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Seamus Coleman is an injury doubt for Ireland's clash with Germany on Thursday. Donall Farmer/INPHO
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'I don't know how serious the Coleman-to-Bayern link ever was'

Leading German football writer Raphael Honigstein chats to The42 ahead of Thursday’s big game at the Aviva.

GERMANY GO INTO Thursday’s Euro 2016 qualifier with Ireland as clear favourites, and the overriding sense in the country seems to be that the greatest threat to the expected outcome is themselves.

Asked if there are any Irish players in particular that Joachim Löw’s side are wary of, leading German football writer Raphael Honigstein, who contributes to ESPN and The Guardian among others, highlights Robbie Keane as the Boys in Green’s most well-known player in his country.

“I think Robbie Keane is the one player from over the last few years that everybody in Germany knows and kind of fears because of his goals and his goal against Germany in 2002,” he tells The42.

“Everybody else is not really that big a name. They don’t follow English football that closely. They will know the players who play in teams with German players — the Arsenal and Man United players — but when it comes to smaller sides and even Championship sides, they have no idea, it’s just not on their radar.

“So it would be disingenuous to say that everybody is talking about the threat from this guy or that guy. They just think if Germany show up and play their game, they should beat Ireland — not because Ireland are bad but because Germany are much better.

“It’s different when they play the likes of Portugal or Poland, and everybody knows at least one big player — then the whole debate is how will they cope with Lewandowski, how will they cope with Cristiano Ronaldo. Ireland don’t quite have that player at the moment.”

Seamus Coleman is widely regarded as Ireland’s best current player and the Everton full-back was linked with Bayern Munich among others during the most recent summer transfer window. However, Honigstein is skeptical as to whether there was any truth to this story in the first place.

“I don’t know how serious the Coleman-to-Bayern link ever was. In Germany, nobody reported that story, so I’m a little bit dubious as to how much interest there really was from Bayern.”

Soccer - FIFA World Cup 2014 - Final - Germany v Argentina - Estadio do Maracana Germany are the reigning world champions. Nick Potts Nick Potts

Germany need just a draw on Thursday to guarantee qualification, but Honigstein says the world champions are unlikely to settle for a point at the Aviva Stadium.

“I think they’ll play as they usually do, but having said that, they haven’t really been convincing in this qualifying. Part of the reason is that in the back of their mind, they know that they will qualify. They began their qualification campaign thinking: ‘Whatever happens, we’ll make it,’ and that has affected them a little bit.

“They’ve become a little bit better now in their last three or four games and I don’t think they’ll go into this game looking for a draw. I think they’ll try and play their normal game as much as they can and one thing that they have done with Joachim Löw – they tend to win games against teams who don’t want to play football against them. They’ve developed ways to find openings and they’ve become really good at playing against sides like Scotland, who had six men in a line defending at Hampden.

“The best scenario for Ireland is somehow being able to frustrate Germany for a long time and then as time is running out, Germany will say: ‘You know what, we don’t have to win this game, let’s slow down a little bit’.

“Already, Löw  is talking about competition for the Euros and new players trying to stake a claim et cetera. It’s hard to see them letting up too much, so I expect them to try really hard to win this game in style. It gives them a bit of peace because the critics are very quick now they’re so high, so when Germany don’t win comfortably playing good football, someone’s going to be unhappy about that.”

Honigstein adds that a number of factors were behind the German team’s slow start in Group D, which saw them drop points away to Poland and at home against Ireland.

“There was a huge hangover there. You go from playing the World Cup final in the Maracana to going to play Georgia and Scotland in a competition where you know you can afford to lose games. I think, mentally, it was very hard to adjust.

“Then you had the retired players, (whose absence was felt) maybe not so much in quality, although Philipp Lahm not being there created problems, but it’s a different dressing room without these big guys around. It takes a bit of time for new people to emerge and take responsibility.

“And Löw’s been experimenting a lot, trying out players like Antonio Rüdiger, Sebastian Rudy, lots of attempted solutions, like centre back and full back. It hasn’t really gelled all that much, but the last two games show that with big players coming back and being fit again, there is a team to take shape and it’s looking a lot better than it did at the end of last year. And that’s just a natural cycle — to start badly after a tournament they’ve just won and then slowly find their rhythm again.”

Soccer - UEFA Euro 2016 - Qualifying - Group D - Scotland v Germany - Hampden Park Germany boss Joachim Löw recently extended his contract to 2018. EMPICS Sport EMPICS Sport

With qualification virtually assured, the future looks bright for German football. Moreover, last March, Joachim Löw extended his contract with the side until 2018. And despite having already been with the team since 2004 (first, as assistant to Jürgen Klinsmann, before taking over as head coach in 2006), Honigstein feels the former Stuttgart and Fenerbahçe coach is likely to stay in the job for the foreseeable future.

“By keeping going, you know you’re going to have a really good shot at nearly every tournament going forward simply because of the players that Germany have produced

“I don’t think he wants to be a club coach — certainly not at the moment. I think he enjoys the rhythm of international football, which is quite slow and then frantic for a period of four or five weeks, with almost two years to relax (after) again. Germany will be among the favourites for years to come.

“I don’t think there’s any real sense or impetus that Germany has to do what Spain has done. Everyone realises that it’s still going to be very narrow margins. They could have lost the final against Argentina and they might lose another semi-final against Spain.

“He’s still got a long way to go until the end of the 2018 World Cup. In the past, Germany have been very happy to keep national managers around, even after big successes and after less successful tournaments in the case of Berti Vogts. So I wouldn’t be surprised if, even in 2018, he says: ‘Let’s do a bit more and see if I can be the first guy to win two World Cups’.

“But it depends, maybe if Real Madrid or Bayern Munich come calling, he’ll feel he’s had enough, but who knows? At this point in time, he’s really happy with what he’s doing and certainly, the German FA are really happy with him.”

‘Das Reboot: How German Football Reinvented Itself and Conquered the World’ is written by Raphael Honigstein and published by Yellow Jersey Press. More info here.

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