WITH THE CHAMPIONS Cup reaching the quarter-final stages this weekend, we take a look at the last eight teams standing as the road to Aviva Stadium on 20 May heats up.
1. Leinster
Even with Johnny Sexton sidelined there is a sense of destiny about Leinster’s drive for five this season – with the province guaranteed home advantage right through to next month’s decider, should they make it that far.
Heavy favourites to beat Leicester Tigers tonight, Leo Cullen’s side have hardly been troubled on their way to the quarter-finals. They dispatched of Ulster last Saturday without the services of Grand Slam winners Caelan Doris and Garry Ringrose, while this weekend the loss of Josh van der Flier sees Doris come in at openside to form a dynamic backrow alongside the in-form Ryan Baird and Jack Conan.
With similar depth all over the park, added to the fact their key players will put their feet up for the final two rounds of regular season URC fixtures, the province are in pole position to land a first Champions Cup title since 2018.
2. La Rochelle
Can last year’s champions go all the way again? If so, it would be an even more impressive achievement than their historic success in Marseille.
Ronan O’Gara’s men have a tough looking task on the cards tomorrow as they host Saracens, where a win would tee them up for a home game against either Exeter or the Stormers. The French side also have Top 14 demands to juggle – they trail leaders Toulouse by six points – and needed a last-gasp try to avoid a shock defeat to Gloucester last weekend, but they certainly have the quality to go all the way again. Their pack tends to get most of the attention but O’Gara’s team are well able to carve up the opposition with ball in hand, too.
A repeat of last year’s final against Leinster looks highly likely and would provide a blockbuster ending to the Champions Cup season.
3. Toulouse
The five-time champions look better equipped to launch a proper assault on the competition than they did last year, but will have to do it the hard way. Beat the Sharks tomorrow, and they will probably have to travel to Dublin for a semi-final date with Leinster.
The province beat the French side 40-17 in their Dublin semi-final last year but the visitors were still recovering from their exhaustive shoot-out defeat of Munster at Aviva Stadium a week previously. A fresher, hungrier Toulouse would certainly provide a stiffer challenge for Leinster this time around, and it would make for a fascinating semi-final.
The talent across their backline is fearsome but their power-game is also a real weapon and Toulouse know how to play smart when the occasion demands it – think back to their win in the thick Thomond Park fog earlier this year. Like La Rochelle, league demands could come into play but don’t rule out the Top 14 leaders going on to land a famous double.
4. Saracens
Leinster’s old foes are back in the Champions Cup after a two-year absence and they know what it takes to win the competition. The old guard didn’t exactly light it up with England during the Six Nations but Owen Farrell has had some excellent performances for Sarries this year and it would be foolish write off the likes of Maro Itoje when it comes to knockout rugby.
Saracens are top of the Premiership and while the quality of that competition wouldn’t instill much confidence, Mark McCall’s side are well able to finding another level when it comes to this competition. They’ve a big challenge on their hands this weekend as they hit the road to play La Rochelle, but topple the French giants and they can look forward to a very winnable semi-final against either Exeter or the Stormers.
5. Stormers
Great fun to watch, but do the Stormers have the quality to go all the way in Europe? On paper, probably, but they’ve a lot of air miles to clock before booking a place in the Aviva Stadium final.
John Dobson’s side visit Exeter on Saturday and while it’s a game they can win, their ‘home’ semi-final would see them play Saracens in London while the other possibility is an away game against La Rochelle. Last season’s URC champions are a quality team who have made their mark on this competition but the travels demands placed on them are a major hurdle.
6. Exeter
Winners in 2020, Exeter are not the force of old and while they remain hard to beat on their day thanks to the classic, pragmatic Exeter gameplan, they are also capable of letting the floodgates open.
In the last month alone Exeter – who have lost eight from 17 in the Premiership – have shipped 36 points at Bath at 40 at Harlequins. Sandy Park is never an easy place for visiting teams but tomorrow’s clash with a Stormers side well capable of putting up big numbers could be the end of the road. If Exeter do advance, they’ll either play La Rochelle (away) or (Saracens) home, with Leinster or Toulouse likely waiting on the other side, and they probably don’t have the squad depth required to pull off that series of upsets.
7. Sharks
Will be feeling good about themselves after flexing their muscles against Munster in Durban but the Sharks can be wildly inconsistent across 80 minutes, let alone game to game. At the business end of the Champions Cup, that will get punished.
A squad laced with Springboks can trouble Toulouse at the Stade Ernest Wallon tomorrow but the French side won’t offer up as many opportunities as Munster did, and have the power to match the South Africans. Even if they win in France, like the Stormers, travel demands will surely take a toll.
8. Leicester
Last year’s Premiership winners might have featured higher on this list if they had a kinder route to the final but a Tigers Champions Cup win look highly unlikely. It will take a massive effort to beat Leinster tonight and if they do pull off a shock in Dublin, their reward will be an away semi-final against Toulouse or the Sharks (a game which would be played in London).
Leicester have a decent squad and while their kick-heavy gameplan can be effective, they can look a little limited and probably don’t have the quality to go all the way, even allowing for a famous win in Dublin tonight.
Champions Cup quarter-finals
Friday 7 April
Leinster Rugby v Leicester Tigers
Aviva Stadium, 8pm, live on RTÉ/BT Sport
Saturday 8 April
Toulouse v Cell C Sharks
Stade Ernest Wallon, 3pm, live on BT Sport
Exeter Chiefs v DHL Stormers
Sandy Park, 5.30pm, live on BT Sport
Sunday 9 April
La Rochelle v Saracens,
Stade Marcel Deflandre, 3pm, live on BT Sport
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