EVERY FRIDAY, FOOTBALL writer John Brewin – who has clocked up countless air miles covering the European game over the past decade – looks ahead to five key fixtures from the Premier League and around the continent.
As well as explaining why you need to know about these matches, he’ll also pick out a tip for each one along with the latest William Hill prices.
Here, he previews the meeting of Germany’s top two and an important fixture in La Liga’s title race, while Jose Mourinho faces his old club.
Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich, Bundesliga – 5.30pm Saturday
Der Klassiker rolls around once more. There is a distinct hope that Dortmund can win this one and take the lead in the Bundesliga from Bayern Munich, who have become something of a crisis club.
Covid-19 has taken its toll on Bayern, both in terms of Julian Nagelsmann being able to put out his best team after an outbreak and the political situation at the club.
The statisticians will tell you that Joshua Kimmich is vital to Bayern, but he is out after testing positive for Covid, and as he is a vaccine refusenik, will not be paid until he can test negative.
Meanwhile, since his debut for Bayern in 2015, they have win rate of 78%. Without Kimmich over this time, Bayern have a reduced win rate of 64% and score 0.5 fewer goals on average too.
During his absence have Bayern lost to Augsburg, but were no great shakes in beating Dynamo Kyiv and Arminia Bielefeld. Nagelsmann doesn’t have a player in his squad who can offer Kimmich’s solidity in midfield in screening the defence or the zest he can add to the attack.
And there is another obvious factor to offer hope to Dortmund, the return of Erling Haaland, miraculously so from a hip injury expected to keep him out until next year.
Last week, in the 3-1 defeat of Wolfsburg, he came in the 73rd minute and had scored by the 80th. And Donyell Malen, after waiting so long, has started knocking them in at last.
With Dortmund’s best form of defence coming in attack — their backline remains porous — and Kimmich absent, something of a goalfest may be in store. Dortmund may hope to win by the odd goal.
Not least because Robert Lewandowksi has something to prove after losing out, and somewhat controversially to a Latino bloc vote for Lionel Messi, at Monday’s Ballon D’Or.
One of the arguments against Lewandowski winning the award is that Bayern have claimed nine consecutive titles and have it all too easy in their domestic league. It might be forgotten that the last team to win the Bundesliga, Dortmund in 2012, also featured Lewandowski as its leading man.
For the record, Haaland has scored four goals in five matches against Bayern, while Lewandowski’s record is an incredible 24 in 24 matches against Dortmund.
John’s bet: Dortmund to win and Lewandowski to score anytime @ 13/2
Real Sociedad v Real Madrid, La Liga – 8pm Saturday
The stattos will tell you that Madrid are playing well above their expected goals tally. The reason for this is the stellar form of Karim Benzema, whose goal on Wednesday was enough to beat Bilbao and retain the clear leadership of La Liga.
La Real, meanwhile, briefly looked like they could stage a challenge for their first league title for 40 years but now instead compete to take the top-four vacancy that Barcelona’s recent struggles have opened up.
They have slipped of late, losing 1-0 at Espanyol, losing to Monaco in the Europa League and drawing 0-0 with Valencia before that. That makes them look like the next victims for rampant Real Madrid.
John’s bet: Real Madrid to win @ 6/5
Roma v Inter Milan, Serie A – 5pm Saturday
Roma’s midweek defeat to Bologna darkened Jose Mourinho’s mood. Now he has to face his old club, where he is still so fondly recalled for delivering the treble of 2009-10, without both the suspended Tammy Abraham and after losing Felix Afena-Gyan to Covid.
Afena-Gyan was the young man bought a pair of shoes by Mourinho for scoring his first goals. Gonzalo Villar and Bryan Cristante have also tested positive in recent days.
After leaders Napoli’s surprise draw with Sassuolo, Inter are on the tail of Luciano Spalletti’s team and second-placed Milan, and have won their last three — each by a 2-0 scoreline.
Simone Inzaghi has turned around the Nerazzurri, and they now seem likely to play a role in a title race that Roma look short of being part of.
John’s bet: Inter Milan to win and both teams to score @ 5/2
Lens v Paris Saint-Germain, Ligue 1 – 8pm Saturday
No Neymar, no party for PSG at the moment. In Wednesday’s dour draw with Nice, Lionel Messi did little to show he is worth either his latest, seventh Ballon D’Or, or the vast gamble his new club have taken on him.
So far, he has been a pale imitation of even his latter days at Barcelona, and scored just one Ligue 1 goal.
Lens are the type of opponent Messi should find life easy against but then again, so were Nice. PSG are cruising to the title but all is not well.
Neymar’s ankle injury and exile in Doha, where he is rehabbing, ought to give Messi centre stage but so far there have been few signs of a revival in his nouveau setting.
John’s bet: PSG to win and both teams to score @ 2/1
West Ham v Chelsea, Premier League – 12.30pm Saturday
Chelsea rather got out of jail at Watford on Wednesday, but grinding out wins is a time-honoured route to winning the league, as opposed to the free-flowing pyrotechnics that both Liverpool and Manchester City have displayed of late.
West Ham, meanwhile, have stalled a tad, and a late equaliser by Neal Maupay for Brighton further endangered their place in the top four.
Where Thomas Tuchel can rotate his squad, David Moyes cannot, and matches come thick and fast. It would not be a surprise to see Chelsea win by the same 1-0 margin as last season when Timo Werner, of all people, got the winner.
John’s bet: Chelsea to keep a clean sheet @ 5/4
William Hill odds above correct at the time of writing. New online customers get €30 in free bets when they bet €10 with William Hill. Just use the promo code H30. For all the latest prices, visit williamhill.com. 18+, always gamble responsibly. For more information, see gamblingtherapy.org
