ULSTER’S FIRST VICTORY of the season — away to Zebre in the Challenge Cup — was like a tree falling in a forest: if nobody was there to see it, did it really happen?

It’s harsh, of course, but how many Ulster fans would have had to Google their fixture a few days out? Some of you will shake your fists at the mere thought, and some of you will be like, ‘Yeah, that was me.’ A Challenge Cup pool-stage win in Parma proves nothing, really, and Richie Murphy’s side would be wise to do away with that competition altogether based on their start in the URC.

Last season, Richie Murphy stated without apology that his side would prioritise the URC over a Challenge Cup run. And while it would be unjust to criticise the efforts of Murphy and Ulster for reaching the final of Europe’s secondary competition, Murphy’s deviation from his initial plan has led to a last-chance saloon for his reign in charge.

At the end of last season, Murphy prioritised Ulster’s Challenge Cup final against Montpellier over their must-win URC final-round clash with league-leading Glasgow, for which the Ulster boss made 10 changes to his side which had shared the spoils with second-placed Stormers a week earlier.

Granted, Murphy was caught between the rock that is URC play-off qualification (and subsequent Champions Cup rugby) and the hard place that is to try to end a 20-year trophy drought in a European final against a superior side in 35-degree heat in Bilbao. In hindsight, it’s easy to say Murphy backed the wrong horse, with Ulster finishing ninth in the URC before Montpellier taught them a harsh lesson in their European final the following week.

But to miss out on Champions Cup rugby again this season would be terminal for this Ulster coaching setup, and indeed some of their players. Ulster’s baseline expectation last season was to reach the top eight of the URC — and, even though, by the end of March, with four games remaining, Ulster led the rest of the provinces in third spot in the URC table, they conspired to botch it.

As such, their results so far this season are cause for concern: last season, Ulster walloped Munster at Affidea Stadium in January, and they did a number on Edinburgh away from home in March. From the equivalent matchups in this new campaign, they’re seven points short on the table. It doesn’t augur well for a side who went 4-1-6 against the sides ahead of them in the table last term.

Winless in the URC despite a couple of rousing second halves away to Glasgow and at home to Munster, Ulster this week head to South Africa in search of ignition. It might have to wait.

This afternoon, they face a Bulls side in Pretoria who have clocked up 50-plus points in their last two home fixtures.

Johann Ackermann’s Bulls blasted the Lions 57-15 a fortnight ago in the URC before defeating an admittedly disinterested Stade Francais 56-20 in their Champions Cup pool-stage tie at Loftus Versfeld last weekend.

In their team selection, the Bulls’ gameplan is simple: monster Ulster up front, just as Munster managed to do in the first half in Belfast two weeks ago.

Ackermann has switched out his entire starting pack from the win over Stade, bringing in Gerhard Steenekamp, Johan Grobbelaar, and Francois in the front row, with Ruan Vermaak and Reinhardt Ludwig returning to the engine room, while Marcell Coetzee is back to captain the Pretorians from blindside alongside Hanro Liebenberg and Elrigh Louw in the back row. The hosts mean business for this fixture.

Andy Farrell will have a keen eye on how Dave McCann and Nick Timoney front up in the face of such force, while Rassie Erasmus will equally take a look at Juarno Augustus ahead of the November Test window in which Ireland face the Springboks in the back half of November.

Ulster, meanwhile, have included eight internationals in their squad, which only furthers the point that they need to take something away from their two-week tour of South Africa against the Bulls and the Stormers.

They couldn’t quite be described as victims of their own success, given they’re yet to achieve as much, but Ulster were certainly weakened last season by the call-ups of an increased number of prospective internationals. Soon to be missing eight of their best players (albeit the Stormers will also be afflicted next week), it feels imperative that the northern province take something away from Pretoria.

The likes of Cormac Izuchukwu will be smarting at his exclusion from Andy Farrell’s November squad and he’ll need to be demonic to stick his head above the parapet in the next couple of weeks, when he’ll surely be the first in the queue to replace any injured Ireland second row.

Ulster took six points home from South Africa — away to the Sharks (a 34-26 win) and the Lions (a 49-31 loss) respectively, and to come away with even only a point or two this time around would leave them behind the eight ball given they’ve already dropped points at home to both Edinburgh and Munster.

Victory in Durban last season was a bolt from the blue but it’s equally evidence that Ulster have a South African smash-and-grab in them.

A testing tour awaits, and to keep their head above water wouldn’t be a bad return from the Rainbow Nation.

Bulls: Luan Giliomee, Sebastian de Klerk, Sango Xamlashe, Harold Vorster, Cheswill Jooste, Handre Pollard, Paul de Wet; Gerhard Steenekamp, Johan Grobbelaar, Francois Klopper, Ruan Vermaak, Reinhardt Ludwig, Marcell Coetzee (Captain), Hanro Liebenberg, Elrigh Louw

Replacements: Marco van Staden, Alu Tshakweni, Khutha Mchunu, Cobus Wiese, Cameron Hanekom, Zak Burger, Curwin Bosch, Dylan Maart

Ulster: Jacob Stockdale, Chay Mullins, Jamie Benson, Stuart McCloskey, Michael Lowry, Jack Murphy, Nathan Doak; Tom O’Toole, Tom Stewart (Captain), Keynan Knox, Ben Donnell, Cormac Izuchukwu, David McCann, Nick Timoney, Juarno Augustus

Replacements: Henry Walker, Eric O’Sullivan, Scott Wilson, Eli Snyman, James McNabney, Matthew Devine, Jake Flannery, James McKillop

Referee: Ru Campbell (Scotland)

TV: Premier Sports, 12:45pm