‘ASK ME IN about 52 hours,’ said Joe Schmidt with a weary Thursday afternoon exhale after he had presented his team-sheet for today’s Six Nations clash with Scotland (kick-off 14.15, TV3).
Schmidt’s Ireland team won’t jump ahead of themselves, obviously, but onlookers and fans would be remiss to ignore the possibility that the Championship could well be settled before 7pm this evening.
Keeping it simple, if Ireland win and put more points on the table today than England do, then the title changes hands a week before the long-hyped ‘decider’ in Twickenham.
“No, it’s one of those things that is not a controllable for us,” says Schmidt, whose team have the benefit of posting a target and seeing if England can follow.
“Inside the bubble it is very much about being pragmatic, getting the process right, trying to get our set-piece right, our defence right, trying to get our phase-attack right so that we can be as competitive as possible.
Because, in the end, if you allow yourself to dream it’s not productive time.
“It’s a nice time, it would be fantastic, but it’s just not productive to do it. And it’s even less productive knowing the form that Scotland are in and the confidence they bring.”
Yes, it goes without saying that there’s a whole lot of rugby to be played before even a flicker of ticker-tape is to be seen.
Scotland, rejuvenated by their win over England and improved since beating Ireland in Edinburgh last year, come to Dublin with title aspirations of their own. A win would leave them facing a points-chase of a final day against Italy – and the Azzurri have too often proven amenable to opponents in such circumstances.
While Scotland’s exciting attack has rightly demanded plenty of attention in the lead-up to a clash with a team with definite stutters out wide, the supreme back row-play from Gregor Townsend’s side has been left somewhat under-rated.
Ryan Wilson, Hamish Watson and John Barclay were a bane to England and could present an extremely frustrating day for Ireland if they get a foothold. Opposite them, Peter O’Mahony and Dan Leavy will be intent on making it a vicious battle for supremacy on the floor.
“I can speak from first hand, he’s a pain in the hole to play against,” says O’Mahony of Leavy.
“That’s a great compliment from a back row and he’s been super to play alongside the last few weeks, he’s been a great voice.
“He’s one of the young fellas to come in, but he’s doing an incredible amount of learning quickly, and I’m doing some learning off him as well. The way he plays the game, it’s obviously very physical and intense but it’s very smart, and he’s been brilliant for us the last three weeks.”
This time last year, O’Mahony was building up to an immense catharsis that saw him return to his peak of his powers when Ireland beat England. This time around, the Munster skipper doesn’t carry himself like a man in quite so much pain.
“It’s funny, the injury gives you a few months off and gives your body a chance to repair, obviously, all the different niggles and stuff.
“You have got a good bolt going into pre-season when you do come back from an injury and that has certainly stood to me in the last 12 months, and I have enjoyed my rugby as well. It took me a while to get back to where I wanted to be, but over the last couple of months, I have generally enjoyed myself… the last few weeks have just been enjoyable and that is key for professional rugby, you have to enjoy what you are doing and a lot of us, if not all of us, certainly are in the last couple of weeks.”
The notion of playing with a smile on your face isn’t really one that sits easily with the Irish psyche, however. We’re more often tortured souls, better when we’re railing against something in the ether than floating atop it.
The man even more crucial to Ireland’s hopes than O’Mahony is another who performs with more of a grimace and a scowl than anything resembling joy. And one element of Johnny Sexton’s performance a fortnight ago gave him more cause for annoyance than usual.
Kicking three from seven attempts just isn’t acceptable for the standards Sexton sets himself. But the outright excellence of the man was still on show across the rest of his skill-set: running through gaps, fizzing astounding passes and even bringing himself to pick-and-go.
With so much resting on the fitness of both Irish half-backs, Schmidt was asked if perhaps Sexton should be discouraged from acting like a second blindside now and then.
