ONE OF THE most fun parts of international rugby is selection.
Maybe not for the players and coaches, for whom it causes great stress, but supporters and media love discussing, predicting, and analysing matchday 23s when the big Tests roll around.
So here we go again.
Ireland start their autumn campaign with the big one, the visit of New Zealand to Dublin next Friday night.
First, it’s worth remembering where Andy Farrell finished up with his selection at the end of last season when Ireland beat South Africa in Durban.
IRELAND: Jamie Osborne; Calvin Nash, Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw, James Lowe; Jack Crowley, Conor Murray; Andrew Porter, Rónan Kelleher, Tadhg Furlong; Joe McCarthy, James Ryan: Tadhg Beirne, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris (captain)Replacements: Rob Herring, Cian Healy, Finlay Bealham, Ryan Baird, Peter O’Mahony, Caolin Blade, Ciarán Frawley, Stuart McCloskey.
Incredibly, every single one of that 23 from July are expected to be available for this All Blacks clash.
There had been injury worries over hookers Kelleher and Herring, centre Henshaw, out-half Frawley, and back row O’Mahony in recent times, but they’re on track at the time of writing.
Missing through injury that day in Durban were Jamison Gibson-Park, Craig Casey, Mack Hansen, Iain Henderson, and Dan Sheehan. Hugo Keenan was on Ireland 7s duty and Jack Conan was absent for personal reasons. Ireland had said Bundee Aki was carrying an injury but he was fit enough to do the warm-up before the second Boks Test.
All of them but Sheehan and Conan are available for this All Blacks clash.
That means Farrell has had great options to consider in his selection, which is due to be officially announced at 2pm on Wednesday.
Osborne’s brilliant performance in the number 15 shirt in that second Boks Test means there is finally a real long-term competitor for Keenan, who had the jersey locked down for three-and-a-half years before that.
Osborne didn’t play at fullback for Leinster last season but started in the province’s number 15 shirt for the opening two games of this campaign before three starts at inside centre. He has been in superb form.
But Keenan has been a superb performer for Farrell for a long time and has also started this campaign in strong form for Leinster, clearly determined to re-establish his position at the top of the pecking order.
Mack Hansen will be aiming to do the same on the right wing, where Calvin Nash did well in the Six Nations and on tour in South Africa in the Connacht man’s absence.
There has been frustration for Hansen recently with a hip issue but he’s in line to return for this All Blacks game and his playmaking x-factor and defensive nous had made him a pivotal figure under Farrell prior to injury.
James Lowe has kept total control of the number 11 jersey, with his powerful carrying, work rate off the ball, and long left-footed kicking game making him an influential force. Jacob Stockdale is in good form for Ulster but Lowe has been excellent for Ireland.
Inside centre Aki has been brilliant for Connacht early this season and will be determined to break back into the starting XV ahead of Henshaw, who has only played once for Leinster due to injury. Ringrose is the incumbent at number 13.
Of course, Farrell could pair Aki and Henshaw together in midfield, while Stuart McCloskey has been a trusted performer at inside centre. Osborne is a live option in the midfield too, while his ability to play on the wing increases his chance of being in the 23.
Jack Crowley has been the starter at out-half this year and Farrell will likely be keen to watch the Munster man continue to develop as the tactical leader at number 10, but he’s clearly a big fan of Frawley’s athleticism and mental qualities.
The Leinster man has overcome his ankle injury scare and may back-up Crowley again following his drop-goal exploits off the bench in Durban. It might be that 21-year-old Sam Prendergast has to wait for the Fiji game for his Test debut.
Scrum-half Gibson-Park has been the heartbeat of this Irish side in recent years and his delightful pass selection for Leinster in recent weeks shows that his instincts and skills are as sharp as ever. Having missed the South Africa tour with a hamstring injury, it seems Gibson-Park is still getting up to his blisteringly quick top sprinting speed which is important to Ireland’s defence.
Casey had an excellent first Test in Pretoria before injury so he’ll hope to provide scrum-half impact off the bench, although 35-year-old Murray has lots of credit in the bank in that role under Farrell.
Despite the relative lack of recent game time, Kelleher is the favourite to start at hooker, all the more so given that Rob Herring has yet to play this season. They’re both in line to recover from injuries to feature against the Kiwis, but Connacht’s in-form Dave Heffernan would love a chance if either struggles in the next week.
The make-up of the back five of the starting pack will be intriguing.
