AFC – #5 Kansas City Chiefs @ #4 Indianapolis Colts – Saturday, 9.35pm GMT
Preview: The Chiefs and Colts will meet for the second time in three weeks and Indianapolis will be hoping to repeat their week 16 success with victory at Lucas Oil Stadium.
While Andy Reid’s tenure as Kansas City coach got off to a sensational 9-0 start, the last seven game weeks — in which they won just twice — seems to underline the concerns many had about their comparatively easy strength of schedule at the beginning of the season.
It’s easy to see where Kansas’ problems have occurred. During their nine-game win streak they gave up 12.3 points per game. That figure rocketed to 27.7 in the final seven.
On Saturday, Alex Smith will face a Colts defence that is finding its form at just the right time, forcing eight turnovers in its last three games (including four against Kansas) and allowing just nine third down conversions from 37 attempts (24.3%) in that run.
Interesting facts to tell your mates: Andrew Luck is perfect (2-0) in his career against the Chiefs and Kansas have not won a playoff game since 1993 (losing seven, including three to the Colts).
Line: The Colts are 2.5 point favourites.
Verdict: I didn’t buy the Chiefs when they were 9-0 so I definitely don’t buy them on a losing skid. Colts by 5+
NFC – # 6 New Orleans Saints @ # 3 Philadelphia Eagles – Sunday 1.10am GMT
Preview: The Philadelphia Eagles have a massive advantage over the Saints in that their playoff campaign started last week in a winner-takes-all match up with the Dallas Cowboys; their sixth victory in seven games behind Nick Foles, who started the season as backup to Michael Vick.
Foles has gone 8-2 as a starter, throwing just two interceptions to 27 touchdowns. Indeed his interception percentage (0.6%) and completion rate (64%) were both the best in the league, not bad considering the Eagles can also boast the NFL’s leading rusher in LeSean McCoy (1,607 yards).
It should come as no surprise that, with Drew Brees under centre, the Saints are no slouches when it comes to offence themselves, boasting the league’s second best passing attack (307.4 yards per game).
However, it’s their fourth ranked defence (305.7 ypg) they have to thank for reaching the postseason, giving up just five touchdowns of 20 or more yards over the entire season.
Worryingly for the Saints though, they lost their final three road games and are 0-5 with Brees in the playoffs away from home.
Interesting fact to tell your mates: Nick Foles and Drew Brees both played quarterback for Westlake High School in Austin, Texas.
Line: The Saints are 2.5 point underdogs.
Verdict: Philadelphia have been in playoff mode for a while now and home advantage really is key in this one. Eagles by 7.
AFC – #6 San Diego Chargers @ #3 Cincinnati Bengals – Sunday, 6.05pm GMT
Preview: The last time the Cincinatti Bengals won a playoff game, Madonna’s Justify my Love was top of the Billboard Hot 100 while Vanilla Ice’s ‘To the Extreme’ topped the album charts. The 23 years since their win over the Houston Oilers represents the joint longest active streak in the NFL.
It’s not for the want to trying either. This Sunday will be their fourth visit to the playoffs in five season and third with Andy Dalton at quarterback. He’ll be hoping to perform better than he has the last two years, throwing four interceptions and no touchdowns against the Houston Texans.
Cincinnati are an altogether different beast at home though and on Sunday they will have the psychological boost that comes with a perfect 8-0 record in Paul Brown Stadium this year.
There’s also the knowledge that they’ve already beaten the Chargers this year, something that will likely play heavily on the mind of Philip Rivers. Between 2006 and 2009, Rivers lead the Chargers to four straight AFC West titles, going 3-4 in the playoffs in that time.
This season though, they squeezed in on virtually the final play — and with a bit of help from the officials — after struggling badly against a second string Kansas City Chiefs team already guaranteed a postseason berth. On Sunday, they’ll face a defence that has given up just nine touchdowns and made 15 interceptions at home this year.
Interesting fact to tell your mates: Super Bowl champions Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, Joe Flacco and Aaron Rodgers all failed to win at the Bengals this year.
Line: The Bengals are 7 point favourites.
Verdict: It becomes a bit boring constantly picking the home favourites but it’s such and advantage in this case it’s impossible to ignore. Bengals by 7+
NFC – #5 San Francisco 49ers @ #4 Green Bay Packers – Sunday, 9.40pm GMT
The absence of Clay Matthews (above) severely limits the threat posed by the Packers to Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers offence who are already two for two against Green Bay in recent meetings. While they held San Francisco to just 2.8 yards per play in their week one match up, they still gave up 34 points in the game.
Even more worrying for Green Bay’s defensive co-ordinator Dom Capers is that he hasn’t seen his side hold a team to less than 21 points since week seven and watched them give up 35 points in three of their last five games.
On Sunday they face a 49ers offence that haven’t turned the ball over since week 14 and who are averaging a whopping thirty points per game over the last three weeks. Everything points in the direction of a road win for San Fran as they look to make back-to-back Super Bowl appearances.
However, Aaron Rodgers — as he proved last week — gives Green Bay a chance to win every single game. The NFC North had seven weeks without the Packers’ quarterback and still nobody could pip them to playoffs. With him in the line up, their offence is good enough to rack up five our more touchdowns. They may need to.
Interesting fact to tell your mates: Colin Kaepernick is the first quarterback in NFL history to throw 20 or more touchdowns to only three receivers, Vernon Davis (13), Anquan Boldin (7) and Michael Crabtree (1).
Line: Green Bay are 2.5 point underdogs.
Verdict: While I’m loathe to write Aaron Rodgers off at any time, the 49ers are perfectly equipped to dominate a poor Packers defence. San Francisco by 5+
