergio Aguero will need to be sharper than ever to overcome the defensive wall likely to greet them this evening. But if they do, the psychological advantage it would hand them might just be enough to inspire the reigning champions to retain their title come May. Otherwise, it may take an improbable Newcastle-esque collapse for anyone other than Chelsea to prevail.
– First published 08.15
