HE MAY HAVE come within a shot of recording just the third 63 in Masters history, but Jordan Spieth is very unlikely to be donning the green jacket come Sunday evening.
Indeed, just once in the past 30 years has the man leading after 18 holes, Trevor Immelman in 2008), gone on to win the tournament and only four times in history — Craig Wood (1941), Arnold Palmer (1960), Jack Nicklaus (1972), Raymond Floyd (1976) — has anyone holding the outright lead on Thursday won at Augusta.
Instead, if recent history is anything to go by, it will be someone else in the top ten who will be crowned the first Major winner of the year this weekend.
Here are the eventual winners and their position after round one over the past nine years:
- 2006 – Phil Mickelson, tied fourth, three shots behind the leader
- 2007 – Zach Johnson, tied fifth, two shots behind the leaders
- 2008 – Trevor Immelman, tied first, level with Justin Rose
- 2009 – Angel Cabrera, tied six, three shots behind the leader
- 2010 – Phil Mickelson, tied second, one shot behind the leader
- 2011 – Charl Schwartzel, tied seventh, four shots behind the leaders
- 2012 – Bubba Watson, tied fourth, two shots behind the leader
- 2013 – Adam Scott, tied tenth, three shots behind the leader
- 2014 – Bubba Watson, tied second, one shot behind the leader
As you can see above, the news is especially good Ernie Els, Jason Day, Justin Rose and Charley Hoffman as a player within three shots of the leader starting their second round has won eight of the last nine tournaments.
Indeed, the last time the Masters winner was not in the top ten after Thursday came back in 2005 when Tiger Woods shot an opening round 74 before producing a stunning 66 on day two, eventually winning the tournament thanks, in part, to one of the greatest shots the course has ever seen:
Craig Stadler (75) in 1982, and Ian Woosnam (72) in 1991 have also shown that the eventual winner can come from well down the field but Rory McIlory will have to shoot around 67/66 today to stand any chance of a first green jacket and career Grand Slam.
