WE WAITED 55 years for a team to play a home Super Bowl and now, just like buses, we get a second one in as many seasons.
To look ahead to tonight’s match-up of the LA Rams and Cincinnati Bengals at Super Bowl LVI, Steve O’Rourke has picked out his five talking points with the latest odds from William Hill…
Joe Burrow can overcome the Bengals’ offensive line
When Joe Burrow’s debut NFL season ended after just 10.5 games with a torn ACL and MCL in his left knee, the suits in Cincinnati must have wondered if their rookie quarterback would ever be the same again. To help protect their star quarterback, they splashed out on veterans Riley Reiff and Quinton Spain in free agency. It didn’t work.
After taking a league-worst 51 sacks during the regular season, Burrow has been downed 13 times in the playoffs, including nine against the Tennessee Titans. This Sunday, he faces off against Von Miller and Aaron Donald who, between them, have 25.5 sacks on the season.
Despite the lack of protection, Burrow’s star continues to rise and, indeed, some of his best passing games down the stretch have come in games where he has been sacked three or more times. A case of what doesn’t kill you only makes your arm stronger, I guess.
William Hill odds: Joe Burrow total passing yards, over 274.5 @ 5/6
The Rams will abandon the run game
Cam Akers almost single-handedly gifted Tom Brady another shot at the ultimate fairytale end to his career; his two fumbles throwing what should have been a comfortable Rams win into doubt.
That Akers is playing at all is a testament to modern medicine having suffered what looked like a season-ending Achilles injury earlier this year. But even besides the fumbles, it has not been a stellar return to action for the running back. In his four games, Akers has 59 rushes for 154 yards – at a lowly 2.6 yards per carry, and a long run of just 15.
Worse still, he has yet to top 55 rushing yards in any of those games and there are few signs that will change in the biggest game of all. Notably, the Bengals run defence is a top-5 unit marshalled by D.J. Reader who seems to take every rushing attempt personally.
William Hill odds: Cam Akers total rushing yards, under 64.5 @ 4/5
Expect Cooper to fill his, eh, Kupp
Despite all the star power of this Rams team, it lives and dies in the hands of the 69th pick of the 2017 draft, a 6’1” slot receiver out of Eastern Washington, Cooper Kupp.
This year, the 28-year-old led the NFL regular season in receptions (145), receiving yards (1,947) and touchdowns (16). In this postseason, he already has four visits to the endzone and nearly 390 yards in just three games.
Kupp is so hard to defend for a number of reasons. Firstly, Sean McVay moves him around so much pre-snap, it’s almost impossible to double team him without leaving massive gaps elsewhere.
And secondly, the LA playbook gives Kupp a plethora of choice routes – where the receiver can pick one of two/three routes to run based on what the defence shows – and Kupp is one of the smartest receivers in the game.
Kupp averaged 114.5 yards per game in the regular season, and is on pace to average 129 per game in the postseason, so triple digits should be well within his sights.
William Hill odds: Cooper Kupp Over 99 Receiving Yards & To Score A Touchdown @ 11/8
Kickers are people too
Evan McPherson wrote his name in Bengals – and NFL – folklore when he confidently told backup quarterback Brandon Allen that Cincinnati were going to the AFC Championship Game before he kicked the game-winning 52-yard field goal against the Tennessee Titans.
He goes into this game just three field goals shy of Adam Vinatieri’s NFL record of 14 postseason successes and few would be against a player freshly adorned with the new nickname ‘Money Mac’.
A player absolutely brimming with confidence, don’t be stunned if the final score of Super Bowl LVI comes from the same boot as the first.
William Hill odds: Evan McPherson first score in game @ 4/1
And the winner is…
From Jalen Ramsey to Von Miller, Matthew Stafford to Odell Beckham Junior, the LA Rams have essentially bet the future of the franchise on winning a Super Bowl in the next two years. In a way, trading away first round picks for established star players makes a tonne of sense. But those players come at a premium, and in the salary cap era it’s win or bust.
At the other end of the spectrum the Bengals – who could have lost to the Raiders and Titans, and should have lost to Kansas City – must feel like this is a free shot at the Super Bowl. Having so many young players on cheap deals they’ll surely be back again.
However, all Joe Burrow knows how to do is win. He did it with LSU in the biggest game in college football and, with the help of a much underrated defence, I expect him to do the same this weekend with the Bengals.
William Hill odds: Cincinnati Bengals moneyline @ 33/20
William Hill odds above correct at the time of writing. New online customers get €30 in free bets when they bet €10 with William Hill. Just use the promo code H30. For all the latest prices, visit williamhill.com. 18+, always gamble responsibly. For more information, see gamblingtherapy.org