In dropping O’Mahony to the bench and handing Caelan Doris the captaincy for the second Boks Test, Farrell opted to move Tadhg Beirne from the second row to blindside flanker, with James Ryan coming in as a starting lock.
A back five of Joe McCarthy, Ryan, Beirne, Josh van der Flier, and Doris provided thrilling physicality. And the opening half of that game in Durban was jaw-droppingly physical.
There is scope to move Beirne into the second row again, particularly given that McCarthy is only just coming back from a hamstring injury. Highly experienced Ulster captain Henderson has also returned to the squad after missing the South Africa tour.
O’Mahony has recovered from a hamstring injury to start for Munster against the All Blacks XV this evening in Thomond Park, where a strong performance could put him back into the mix for Ireland.
That said, it would be a surprise if O’Mahony went straight into Ireland’s starting XV having missed their training camp in Portugal.
If Farrell did shift Beirne back to the second row and O’Mahony wasn’t considered at number six, there could be an opening for Ryan Baird, Cian Prendergast, or the uncapped Cormac Izuchukwu. It would be exciting to see athletic Ulster man Izuchukwu involved in some capacity.
If Farrell goes with a 6/2 bench, that would give exciting possibilities in the back five of the scrum but a 5/3 would mean someone like Osborne, Henshaw, or McCloskey not being left out.
It seems likely that Ireland’s selection will be familiar-looking, even if the Ireland head coach showed once again in South Africa that he is capable of a big selection surprise once in a while.
Farrell will be excited that his matchday squad should be even stronger on paper than the 23 that beat the Springboks in Ireland’s last game.
Beirne at 6 for me. No one has that shirt locked down right now. Even though McCarthy hasn’t played recently he’s a beast and a proper THL. Ryan has been in good form and is a proven test match animal. I’d have Henderson and Baird on the bench but it’s very open
Agree, I’d keep the pack unchanged. I’m a real fan of the physicality that back five brings. Maybe Baird and Izzy on the bench, with Doris to cover 7 if needs be (he’s done it before).
I think we have better options than POM at the moment and the Munster thing might be messing up his head. Keep him for the Fiji and Argentinian games
@Con Cussed: who would you suggest instead of him?
@anthony davoren: Beirne, Baird or Izuchukwu. They can all go for 80 mins if required and offer more around the park. There is no doubt that we would miss his leadership, but that could also be very useful in the last 20 minutes.
I don’t think there will be too many sleepless nights for Farrell, despite the many options. Keenan, Hansen, Aki, JGP to come into the starting backline with the pack remaining unchanged. I think the only real decisions to be made are the bench – Henderson, Izuchukwu or Baird, Casey or Murray, Henshaw or Osbourne. O’Mahony makes the bench mainly because there are no other options at 7. Having said all that, Andy loves a curve ball every now and again but that won’t give him any pause for thought.
Speaking of no. 9s…. Has anyone thought of converting Jordan Larmour into a sniping scrum half ?
I get that Dorris covers All back 3 positions but who covers Dorris?
I’d have Izzy in for Baird. Ringrose on bench. Murray and Crowley bench also.
@Noel Lynn: Do you really think Crowley won’t start?
@Noel Lynn: why would Crowley be benched, he hasn’t put a foot wrong for Ireland. Frawley hasn’t done enough to take his spot at 10.
@Noel Lynn: Crowley 100 percent starter
@Shawn: He might have meant Frawley. It doesn’t make sense otherwise as the way into the conversation about the starting 10 is to talk about who starts rather than who you would put on the bench.
@Paul Ennis: Frawley to start. Jack not firing on all cylinders
@Paul Ennis: Has anyone seen Crowley’s last two games for Munster? He had bowlers in each one. Frawley better to start if fit.
@Con Cussed: howlers
@anthony davoren: he’s not on form for Munster. That’s a good reason.
@Con Cussed: AF is not that fickle. He knows Crowley’s ability and will give him a chance to bring it in Portugal, next week and v NZ.
This team can be less physical than if playing SA. So, there is a conundrum at 4/5 between Beirne,McCarthy, Ryan for Farrell. This leaves 6 up for grabs too. Most commentators seem to be leaning towards the Leinster duo at 2R. So, Beirne either stays at 6 from last outing or drops to bench as a utility option allowing a more specialist 6 based on this assessment. Crowley is low on confidence so it might be a Frawley start. These selections wouldn’t be mine but that seems to how things are drifting. Personally, I would keep MaCarthy on bench, play Beirne/Ryan at 4/5 and Baird at 6 . Crowley stays in as reward for good output in year to date. Munster players are better with better players around them.