“You cannot say that to Johnny,” laughed Schmidt, “I just think he wants to compete for everything. That tackle on (Ross) Moriarty – a super player, an incredibly powerful ball carrier – but it didn’t stop Johnny flying in and making a good tackle.
“Do I wish he was more judicious? Sometimes I do. I remember sitting in the coaches box (at Leinster) with Jono Gibbes at one stage and Jono saying: ‘would you ever get Johnny to stay out of that stuff, leave it to my boys. We will look after that’.
“He’s a competitor.
“The other players love that about him, because it gives him licence to lead. When you put your own hand up, it’s pretty easy to lead others and he does a super job of it.”
As for the goal-kicking; if needs be, Schmidt will be happy to let one element lag as long as Sexton’s controlling influence remains strong all over the field. Goal-kicking has a bearing on the scoreboard, but compared to the core function of, say, a tight-five player at set-piece, the over-arching gameplan can continue to work without it.
“Goal-kicking is slightly more peripheral than having someone in the engine room,” says Schmidt.
“It’s difficult to play if someone at the fulcrum of the team is not performing because other people can’t get access to the game. Johnny missing a kick still provides plenty of access. They get to drop out and we get to chase around, pick the ball up and go again.
“If he misses a kick the ball is mostly dead, unless it comes off the post and then it was a Welsh error that allows to get that ball back and in the end construct a really good try (for Jacob Stockdale).
“How did we get that try? I don’t think you’d see a better pass in world rugby. It was incredibly flat, it went across two channels and I think Leigh Halfpenny didn’t think he (Sexton) could throw it, because he could actually mark up one out, but Bundee Aki is there, he wedges in on him and it goes straight across to Jacob who’s untouched going over.”
All the pieces are in place to allow Ireland to dare to dream. A third Championship in five years is within reach, whether it takes one week or two.
It would be a remarkable achievement given the stalwarts denied to Ireland and the new men who have had to adapt so quickly.
O’Mahony and the six other members of today’s starting XV who made up the core of Championship wins in both 2014 and 2015 must surely work hard to help the others remain calm and focused while the stakes and pressure get higher with each passing game.
“It will be there in the back of your head, obviously,” admits O’Mahony, before insisting that the pressure has remained consistent.
“Six Nations, as soon as you lose one you’re under big pressure. So we’ve had that pressure from day one, so this week doesn’t get any different from what the lads have experienced for the last three weeks.
“We’ve just to got prepare well in the run-in again because we’ve had this pressure, this internal pressure that we put on ourselves and the external pressure that gets put on us as well, and the lads have experienced that in the last few weeks.
“It doesn’t change. This game isn’t bigger than last week and it won’t be bigger the following week.”
Ask again in a few hours’ time.
Ireland
15. Rob Kearney
14. Keith Earls
13. Garry Ringrose
12. Bundee Aki
11. Jacob Stockdale
10. Johnny Sexton
9. Conor Murray
1. Cian Healy
2. Rory Best (Capt.)
3. Tadhg Furlong
4. James Ryan
5. Devin Toner
6. Peter O’Mahony
7. Dan Leavy
8. CJ Stander
Replacements:
16. Sean Cronin
17. Jack McGrath
18. Andrew Porter
19. Iain Henderson
20. Jordi Murphy
21. Kieran Marmion
22. Joey Carbery
23. Jordan Larmour
Scotland
15. Stuart Hogg
14. Blair Kinghorn
13. Huw Jones
12. Peter Horne
11. Sean Maitland
10. Finn Russell
9. Greig Laidlaw
1. Gordon Reid
2. Stuart McInally
3. Simon Berghan
4. Grant Gilchrist
5. Jonny Gray
6. John Barclay (Capt)
7. Hamish Watson
8. Ryan Wilson
Replacements:
16. Fraser Brown
17. Jamie Bhatti
18. Willem Nel
19. Tim Swinson
20. David Denton
21. Ali Price
22. Nick Grigg
23. Lee Jones
