Permutations
CONNACHT NEED A miracle if they are to reach the Champions Cup last 16.
The western province require not only that they hammer Bristol Bears on Friday (8pm, TNT Sport), but that Lyon soundly beat Saracens at StoneX Stadium the following night.
The former — in Galway, especially — isn’t beyond the realms of possibility. But the latter feels inconceivable from this vantage point.
For starters, Saracens need a result against Lyon to have a chance of reaching the last 16. More pertinently, though, Lyon are already through and are likely to send their ‘espoirs’ to North London while preserving their frontliners for their upcoming Top 14 basement battle with Perpignan.
Even if the overall results swung in their direction, Connacht would need to prevent Bristol from picking up a bonus point, while also hoping Saracens come up totally empty, in order to land a last-16 spot.
The more likely aim for Connacht is to parachute into the Challenge Cup via a fifth-placed finish in their pool. To guarantee this, Pete Wilkins’ men would need to earn either a bonus-point victory over Bristol while denying the Bears a bonus point of their own, or a bonus-point victory by 20-plus points which would see them overtake Bristol even if the visitors were to pick up a four-try bonus of their own.
Bristol, meanwhile, need to win — and need to equal or better Sarries’ inevitable margin of victory over Lyon — if they are to reach the knockouts.
Got it? Never doubted you.
Salutations
Friday night’s fixture at The Sportsground will see plenty of old friends reunited.
Connacht’s Bristol-born lock Joe Joyce proved so popular during his nine years at Ashton Gate that he became known colloquially as ‘The King of Southmead’ (the council estate on the northside of his home city in which he grew up). Joyce, however, while a mightily proud Bristolian, always felt a stronger connection to his Galway roots than that of his English heritage. He will relish the visit of his hometown club to the land of his ancestors.
Connacht forwards coach John Muldoon will also pit his wits against the club who gave him his coaching break while, on the other side, Bristol boss Pat Lam returns to the ground at which he masterminded some of the western province’s greatest ever days.
Bristol count among their playing personnel former Connacht men AJ MacGinty, Jake Heenan, and most notably, now, Kieran Marmion. The 28-cap Ireland scrum-half was adored by both by fans and by Connacht’s squad, many of whom remain some of his closest friends. Marmion will be desperate to influence proceedings in Galway having been sacrificed in the summer so that a younger crop of scrum-halves could push through to challenge Caolin Blade.
Six Nations
Pete Wilkins has reintroduced to the fold Finlay Bealham — at whose wedding Marmion was a groomsman — and World Player of the Year nominee Bundee Aki as Connacht attempt to stay alive in Europe.
The pair sat out last Saturday’s defeat to Lyon as part of the IRFU’s player-management protocols. They had already maxed out their minutes between the World Cup and the Six Nations, for which they were the only two Connacht players named in Andy Farrell’s 34-man Ireland squad.
This was Connacht’s prerogative: all provincial coaches understand the lay of the land as it pertains to these IRFU restrictions and Wilkins plainly felt that his two Ireland stars would be better used on other occasions, including in the URC where Connacht currently sit a point outside the play-off spots and, by extension, Champions Cup qualification for next season.
But it’s not an exaggeration to suggest that Bealham and Aki might have made a profound difference to proceedings at the Stade de Gerland last weekend, where the 34-20 final score in Lyon’s favour slightly belied the extent to which Connacht were well in with a shout for the majority of the game.
A handful of other Connacht players — most notably Cian Prendergast and Caolin Blade — will enter this Bristol fixture still frothing from their respective exclusions from Farrell’s plans.
The western province will hope that a combination of their returning Ireland stars and scorned fringe internationals can combine to inspire the performance required to extend their European campaign in some way, shape or form.
Connacht
- 15. Tiernan O’Halloran (228)
- 14. Andrew Smith (6)
- 13. David Hawkshaw (21)
- 12. Bundee Aki (131)
- 11. Shayne Bolton (9)
- 10. JJ Hanrahan (11)
- 9. Caolin Blade (181)
- 1. Denis Buckley (239)
- 2. Tadgh McElroy (9)
- 3. Finlay Bealham (196)
- 4. Niall Murray (65)
- 5. Joe Joyce (10)
- 6. Cian Prendergast (58)
- 7. Shamus Hurley-Langton (29)
- 8. Jarrad Butler (121)
Replacements
- 16. Dave Heffernan (188)
- 17. Peter Dooley (28)
- 18. Jack Aungier (59)
- 19. Oisín Dowling (52)
- 20. Conor Oliver (74)
- 21. Michael McDonald (4)
- 22. Jack Carty (203)
- 23. Oran McNulty (14)
Bristol Bears
- 15. Max Malin (27)
- 14. Kalaveti Ravouvou (5)
- 13. Virimi Vakatawa (12)
- 12. Benhard Janse van Rensburg (16)
- 11. Gabriel Ibitoye (32)
- 10. AJ MacGinty (29)
- 9. Harry Randall (117)
- 1. Jake Woolmore (144)
- 2. Gabriel Oghre (9)
- 3. Kyle Sinckler (52)
- 4. Josh Caulfield (18)
- 5. Joe Batley (55)
- 6. Steven Luatua (121)
- 7. Fitz Harding (captain) (63)
- 8. Magnus Bradbury (36)
Replacements:
- 16. Will Capon (83)
- 17. Sam Grahamslaw (6)
- 18. Max Lahiff (79)
- 19. Joe Owen (3)
- 20. Dan Thomas (142)
- 21. Kieran Marmion (16)
- 22. James Williams (33)
- 23. Piers O’Connor (129)
Officials
- Ref: Pierre Brousett (Fra)
- AR: Kevin Bralley (Fra)
- AR: Pierre-Baptiste Nuchy (Fra)
- TMO: Denis Grenouillet (Fra)
