WIN TOMORROW NIGHT in Lyon against Italy and New Zealand are as good as through to the World Cup quarter-finals.
They still have another pool game to go against Uruguay but it was always the strong likelihood that the Kiwis and hosts France would emerge from Pool A, with the order seemingly decided by les Bleus’ opening-night win against the All Blacks. Italy, who still have to play France too, must have cursed their bad luck in being drawn into this group.
New Zealand have never missed out on the knock-out stages of this competition. They’ve won three World Cups, been runners-up once, finished third three times, and ended up fourth on one occasion.
Their only quarter-final exit, to France in 2007, was greeted with nationwide anguish and anger that reverberated for years. Kiwis wondered if they were cursed in the World Cup but that narrative ended with the 2011 success on home soil, their first title since winning the first tournament in 1987. The 2015 victory was the best of all as a brilliant, experienced All Blacks team became the first to go back-to-back at World Cups.
It seems clear that the current Kiwi crop are not of the same calibre but they’re still a threat worth respecting. Far worse teams than this New Zealand side have reached World Cup semi-finals and finals. And though they don’t appear to be quite as strong as the other three contenders – France, South Africa, and Ireland – the Kiwis will fancy themselves when it comes to the knock-out games.
Ian Foster’s side have improved since last summer’s harrowing series defeat to Ireland on New Zealand soil. It’s worth remembering that Andy Farrell’s side needed a remarkable grandstand finish in the third Test to seal that success. It hurt the Kiwis deeply and Foster just about held onto his job.
Joe Schmidt came in full-time and has refined their starter plays and kicking game, while Jason Ryan joined to add extra edge and organisation to the forward pack. The Kiwis have changed their props – a move that was overdue – since that series, while Jordie Barrett has moved to 12 and largely been impressive there. The overall team selection has just been far more settled.
A hammering at the hands of South Africa in their final warm-up game was concerning for All Blacks supporters. That game possibly showed up a lack of top-level might in the Kiwi pack, which hasn’t been as intimidating or violent as some of the greatest All Blacks forward packs. France, the Boks, and Ireland probably have belief that they can squeeze this Kiwi team in a way that wasn’t always possible in the past.
The French did as much on opening night in Paris, finishing over the top of New Zealand in the final quarter. It was frustrating for Foster and Schmidt that their side started both halves so well, scoring superb tries that should have allowed them to kick on and take control of the contest.
Those tries, both finished by wing Mark Telea, showed just how dangerous this Kiwi team is. Scything runs from Rieko Ioane and Will Jordan, a cross-kick from Beauden Barrett, a ludicrously skillful first-phase chip kick from number eight Ardie Savea – they showed the full array of the Kiwis’ attacking qualities married with Schmidt’s planning.
The Kiwis were missing a few key men that day. First-choice tighthead prop Tyrel Lomax was sidelined with a nasty wound suffered in the warm-up against South Africa, Jordie Barrett was missing with a knee issue, captain Sam Cane was ruled out at a late stage with a back problem, and explosive blindside flanker Shannon Frizell was rehabbing a hamstring injury. All four would likely have started otherwise.
Those four were also absent for the 71-3 hammering of Namibia in New Zealand’s second pool game but they’re all returning to the matchday 23 for tomorrow night’s meeting with the Italians.
Barrett starts at 12 for the first time since the disappointing outing against the Springboks. He was off-colour that day, along with most of the Kiwi team, but had been flying at inside centre before that, offering a triple threat of his carrying, passing, and kicking, as well as throwing himself into defensive work with aggression.
Frizell has missed New Zealand’s last three games, including the Boks warm-up, having been in his best Test form ever prior to that. The Kiwis always viewed him as an explosive back row who could physically impact the biggest games and he finally appeared to be moving to match that expectation prior to his injury. He starts at number six tomorrow.
Skipper Cane will make his comeback as a replacement in Lyon. He isn’t universally popular as All Blacks skipper despite proving himself over 90 Test caps, but he is a class, tough player. Unfortunately for Cane, it’s impossible for people not to compare him with Richie McCaw. Still, the All Blacks are glad to have him fit again this weekend.
Lomax also returns on the bench against Italy. The horrible gash he got on his thigh when plastic studs slid across it during the Boks game has healed. The 27-year-old tighthead took over as the All Blacks’ starter at number three in the wake of the Ireland series, which involved Andy Farrell’s side exposing the Kiwi props. While Lomax remains a work in progress, he was missed against France.
The Kiwis are now without loosehead prop Ethan de Groot, who also became a starter after the Ireland series, due to his ban for a high tackle against Namibia but he will return as the starting number one in time for the quarter-finals.
The matchday 23 Foster is sending out tomorrow night is much closer to his strongest possible selection. The backline is completely first-choice and the forward options have clearly improved.
Sam Whitelock will become the most-capped All Black in history when he comes off the bench, taking him one past McCaw on 149. He misses out on a start due to Scott Barrett’s excellent form and the proven prowess of Brodie Retallick, who is still working back towards his best after suffering a knee injury before the World Cup.
So while France, Ireland, and the Springboks are more strongly fancied to win this World Cup outright in most quarters, the New Zealanders will be quietly confident if tomorrow night goes well and leaves them set for a quarter-final against the Irish, South Africans, or Scottish.
They’ll be dangerous no matter who they face but they’d surely love a chance for redemption against Ireland in the white-hot pressure of a World Cup quarter-final at Stade de France.
