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The Ireland XI before facing Wales on Tuesday night. Ryan Byrne/INPHO
WNT

Explainer: Best and worst case scenarios as Ireland set to learn Euro 2025 fate

The draw takes place in Nyon on Tuesday afternoon.

THE REPUBLIC OF Ireland will learn their Uefa Women’s Euro 2025 qualifying fate on Tuesday.

The draw takes place at Uefa HQ, Nyon at 12pm Irish time.

Eileen Gleeson’s side are in League A for the new-look qualifiers, having achieved promotion in the 2023 Nations League, and due to the competitions now being aligned.

After a 100% record in League B through the autumn, Ireland suffered their first defeat under Gleeson on Tuesday night. A 2-0 friendly loss to Wales in front of a record crowd at Tallaght Stadium ended the team’s eight-game unbeaten run, stretching back to last summer’s World Cup. It came after an impressive 0-0 draw away to Italy last Friday.

Katie McCabe described it as a “little bump in the road”. Injuries, tactical changes and fatigue perhaps told, but the timing was far from ideal as Ireland gear up to face Europe’s elite throughout a huge 2024 campaign.

Tuesday’s draw will be a defining moment to shape the rest of the year.

Here, The 42 looks at what lies ahead.

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Who can Ireland draw?

Gleeson’s side are in Pot 4, with European heavyweights aplenty in the 16-team League A.

The League A Nations League group winners are in Pot 1, with the runners-up in Pot 2. Pot 3 is full of play-off winners, while Ireland are among the League B group winners in Pot 4.

eileen-gleeson Ireland WNT head coach Eileen Gleeson. Ryan Byrne / INPHO Ryan Byrne / INPHO / INPHO

The Girls In Green could indeed be pitted against the top three from last summer’s World Cup: Spain, England and Sweden.

You can look through the pots, and the team’s rankings, below:

Pot 1 

  • Netherlands (7)
  • France (3)
  • Germany (6)
  • Spain (1)

Pot 2 

  • England (4)
  • Austria (17)
  • Denmark (13)
  • Italy (14)

Pot 3

  • Belgium (18)
  • Norway (16)
  • Iceland (15)
  • Sweden (5)

Pot 4 

  • Ireland (24)
  • Finland (27)
  • Poland (29)
  • Czech Republic (28) 

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How does qualification work?

The qualifiers run from April to December 2024, and determine the 15 teams joining hosts Switzerland at Euro 2025 next July.

Every team will play each other at home and away in their respective groups across April, June and July.

The top two teams in League A qualify directly for next summer’s tournament. The remaining seven spots are decided by two rounds of play-offs in October and November/December.

Third- and fourth-placed teams in League A play the five group winners and three best-ranked runners up in League C over two legs in October. The eight winners progress to the second round to likely face a League B team — or one another, depending on seedings — also over two legs in late November/early December. The seven winners qualify for Euro 2025.

Just like the Nations League, promotion and relegation is also at stake. In terms of how Ireland could be impacted, the League A winners, runners-up and third-placed teams stay in League A, while the fourth-placed team is relegated to League B.

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When and where will the games take place?

a-general-view-of-the-aviva-ahead-of-the-game A return to the Aviva Stadium is on the cards. Ryan Byrne / INPHO Ryan Byrne / INPHO / INPHO

There will be three double-headers from April to July. Dates are listed below, with fixture details to be finalised after the draw.

At least one of Ireland’s glamour home games should be staged at the Aviva Stadium, pitch schedule and other factors dependent. Gleeson’s side played at Lansdowne Road for the first time last September, and the FAI have assured they are set for a return in 2024 but may alternate between the Aviva and Tallaght Stadium.

They could play at some major venues elsewhere. England, for example, regularly line out at Wembley Stadium.

The play-off draw is in July, with fixtures slated in for October and November/December. The Euro 2025 finals draw takes place the week before Christmas with the tournament in July 2025 across eight cities in Switzerland.

The full Euro 2025 calendar:

  • Qualifying draw: 5 March 2024
  • Qualifying matchdays 1 & 2: 3–9 April 2024
  • Qualifying matchdays 3 & 4: 29 May–4 June 2024
  • Qualifying matchdays 5 & 6: 10–16 July 2024
  • Play-off draw: 19 July 2024
  • Play-off round 1 (2 legs): 23–29 October 2024
  • Play-off round 2 (2 legs): 27 November–3 December 2024
  • Finals draw: 16 December 2024
  • Finals: 2–27 July 2025 (Switzerland)

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What’s best and worst case scenario for Ireland?

The prospect of drawing the World Cup top three – Spain, England and Sweden — is frightening, to say the least. 

Spain certainly jump out of Pot 1, the world champions having added the inaugural Women’s Nations League trophy to their growing list of honours during the week. They beat France 2-0, while elsewhere, Germany overcame a weakened Netherlands outfit in the third-place play-off to qualify for the Olympic Games.

Ireland have played France, Germany and the Netherlands in recent times. Les Bleus powered to a 3-0 win in a World Cup warm-up in Tallaght last July, while Germany were 3-0 and 3-1 winners in Euro qualifying action in 2020. The Girls In Green earned a famous 0-0 draw away to Netherlands in November 2017 as they shut the reigning European champions out, but the return leg ended in a 2-0 defeat. All four Pot 1 teams are daunting, but Germany have shown weaknesses of late, rocked by their premature World Cup exit. The Dutch have been similarly inconsistent.

In Pot 2, European champions England are the standout team. The Lionesses stuttered in the Nations League but opened the year by hammering Austria (7-2) and Italy (5-1). On paper, they are worth avoiding, but just imagine showdowns in the Aviva and Wembley…

algeciras-spain-27th-feb-2024-algeciras-spain-february-27th-2024-sofia-cantore-7-italy-and-alex-greenwood-6-england-battle-for-the-ball-duel-during-the-womens-international-friendly-footb England's Alex Greenwood and Sofia Cantore of Italy battle for the ball in their recent friendly. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Sweden are the highest-ranked team in Pot 3, and significantly so. They dethroned USA at the World Cup en route to finishing third, but Ireland did hold their own against them in the qualifying stages. They fell to a narrow 1-0 defeat at home, before holding the Swedes to a 1-1 draw in Gothenburg. Belgium have been on an upward trajectory of late, so it may be best to steer clear of them too.

That said, there is no easy draw.

Best possible draw: Germany, Austria/Denmark, Iceland.

Worst possible draw: Spain, England, Sweden/Belgium.

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Who do Ireland want?

As expected, a lot of external talk has been around the prospect of drawing England, like the men’s team. Katie McCabe and co. have sidestepped easy headlines in recent weeks.

“Could get England, Spain, France… we could get them all,” the captain said. “What will be will be. I’m not fixated on any countries in particular, only focused on us. It will be interesting to see who we get but there’ll be no England-Ireland narrative. Sorry!”

Gleeson and her players shared excitement to learn their fate, with Aoife Mannion wishing for “teams like England and Spain, who were right at the top at the end of the World Cup”.

“These are all incredible teams, and we would like to test ourselves against the best,” the English-born defender added, with Ruesha Littlejohn echoing her words.

“They’re all very difficult, they’re all top quality but if we want to get there, we need to play the best and get something out of it.”

It will all become clearer after Tuesday’s draw.

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