JUST WHEN YOU think you have the Springboks figured out, they always have another surprise up their sleeve.
The 7/1 bench split worked wonderfully well the first time it was unveiled against New Zealand in their last World Cup warm-up game in August.
That day, the starting Springboks pack built up a strong lead and then the bolstered Bomb Squad flooded off the bench en masse early in the second half to seal the deal against the 14-man All Blacks.
“Let’s f**k them up physically,” Rassie Erasmus regularly implored his team in ‘Chasing the Sun,’ the documentary about the Springboks’ 2019 World Cup success, and the 7/1 bench split is a continuation of that theme.
The seven Boks forwards being sent on at the same time was an awesome sight in August and the obvious risks involved failed to transpire, so Rassie Erasmus and Jacques Nienaber went for the 7/1 again in their World Cup pool clash against Ireland.
There wasn’t as obvious an impact then, however, with Ireland’s traditional 5/3 split arguably making the greater impact as Andy Farrell’s side edged a tight battle.
There seemed to be a general agreement that that would be it for the Boks’ 7/1 bench but, as tends to be the case, Erasmus and Nienaber saw things differently.
They put the 7/1 back up their sleeve and moved on with 5/3 splits on their bench for the next three games, including the quarter-final win over France and the semi-final victory against England last weekend.
It was always likely that South Africa would make changes for this final, of course. The All Blacks would have been expecting to see Faf de Klerk and Handré Pollard back in the starting team after being used off the bench for the knock-out games so far.
Pollard has built his match fitness after being a late injury call-up to this World Cup and looks ready to go the full 80 minutes if required on Saturday. There is also out-half cover provided by starting fullback Damian Willemse, with Willie le Roux – who predominantly plays 15 but could also cover 10 – on the bench.
Pollard has been important for the Boks since his return to the squad the week of the Ireland game when he replaced injured hooker Malcolm Marx. He has looked composed at all times and his place-kicking has been 100% perfect.
Out-half Manie Libbok did well in the wins over Scotland and France but once he was replaced after just 31 minutes last weekend against England, it was likely that Pollard would usurp him in the starting XV. Libbok misses out on the 23 altogether this weekend.
De Klerk has made some huge plays off the bench in the past two weekends and though Reinach has done well as the starting scrum-half, it was always highly likely that the blonde bombshell would be back at number nine for the final. Wing Cheslin Kolbe will be the scrum-half cover in the Springboks’ matchday 23, with head coach Jacques Nienaber stating that Kolbe’s 7s experience should help if he’s called on to cover scrum-half.
Still, the Boks will be praying that de Klerk doesn’t get injured, especially early on. That would mean reshuffling the entire backline, with Kolbe going to scrum-half, outside centre Jesse Kriel potentially moving to the wing, Willemse shifting to inside centre, Damian de Allende switching to outside centre, and le Roux coming on at fullback.
The All Blacks possibly felt the Springboks would opt for a 6/2 bench split, with Reinach and le Roux covering the backs, but Erasmus and Nienaber have instead gone for that same formula that worked well at Twickenham in August.
That clash was not reflective of the quality of the All Blacks, who had arrived in London only a few days before the game and delivered a sleepy performance. The Springboks know that the Kiwis will be much more like the team that beat Ireland in the quarter-finals when they play this weekend.
Erasmus and Nienaber will enjoy having so much forward might to call on from their bench. With Vincent Koch – who did an excellent job off the bench against England – having failed to train on Monday, he misses out on selection as the back-up tighthead, with Trevor Nyakane instead filling that slot.
The 7/1 means there’s also room for Munster man Jean Kleyn, who won five caps for Ireland back in 2019 but was never involved in any capacity in the Andy Farrell era. With World Rugby tweaking their eligibility rules, Erasmus spotted an opportunity and asked the in-form Munster man if he wanted to play Test rugby again.
Kleyn, who spoke very well about his adventure this week, didn’t think twice about declaring for his native land and now he’s on the brink of winning the World Cup. That he will be sent on alongside Munster team-mate RG Snyman would make it all the sweeter.
Having seven forwards on the bench also means that Springboks hooker Bongi Mbonambi may not have to play the full 80 minutes again, with Deon Fourie potentially replacing him instead of coming on in the back row. That said, it does seem likely that Bongi will have another lengthy shift at hooker. The fact remains that the Boks don’t have an out-and-out hooker to cover him, a risk in itself.
There’s also space on the Boks bench for the ball-carrying ballast of Jasper Wiese, who has missed out in the last two weekends.
With Nienaber stating that there’s a 60% chance of rain before or during the game, they’re happy to have lots of forward muscle to challenge the All Blacks with.
Of course, the 7/1 brings with it the risk that we’ve discussed before. The Boks should be fine to cover one injury in their backline, although they’ll hope de Klerk doesn’t get injured, but two would leave them greatly stretched.
Back row Kwagga Smith would possibly move to the midfield if that happened, with all the other possible shuffling of the backline to follow, so the Boks will hope it doesn’t occur early on.
The nightmare scenario is de Klerk getting injured in the opening exchanges, then any of the other backs following him off soon after. If it cost the Boks the game, there’s no doubt that the South Africa bosses would attract plenty of criticism.
In that sense, it’s a brave, bold selection from Erasmus and Nienaber, but this kind of call very often works out well for them. It adds another layer of intrigue to this World Cup final.
