1. Leinster
WE’VE BEEN HERE before, but Leinster are probably the best team in Europe as things stand and they also look best positioned of any of the top contenders to reach the final in London on 25 May.
While Leo Cullen’s men haven’t quite torn up the URC regular season to the same extent as they have in past campaigns, Jacques Nienaber’s influence is beginning to take shape to an ominous extent for the rest of Europe. The double World Cup-winning South African coach stressed in January that it would take 14 game-weeks for his new players to “rewire their brains” and perfectly embed his defensive system. Last weekend’s annihilation of the Bulls, who managed just one try — off transition — in the sides’ top-of-the-table clash at the RDS, suggested that Leinster are bang on schedule if not ahead of it.
Their matchday squad to face Leicester Tigers at the Aviva Stadium tonight contains 17 players who saw game-time in Ireland’s Six Nations-winning campaign, as well as starting out-half Ross Byrne who missed that competition through injury.
Leinster should dispose of tonight’s visitors with relative ease, which would yield a home tie with either nemeses La Rochelle — who look a shadow of their former selves as things stand — or the Stormers.
Their most likely semi-final opponents would be the Bulls, against whom they just racked up nearly 50 points despite what was a genuinely competitive first half.
It seems more likely than not that Leinster will reach the showpiece, and in Nienaber, they may have added the final ingredient to get them over the line.
2. Toulouse
Top seeds Toulouse are on the other side of the draw and, in relative terms, should cruise to the semis at least: they firstly host a Racing side tomorrow who, while having seemingly turned the corner on what’s been a poor first season under Stuart Lancaster, will be without first-choice half-backs Nolann Le Garrec and Antoine Gibert. Toulouse, meanwhile, are getting the band back together with Romain Ntamack — back from the ACL injury that ruled him out of the World Cup — partnering The GOAT, Antoine Dupont, in the pivot.
Provided they can see off that weakened Racing side, Toulouse will then host the winner of Exeter Chiefs and Bath in the quarters. Their most likely semi-final opponents are Bordeaux, at whose ground they recently shared a Top 14 epic.
While Ugo Mola’s side came out on the wrong side of the 31-28 scoreline, they were forced to deploy Dupont at out-half after Thomas Ramos’ late withdrawal and they still came mightily close to sealing a come-from-behind victory.
The only black mark against Toulouse’s credentials is that they’ve looked like one of the three best teams in Europe for the last couple of seasons only to be proven a distant third in the Champions Cup, where they’ve been hockeyed by Leinster in consecutive years.
But inspired by a meaner-looking pack, the five-time European champions have ticked along nicely without Ntamack and, for large spells of the season, without soon-to-be Olympian Dupont. Their respective returns could be enough to steer Les Toulousains to London.
3. Bordeaux Bègles
At times the most exhilarating team in Europe to watch this season, Bordeaux have progressed from ‘dark horses’ following their obliteration of Connacht in their pool opener to legitimate contenders to win their first European title.
With the soccer team now stuck in the mud of Ligue 2, Bordeaux is now a city which gets its continental kicks from its rugby club who have fully embraced the Champions Cup where other rising forces in the French game would unabashedly prioritise domestic matters.
Yannick Bru’s side, whose joyous attack is coached by former Ireland U20s boss Noel McNamara, today host 13th-seeded Saracens, a side against whom they racked up 55 points during the pool stage. The complexion of this evening’s last-16 tie was initially changed by the loss of Bordeaux out-half Mathieu Jalibert, who is arguably more integral to Bordeaux’s attacking shape than even Dupont is to Toulouse’s equivalent. But Jalibert’s absence should be at least somewhat offset by the reality that Sarries will be without the similarly influential Owen Farrell.
An eminently winnable home quarter-final against Harlequins awaits for Bru’s men should they repeat the trick against today’s opponents. A semi-final against Toulouse would make for a different matter: the sides are one apiece in the Top 14 this season, with Toulouse edging Bordeaux at home in October and Bordeaux reversing that result by a similarly slender margin on their patch a fortnight ago.
4. La Rochelle
Ronan O’Gara won’t have panicked that his European champions have been a bit off-colour throughout both their European and domestic campaigns: they’re a clutch side with enough muscle memory to show up when the chips are down from April onwards.
Still, their late slip-up against the Stormers in Cape Town during the pool stage looks costly: it has resulted in a far more scenic route towards a prospective final, which begins against the same opposition later today.
That alone will prove a massive chin check for La Rochelle who, should they prevail at DHL Stadium, will then more than likely face Leinster in a Dublin quarter-final.
Who the hell knows what could happen from there?
But firstly, a victory against John Dobson’s Stormers side, who seem hellbent on making their own mark on the Champions Cup this term, would at least sound the alarm that ROG’s Rochelais are back in the game.
5. Northampton Saints
Phil Dowson and Sam Vesty’s Saints are decidedly the best team in England and on Sunday, at home to Munster, we’ll discover the extent to which those credentials are applicable to Europe.
Northampton are third seeds, meaning they’ll host their quarter-final — most likely against the Bulls — should they see off Graham Rowntree’s side.
They would also have a semi-final in England if Leinster were knocked off their stride along the way — by La Rochelle or anyone else — and if Saints make it that far, they’ll have already proven themselves legit contenders to win a second European title.
6. The Bulls
The Bulls should lay waste to a heavily rotated Lyon in today’s last-16 tie at Loftus Versfeld, from which point they will either host Munster back on the Highveld or travel to Northampton to face the Saints in a quarter-final.
Intriguingly, there is a world in which the Bulls will play both their quarter-final and semi-final at Northampton’s Franklin’s Gardens: because the South African franchises are not yet permitted to host a last-four fixture in their home country, Jake White’s Bulls have selected the Saints’ home ground as their base in the event that they wind up the top-seeded semi-finalists on their side of the draw.
It’s more likely, of course, that if the Bulls reach the semis, they’ll have to return to Dublin to face a Leinster side who recently beat them by seven tries to one at the RDS.
This season’s competition might have come a year too soon for the Pretorians to win the whole thing but they’re certainly capable of taking out a big name in the quarters, be it Munster’s or that of the third-seeded Saints.
7. Saracens
The reality is that Saracen’s chances of reaching even the quarter-finals are slim — but if they can overcome the Jalibert-less Bordeaux today, Mark McCall’s would then have to travel only across town to face Harlequins, a side who they beat 52-7 a fortnight ago.
A semi-final, most likely in France against Toulouse, would be a more daunting prospect — but Sarries would be one of the few sides who probably wouldn’t view it as such if they were to make it that far.
8. Munster
The only reason that Munster feature on the list ahead of the likes of Exeter, Bath and the Stormers is because they’ve pulled off a miracle knockout run more recently than any of their fellow outsiders.
Graham Rowntree’s side have thus far proven under-powered and underwhelming in the Champions Cup but they equally know what they are for the moment: a team built for spring-time rugby, dry tracks, and backs-to-the-wall away days.
Can Munster travel to Franklin’s Gardens and beat the Saints, a side who upset them on their own turf with 14 men in the pool stage? For some reason, the answer is yes — but it’s also probably dependent on the weather.
Could they then travel to Loftus Versfeld and tame the Bulls at altitude? Probably not — but they’re three games unbeaten in South Africa and would relish the chance to prove us all wrong again.
