Outright Betting: Sergio Garcia €20 each way at 80/1 (1/4 the odds 1-5) A few weeks ago I had small money on about nine golfers in the Byron Nelson event on the US PGA Tour. With so many players competing in tournaments, I sometimes scatter financial mud to see if it sticks each way, or failing that I hope to earn a nice trade on a betting exchange. Having read an article about journeyman pro Harrison Frazar, I placed €10 on him to win at 609/1. Frazar had never won in 13 years on the circuit and was on the verge of quitting competitive golf. He finished 14th. Last week he won the FedEx St Jude Classic in Memphis at exchange odds of around 580/1, when I didn't have a cent on. I have been walking around in a state of shock all week. My brain is now telling me to 'Stay The Course' and remain loyal to those I have burnt money on down through the years. One of those players is the forgotten man of golf, Sergio Garcia, who is my main tip for this year's US Open at Congressional just outside Washington. We all know that it's best to close our eyes before watching the Spaniard putt on TV, but I have a feeling he isn't cooked just yet. Number 2 in the world less than three years ago, Garcia remains a supreme ballstriker, and has emerged from an off course funk to finish in the Top 20 on the US Tour in 5 of his 8 starts in 2011. He won a regular tour event at Congressional in 2005 and has 3 top 10s in US Open history. He will win a major, probably in unusual circumstances by going low early on Sunday and seeing the leaders capitulate. I am 'Staying The Course' with Sergio Garcia at a value price of 80/1.

Outright Betting: Ryan Moore €10 each way at 90/1 (1/4 the odds 1-6) Ryan Moore is a player I like. The 28-year-old is an independent thinker, eschewing corporate logos and a plethora of swing coaches to just play the god damn game. He was a magnificent amateur and has bags of natural talent. He possesses a good all round game and a smooth putting stroke. The most impressive thing about Ryan Moore is that he is a 'closer'. He nearly won at the Memorial early in his PGA Tour career and then took the title at the Wyndham Championship in a play off. I was impressed by the way he closed down Justin Rose at the AT&T National last year. He has good form at Congressional, with a 66 carded on his first appearance and an 11th place finish in 2009 at the AT&T. He likes old fashioned tree-lined courses, which this is, and has been consistent if not spectacular this year. He also notched a Tied 10th at the US Open in 2009. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ryan Moore hold a late tee time on Sunday afternoon.

Outright Betting: Robert Allenby €10 each way 125/1 (1/4 the odds 1-6) At one stage in the 1990s Robert Allenby was looking like the next big thing. He was third on the European Tour's Order of Merit, but then a nasty car accident in Spain derailed his momentum. On moving to the US at the turn of the millennium he won four tournaments inside 2 years, but apart from a Triple Crown of Masters, Open and PGA titles in his native Australia, the billabong has been dry. It's not been for a lack of trying, as Allenby has qualified for the Tour Championship seven times and was 2nd in the Players Championship last year. Unfortunately, a combination of bad luck and bad putting has let him down. Like Sergio Garcia, there are no issues tee to green for this long hitter. However, I am encouraged on a number of counts; Allenby shot 67-67 last weekend at Memphis, he has a great record at Congressional (he's finished 13th, 6th and 3rd in four regular tour starts) and although they have changed the greens from poa annua to bentgrass this week, he did putt very well on the glass US Open greens at Shinnecock Hills in 2004. 5 of the last 6 US Open champions have been first time major winners. Perhaps Allenby's experience will enable him to lurk around the premises and if he does win, it's guaranteed he'll be kissing his putter.

Outright Betting: Fredrik Jacobson €10 each way at 150/1 (1-4 the odds 1-5) I have advocated in writing before not to get emotional about competitors or teams, but then Harrison Frazar goes and wins and human nature takes over. It would be a surprise if Fredrik Jacobson won this week, but he's 37.5/1 for a place, which when you consider the skinny odds layers are offering on Luke Donald (too short off the tee and may have peaked at Wentworth) Rory McIlroy (fresh from crumbling at the Masters) or Hunter Mahan (who has in my opinion a suspect short game for a superstar in the making) then you have to go hunting for odds. Michael Campbell, Lucas Glover and Graeme McDowell's US Open victories in recent times illustrate that. I have been keeping a close eye on Jacobson all year, and he's playing well. He is a brilliant putter, make no mistake, and was a good European Tour player (won the Volvo Masters). The move across the Atlantic has posed tougher challenges and barren spells, but the Swede has a habit of maintaining his form. In 2003 he posted Top 10s at the US Open and Open Championships. I am intrigued by his form at Congressional; he was 2nd in the 2008 AT & T National. Jacobson has the opposite problem to Garcia and Allenby in that he needs to keep the ball on the fairway, but if he does that, he is a lively outsider.

Outright Betting: Kevin Streelman €5 each way at 200/1 (1/4 the odds 1-5) First Round Leader Betting: Kevin Streelman €5 each way at 100/1 (1/4 the odds 1-5) When Kevin Streelman walked off Torrey Pines as the first round leader at the 2008 US Open, I was thinking, "Who?" It was his rookie season on the US Tour after coming through Q School at the first attempt. And he finished 35th on the money list. Last year he finished 25th, and I noticed (and tipped) a decent repeat performance at Ridgewood Country Club in the Barclays. He has shown excellent recent form, which includes 3 Top 20s in his last 3 starts. He has form at Congressional in the AT&T National (27th and 11th) and is quoted as being chilled out this week. He may not win, but may give you a run for your money, especially as he holds an early tee time on Thursday. So we will throw a few bob on Streelman in the first round leader and outright market. Because he doesn't have to worry about Tiger Woods breathing down his neck on Sunday does he?

Rory McIlroy has won twice in his competitive career. He has the game for this course (long, high hitter) and he will be a multiple major winner, but I think the scars of Augusta need to heal. Not for me. Graeme McDowell was poor when in contention at the Players and his form at the Wales Open would worry me. Curtis Strange was the last repeat winner of the US Open in 1989 and I cannot see it happening for GMAC. Pádraig Harrington changed his swing after he was beaten up by Congressional at the last US Open staged there in 1997. Nowadays he seems intent on beating himself up. I love Padraig, but I am not putting any money on him. And Shane Lowry is clever enough to know that he needs to keep the ball on the fairway this week. It's great to see that he is 'making it' as it were, but I think he needs a lot more experience before he is lifting major trophies. Finally, after five second place finishes, it would be marvelllous to witness Phil Mickelson win a US Open. However some things are just destined not to be, and maybe the golfing gods have decreed that he won't. He deserves it, but life isn't fair and he's never lit it up in previous Congressional visits.

John Duggan’s book Beat the Bookies is published by Poolbeg Press and is available in bookshops €12.99. He has been sports editor of 100-102 Today FM since 2005.