THE 2023 EDITION of the Africa Cup of Nations gets underway today when hosts Ivory Coast take on Guinea-Bissau.
Yes, it’s January 2024 but the tournament organisers are sticking with the original year despite moving it from last June-July due to those months falling in the height of the country’s rainy season.
So begins just under a month of unpredictability with the opportunity for ultimate glory at the end of it all when the final takes place on 11 February at the Alassane Ouattara Stadium.
Fate of the Champions
Senegal won the 2021 edition and Aliou Cisse’s side are bidding to reach their third final on the spin having lost the 2019 showpiece to Algeria. The core of the squad remains the same although experienced figures like Sadio Mane and Kalidou Koulibaly are on the wane and now play their club football in Saudi Arabia.
The influence of the manager is resolute despite some viewing his tactics as restrictive. Success has followed at home and abroad – England knocked them out at the last 16 stage of the 2022 World Cup – yet there is a sense that they are now in a tricky phase between talented generations.
Pape Matar Sarr of Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea’s Nicholas Jackson are emerging but it’s the driving force of 20-year-old Metz midfielder Lamine Camara – the reigning Young African Player of the Year – that adds a different dimension to Cisse’s plans.
Some will view their draw as a precarious one given that Cameroon, Gambia and Guinea all pose different threats. The latter have Serhou Guirassy in red-hot form, the Stuttgart striker trails Harry Kane in the Bundesliga scoring ranks (17 goals) and the 27-year-old has been linked with Manchester United.
Cameroon may be most vulnerable of all – even though four of the highest ranked third-placed teams from the six groups progress – but Senegal will still have to break with a kind of new-found tradition if they are to triumph once again.
Following a Trend
There have been different winners in each of the last seven tournaments while the hosts have not even reached the final during that same period.
On that basis, let’s rule out Ivory Coast who no longer seem to possess the same gravitas as it approaches a decade from their 2015 success when Yaya Toure was the talisman. Wilfried Zaha and Eric Bailly have both been omitted and while midfielder Franck Kessie is a recognisable figure from his time at AC Milan and Barcelona the 27-year-old is another who has headed to Saudi.
Brighton’s Simon Adingra (injury permitting) is an exciting winger while Monaco defender Wilfried Zongo is one to watch given he can operate as an attacking full back or as part of a central defence.
Senegal (2021), Algeria (2019), Cameroon (2017), Ivory Coast (2015), Nigeria (2013), Zambia (2012), Egypt (2008 and 2010) are those last seven winners so, naturally, that makes Morocco the clear favourites – more on that later.
Nigeria possesses the reigning African Player of the Year and Napoli striker Victor Osimhen will carry the weight of expectation for more than 200 million people in the continent’s largest population.
Algeria crashed out at the group stages last time out when they were defending champions and, given the tournament is taking place in one of the sub-Saharan countries it should be noted that the north Africans have failed to make the knockouts in three of the last four AFCONs outside of their region.
The last country to retain the title was Egypt (as part of a three in a row from 2006-10).
Salah’s Crowning Glory?
Mo Salah is probably the best player in the history of Egyptian football but for many he is not seen as the greatest.
Winning an AFCON title might just change that.
Ahmed Hassan had a credible club career in his native country before moving to Turkey, Belgium and then Saudi Arabia. It’s the midfielder’s international achievements that make him stand apart.
He was instrumental in his country’s three-in-a-row and was named player of the tournament in 2006 and 2010.
If Salah can help Egypt get over the line after losing in two of the last three finals then he will join the pantheon.
They are favourites to progress from their group with Ghana, Cape Verde and Mozambique so all Liverpool fans’ wishes that he returns before the end of the month are unlikely to be met.
Should Egypt top Group B they will also face the side that comes third in Group A, C or D. That could potentially lead to a quarter-final clash with Morocco on 3 February. Liverpool face Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium in the Premier League the following day by which point Salah would have been absent for a tricky away game with Bournemouth and the visit of Chelsea to Anfield.
Of course, if there are some major shocks courtesy of people closer to home than Salah might even be back on Merseyside in time to face Mauricio Pochettino’s men at the end of this month.
The Irish Connection
Ghana and Cape Verde are in Egypt’s group along with Mozambique and they all get underway tomorrow.
Shamrock Rovers centre back Pico Lopes, born and bred in Dublin, is taking part in his second AFCON having become an established international. His father, Carlos ‘Caluccha’ Lopes, was one of 12 siblings born on Sao Nicolau. It is one of the 10 islands which makes up Cape Verde and is almost 600 kilometres west of Africa.
Cape Verde were beaten by Senegal in the last 16 three years ago after a bug swept through the squad. Lopes has developed a partnership with Logan Costa at the heart of the defence and the 22-year-is forging a fine reputation for himself at Ligue 1 club Toulouse.
Their opening game with Chris Hughton’s Ghana is set to be a tense, tight affair.
The former Republic of Ireland international will be under pressure to lead the Black Stars deep into the competition – West Ham’s Mohammed Kudus is their primary attacking threat – but, like the hosts, they are not the force of old.
They share a border with the Ivory Coast and are expected to benefit from a decent travelling support.
Ghana’s performances – and results – will also bring into sharper focus Hughton’s suitability to the vacant Ireland job he has been linked to.
Moroccan Magic or Misery?
Surely everything is aligned for a famous Morocco victory given the recent history of winners and the fact the hosts now always flatter to deceive.
Still, the Atlas Lions have only lifted the trophy once in almost 50 years – 1976 – but are coming off the back of the most successful World Cup ever for an African side.
Their run to the semi-final in Qatar, losing out to France, was built on a defensive structure that saw them concede just once before that last-four defeat.
Such solidity will remain crucial to triumphing at AFCON but manager Walid Regragui knows there will be an added emphasis on breaking down sides who attempt to frustrate and punish in the same manner they did at the World Cup.
A 2-1 friendly win over Brazil last March continued the positive vibes but goalless draws with Peru and Cape Verde, followed by a 2-1 defeat to South Africa, a narrow 1-0 win over Burkina Faso and a 1-1 draw with Ivory Coast illustrates some of their woes in front of goal.
A 2-0 win over Tanzania – who they play in their opener on Wednesday – allayed some fears but Morocco don’t seem to have players in the same form in the attacking third.
Hakim Ziyech’s loan move from Chelsea to Galatasaray hasn’t been a fruitful one and he arrives at AFCON struggling to find the kind of rhythm that made him so potent at the World Cup.
Sevilla striker Youssef En-Nesyri is a Marmite figure who hasn’t scored since the end of November.
No better time to enjoy a purple patch that could bring glory to Morocco.
