YOU CAN START the countdown to the Cheltenham Festival wherever you wish: 361 days beforehand if you want, on the Friday night, looking back on the four days that have just flashed past, trying to assimilate it all with the 20-20 vision that is hindsight and project to the future.
Or you can start it at the beginning of the National Hunt season, when just about every owner of a maiden hurdle winner or a beginners’ chase winner wonders if that could be the first step on the road that leads to Cheltenham in March. Or you can start after Cheltenham in November, or after the Christmas festivals, or after the Dublin Racing Festival in early February.
Or now, three weeks out.
It’s three weeks and two days, actually, to the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup, the blue riband of National Hunt racing, and this year’s renewal is shaping up to be a fascinating one. There are contradictory lines of form, but that just adds to the intrigue. Minella Indo beat A Plus Tard in last year’s renewal, with the 2019 and 2020 winner Al Boum Photo back in third and Frodon back in fifth. Then the same Minella Indo could only finish third behind the same Frodon in the Champion Chase at Down Royal in October, and he was disappointing in the King George at Kempton in December. Galvin finished second in the Down Royal race, but he beat A Plus Tard in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown at Christmas, digging deep to get home by a short head.
In a parallel universe, Al Boum Photo was doing what Al Boum Photo usually does on his seasonal debut, winning the (other) Savills Chase at Tramore on New Year’s Day. And Tornado Flyer and Conflated and Protektorat all threw their contenders’ hats into the Gold Cup ring by landing, respectively, the King George and the Irish Gold Cup and the Many Clouds Chase.
There have been bounce-backs too. Chantry House bounced back from his poor run in the King George and won the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham at the end of January, though not overly convincingly. Minella Indo bounced back from his poor run in the King George, running much better in the Irish Gold Cup, finishing second to Conflated.
Now draw all the strands together.
You can understand why A Plus Tard is favourite. Henry de Bromhead’s horse ran a big race last year to finish second to his stable companion Minella Indo, completing a 1-2 for his trainer in the Gold Cup, the culmination of a truly remarkable week. On his debut this season, in the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November, the Cheveley Park Stud’s horse pulverised his rivals, beating the 163-rated Royal Pagaille by 22 lengths.
He was beaten by Galvin in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown at Christmas, but he was only just beaten, and he made his ground through the hottest part of the race, leading on the run to the final fence and only just giving best to Galvin in the final strides. He is proven at Cheltenham, at the Cheltenham Festival, and he will have Rachael Blackmore for company. There are lots of positives.
A Plus Tard is a 3/1 shot, and that looks about right. By contrast, his stable companion is generally available at 5/1, and that looks big. Minella Indo was a very good winner of the Gold Cup last year, he could have been called as the most likely winner from a long way out, and he appeared to win with more in hand than the bare winning margin of just over a length.
He was beaten at Down Royal on his seasonal return, and he was pulled up in the King George at Kempton at Christmas, but there was mitigation for both. He is rarely at his best on his seasonal debut, he usually comes on for a run, and nothing went right in the King George. He was fitted with cheekpieces and ridden forward in a race that was run at a frenetic pace at a track that probably didn’t suit. It just wasn’t his running. He was a beaten horse with a circuit to go.
Cheekpieces removed, he went back to Leopardstown for the Irish Gold Cup two and a half weeks ago and he was much better, keeping on to take second place behind Conflated. He is going to have to step forward again if he is going to win the Gold Cup, but there is every chance that he will. Remember that he finished only fourth in the Irish Gold Cup last year before winning at Cheltenham.
More importantly, Minella Indo is a Cheltenham horse. In three runs there, Barry Maloney’s horse has won an Albert Bartlett Hurdle and a Gold Cup, and he has finished second in an RSA Chase. There is something about the place that plays to his strengths: up and down hills and stamina-sapping. And he was unlucky too not to win that RSA Chase, he and Allaho got racing against each other from a long way out, and they were both mugged on the run-in by Champ.
And he is a spring horse. His record in March, April and May reads 131121.
History tells us that it is not easy to win two Gold Cups in a row. Best Mate was the only back-to-back Gold Cup winner between L’Escargot in 1970/71 and Al Boum Photo in 2019/20. But others went close. Kauto Star went close, Denman went close, Long Run went close and, ultimately, Al Boum Photo proved in 2020 that it could be done.
Galvin is a player. Gordon Elliott’s horse won the National Hunt Chase at last year’s Festival, and he battled on bravely to beat A Plus Tard in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. The extra two and a half furlongs that they have to go at Cheltenham will play to his strengths, and he deserves his position high in the market.
Al Boum Photo will be back again. Willie Mullins’ horse danced his annual dance at Tramore on New Year’s Day, he couldn’t have done much more than he did in beating three stable companions and winning the Savills Chase for the fourth time. That said, all things being equal, he is going to have to improve on last year’s performance in the Gold Cup if he is going to get past Minella Indo and A Plus Tard, and it is difficult to see how he is going to do that.
A dual Gold Cup winner, his place in racing history is secure, but he is 10 now, and still no 10-year-old has won the Gold Cup since Cool Dawn won it in 1998.
King George winner Tornado Flyer and Irish Gold Cup winner Conflated both have to prove their stamina for an extended three and a quarter miles at Cheltenham. Last year’s Marsh Chase winner Chantry House is going to have to step forward considerably on the performance that he put up in winning the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham last month, and Royal Pagaille is going to have to improve on the performance that he put up in finishing sixth in the Gold Cup last year. If the Gold Cup was run on heavy ground at Haydock, Venetia Williams’ horse would be significantly shorter in the market than he is.
Best of the British may be Protektorat. Dan Skelton’s horse skipped Cheltenham in March last year, going to Aintree in April instead and winning the Grade 1 Manifesto Chase over two and a half miles. He proved his stamina last time, however, when he ran out an impressive winner of the Many Clouds Chase at Aintree over three miles and a furlong on soft ground, and that was despite racing more keenly than ideal through the early stages of the race.
And we know that he can operate at Cheltenham. He won there as a novice hurdler and as a novice chaser, and he put up a big performance in the Paddy Power Gold Cup there in November, staying on well to get to within three parts of a length of the winner Midnight Shadow over two and a half miles, leaving the impression that he could improve for a step up in trip.
A seven-year-old who has raced just seven times over fences, he has plenty of scope for progression as a staying chaser, and his trainer has kept him fresh for the Gold Cup, set to take him straight there without a run since he won the Many Clouds Chase in early December.
He is another player in a fascinating contest, but it is a contest in which Minella Indo sets the standard. The title holder, his chance may be under-rated by his current odds.