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Move over, Paul the Octopus - mathematical model says Ireland WILL progress from their Euro 2016 group

The AA’s Analytics team say Ireland has a 1% chance of making the final.

Ireland are fourth seeds in a group containing Belgium, Italy and Sweden.
Ireland are fourth seeds in a group containing Belgium, Italy and Sweden.
Image: PA Archive/Press Association Images

IRELAND WILL PROGRESS to the knockout stages of Euro 2016, according to a mathematical model constructed by the AA’s Pricing and Analytics team.

But Ireland fans shouldn’t get too excited just yet, with the model giving Ireland just a 1% chance of making the final on 10 July.

The model which was compiled after gathering data from bookies odds, match results and team rankings says Ireland have a 52% chance of making the last 16. Northern Ireland on the other hand will struggle in France, with just a 33% chance of making it out of the group.

DEU Fussball WM Tiere Orakel Paul the Octopus became an unlikely tipster during the 2010 World Cup.

The analytics team says Ireland will draw 1-1 with Sweden before losing to Belgium but a draw with Italy in the last group game proves enough to finish as one of the best third place teams.

England are 90% certain to get out of their group, while Wales’ chances are significantly lower with Chris Coleman’s men having a 55% chance of progressing from their group containing Russia and Slovakia.

If you are looking for an outside bet the model predicts that Russia and Austria could be worth a punt although the data shows hosts France will edge Spain in the final.

The task of predicting the results of the results from major tournaments hit strange new heights in 2010 when Paul the Octopus became the unlikely star of the World Cup.

By choosing a mussel from one of two boxes, the octopus correctly predicted the outcome of seven of Germany’s matches during the course of the tournament, including Serbia’s shock win over Joachim Low’s side as well as Spain beating the Dutch in the final. Paul died later that year.

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Shane Costello

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