EARLIER THIS WEEK, I met with former All Blacks scrum-half Andy Ellis who interviewed me ahead of Saturday’s quarter-final between our two countries.
Andy has been based in France throughout the World Cup, making video content for the All Blacks, but he and his crew had come over to Dublin to check what the vibe was like ahead of Saturday.
During the chat, I asked Andy what New Zealand really think of Ireland now: do they finally respect us? And he said up until Ireland’s series win on Kiwi soil last summer, they didn’t truly hold us in the same regard as South Africa or France. But now they do.
To further illustrate this, Andy told me he had already interviewed All Blacks head coach Ian Foster to get his thoughts on facing Ireland this weekend and that rather than saying something along the lines of, ‘You have to beat the best to be the best’, Foster instead intimated that the draw had been unkind to New Zealand.
I thought it was interesting the All Blacks boss had immediately reached for a negative sentiment rather than spinning the game as a challenge to relish. How un-Kiwi-like is that?
Clearly, Foster feels this game will be on a knife-edge, and he’s probably right.
Ireland will go into the game fully expecting to beat New Zealand again but they’ll equally know that these All Blacks will provide an even sterner examination of their credentials than the side which fell to them on home soil last summer. And that series was ultimately pretty close.
So, how do Ireland go about beating New Zealand this time around?
Well, firstly, they need to avoid making the mistakes that they made in the first Test last summer, where a loose ball turns into two New Zealand offloads and, before you know it, they’ve gone the length of the pitch for a try.
For all that our memories might fool us into believing that Ireland went down to New Zealand last summer and simply taught the All Blacks a lesson, it was Ireland who were reacquainted with a harsh truth about playing New Zealand in that series opener: Andy Farrell’s side played the majority of the rugby in the first half and wound up getting hosed 42-19 at the All Blacks’ fortress, Eden Park. They conceded six tries — including three in the space of eight first-half minutes which completely changed the complexion of the game, as did Johnny Sexton’s injury on the half-hour mark.
Ireland were admittedly luckless that day in Auckland but they discovered that if you give New Zealand an inch, they’ll take 100-odd yards and run it under your sticks.
Incredibly, Ireland haven’t lost in their 17 games since, but some of those lessons from Eden Park will certainly apply to Paris on Saturday where an even more deadly All Blacks side awaits.
Ireland need to keep the ball and run New Zealand through phases. They will eventually punch holes in the All Blacks’ defence, which just isn’t quite as good as Ireland’s.
But they’ll also need to be patient. It’s about staying in the game.
I’ve always felt that when it gets to the top level of rugby, it’s less about being able to do something amazing — because pretty much every player on the field at the Stade de France will be able to do amazing things — and more about being able to not make mistakes for long periods.
That’s especially true when you’re playing against New Zealand, where Ireland could batter at their line for 20 phases, knock the ball on, and Rieko Ioane or Mark Telea or Will Jordan run the pitch.
As a player, I don’t think you can actively focus on not making mistakes. Instead, you need to be so razor-sharp on your detail that it becomes second nature, almost muscle memory.
If you’re crystal clear on detail, and fully accurate, then elements of the game like physicality in your attacking breakdown almost look after themselves.
There’s such a clarity to that, then, that it’s just about going out and giving the right context to it — i.e. knowing which part of your game to use at a given time.
On the other side of the ball, Ireland’s initial collisions in defence will have to be positive. What makes New Zealand so special — and they might be second only to Fiji in this — is that they only need to get one hand free in the tackle in order to shred you.
Scrum-half Aaron Smith is in that same elite bracket as Antoine Dupont and our own Jamison Gibson-Park when it comes to running support lines extending transition attacks which wreak havoc and ultimately lead to scores.
With their own structured play, I think New Zealand will go after Ireland in the air. Hugo Keenan is an amazing fielder of a high ball so, instead, they’ll probably target James Lowe and Mack Hansen or whoever starts on Ireland’s wings in the event that Lowey and Mack don’t recover in time from their respective injuries.
For New Zealand, going to the air wouldn’t necessarily be about winning every aerial contest cleanly but about trying to create situations with loose, bobbling balls that they can seize upon and turn into transition attack where they’re most lethal.
Ultimately, the looser the game, the more it suits New Zealand. As such, it’s important that when Ireland do knock a ball on or make an error, that they kill the ball and don’t let New Zealand immediately switch to transition.
The same goes for the kicking game: if you’re going to put it off the field, put it off properly, because New Zealand love nothing more than being given the chance to go quickly.
That’s a double-edged sword, mind you, because when you put it off properly, you’re bringing Joe Schmidt into the game!
Joe will 100% have a couple of tricks up his sleeve for Ireland. I have no doubt he’s been plotting for this game since he joined the All Blacks coaching staff last year. He has certainly made these All Blacks more clinical and one of the keys to beating Ireland is that you simply have to take the few opportunities that you get against them.
Joe will have a few revenge plays for us in order to create those chances, but will he have his revenge?
Ultimately, the key to New Zealand winning the game will be to create those front-foot opportunities for the likes of Ioane, Telea, and Jordan, and to then take them. And the key to Ireland winning the game will be to deny New Zealand those very opportunities. Something’s gotta give.
But I would back Ireland’s defence over New Zealand’s attack, personally. I think it looks excellently coached by Simon Easterby. It smothers teams who can’t blast their way through it — and New Zealand don’t quite have the luxury of being able to play bully-ball the way South Africa could a few weeks ago.
Ireland stood up to that test in any case. To be honest, I don’t think they have any glaringly obvious weaknesses at the moment.
They’ll trust their ‘D’, their discipline continues to be exemplary, and their attack can hurt any team in the world.
Saturday’s game will be incredible and fraught with scares. But I’m backing Ireland to win it by seven points.
Who do you think will win Saturday’s showdown between Ireland and New Zealand? (Odds courtesy of BoyleSports)
Poll Results:
BoyleSports Choose Your Boost for Ireland v New Zealand is now live. Get enhanced prices on Ireland to win (now 6/4) or New Zealand to win (now 2/1) Saturday’s big match. Ts & Cs apply; max bet €10 per customer.
Choose Your Boost. Don’t just bet. Choose Wisely.