1. Can Shane Long break his goalscoring duck?
FOLLOWING AN EXCELLENT season last year in which he got into double goalscoring figures in the Premier League for the first time in his career, Shane Long’s start to this campaign has been less eye-catching.
In comparison with 17 goals in 47 appearances in all competitions last year, Long has yet to score in 12 games this season, with new Southampton boss Claude Puel at times opting for alternatives in attack.
Puel’s ostensible reluctance to trust Long is emphasised by the fact that the Tipperary native has yet to complete 90 minutes in the Premier League this season, while he hasn’t started in the league since the 18 September clash with Swansea, when he was taken off after 54 minutes.
Long had been linked with a move to Everton in the summer, but ultimately opted to sign a new contract at Southampton, but perhaps he might have been better off linking up with his old boss Ronald Koeman at the Toffees, given his indifferent form since the Dutchman left the Saints.
Indeed, the 29-year-old’s goalscoring drought for club and country extends as far back as May, when he netted in Ireland’s 1-1 friendly draw with Holland.
But with Robbie Keane now retired and not too many obvious alternatives in the forward department, Ireland could really do with Long rediscovering his goalscoring touch against Georgia tonight — the Boys in Green are sorely in need of a prolific striker to get them over the line against the weaker international sides.
2. Will Ireland continue excellent home record?
During the days of Jack Charlton and Mick McCarthy in particular, Lansdowne Road was considered a fortress, with the Irish team rarely losing there.
This factor has threatened to return under Martin O’Neill, with Ireland securing big wins over Germany and Bosnia at the Aviva during the last 12 months.
In competitive matches under O’Neill, Ireland remain unbeaten at home. In their last campaign, the Boys in Green won four and drew two Euro 2016 qualification matches, and a similarly positive record will undoubtedly be needed in order for them to progress this time around.
While O’Neill’s side adopted a conspicuously cagey approach in their last match away to Serbia, completing just 94 out of 138 attempted passes, the manager has this week acknowledged that the onus will be on Ireland to attack against a Georgian side whose biggest strength is defensive resilience.
3. Have Georgia improved significantly?
After the draw was made for the World Cup qualifiers, the consensus seemed to suggest that Ireland were given a decent group.
While it is true that they avoided the footballing superpowers, and that Wales and Austria represent tricky-but-beatable opponents, they were at least unlucky to draw Georgia as sixth seeds, with Vladimír Weiss’ side generally perceived as a team on the up, while missing out on minnows such as Andorra, Liechtenstein and San Marino.
In addition, their Euro 2016 campaign was not as bad as the second-from-bottom finish suggests.
The Georgians are admittedly occasionally prone to falling apart, as the two 4-0 Euro 2016 qualification losses to Poland illustrated, but even in both those matches, they held the Poles 0-0 at half-time only to be undone by a couple of late goals that flattered their opponents. Meanwhile, they were beaten by one-goal margins against Ireland (twice) and Germany.
Moreover, in addition to beating both Spain and Scotland in recent times, Georgia were unlucky to lose 2-1 to Austria in their opening World Cup qualifier last month, while they have a decent mix of experience and promising youngsters within their squad.
They’ll need little reminder having experienced a couple of scares in the seven times they’ve faced Georgia in the last 13 years, but Ireland will need to be close to their best in order to earn all three points this evening.
4. How disastrous would dropped points be?
It’s too early in the campaign to suggest that Ireland dropping points tonight would be fatal to their hopes of World Cup qualification, but they would surely struggle to recover from the psychological impact of such a setback.
Although Georgia are not as bad as their 137th-place Fifa ranking suggests, they remain at best the second-worst team in the group. Consequently, if Ireland can’t beat them at home, what hope do they have against Wales and Austria?
What’s also important to note is that only the eight best runners-up out of nine qualify for a play-off spot, so the more points Ireland pick up the better, in order avoided the dreaded fate of being the worst second-place side.
Should the unthinkable happen and Ireland end up losing or drawing this evening, O’Neill will likely point to the team’s dropped points at home to Scotland in the Euro 2016 qualifying campaign, when the outlook appeared similarly hopeless, but the Boys in Green ultimately progressed regardless.
In reality though, dropped points would be a serious blow to morale and leave Ireland with a significant uphill task in order to reach Russia.
5. How technical a game will Ireland play?
Some people have argued that Ireland’s negative football against Serbia was nothing new and that’s certainly true to a degree.
Ireland have generally tended to play a more defensive, long-ball-based game away from home under Martin O’Neill, as well as with most other past managers.
Yet even by the Boys in Green’s standards, in terms of passes attempted and completed, last month’s match represented a dramatic low in the O’Neill era.
Ireland’s previous record-worst since O’Neill took charge was away to Scotland in November 2014, when they completed 164 of their 209 passes. Yet even this stat seems relatively impressive when compared with 94 completed passes out of 138 in Serbia.
However, as Leicester demonstrated in the Premier League last season, ball possession and success do not always go hand in hand.
There has also been some evidence to suggest that possession football does not necessarily suit Ireland’s game — by far their best passing stats at the Euros (278 completed passes out of 337 attempted) coincided with their worst performance against Belgium.
Nonetheless, in the last campaign, Ireland completed over 300 passes in both games against Georgia (their highest success rate in this area apart from matches against Gibraltar), so it’s expected that tonight’s encounter will be considerably different to the Serbia clash.
A hint in how Ireland intend to play will be evident in the starting XI, as a starting midfield featuring Wes Hoolahan and Robbie Brady is likely to keep the ball better than one with, say, James McClean and Glenn Whelan figuring prominently.
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