THE RECENT loss to Greece means Ireland can no longer mathematically qualify from their group for Euro 2024.
However, there is still a slim chance Stephen Kenny’s side will be competing in the playoffs in March.
This scenario is extremely unlikely but still possible as it stands.
To reiterate the situation, only 20 of the 23 teams on the plane to Germany will be confirmed once the group stages are complete (the Germans as hosts obviously qualify automatically as the 24th team).
12 teams will subsequently compete for the additional three spots.
These playoffs will essentially comprise three four-team mini-tournaments encompassing a one-off semi-final and final.
The group winners of Nations Leagues A, B and C will automatically qualify for the playoffs if they fail to qualify directly.
So, for example, in Ireland’s group, if France and Netherlands finish first and second as is now looking very likely following the latter’s last-gasp 1-0 win last night, Greece will be guaranteed a playoff spot regardless of which of the bottom three places they occupy, given that they previously finished top of Nations League group C2.
So essentially, now that their hopes of automatic progression are over, Ireland need to hope as many of the higher-ranked Nations League teams can qualify as possible.
As it stands, Ireland are 26th in the Nations League rankings.
You can view the rankings in full here.
The more teams that are ranked below Ireland qualify automatically, the less chance the Boys in Green have of making the playoffs.
As it stands, eight teams have guaranteed their place at Euro 2024: France, Spain, Scotland, Turkey, Belgium, Austria, Portugal and hosts Germany.
Turkey are the only one of these teams ranked below Ireland.
So that’s eight of the 24 spots taken.
In addition, there are 10 teams assured of a playoff spot if they don’t qualify automatically: Croatia, Italy, Netherlands, Denmark, Israel, Serbia, Finland, Greece, Kazakhstan and Luxembourg.
At the moment, it looks like Italy, Netherlands, Denmark and Serbia will qualify automatically.
So if it stays that way, six of the 12 playoff places will instantly be taken up.
There are also two other Nations League winners who can no longer qualify automatically and are consequently guaranteed a playoff spot. They are: Bosnia and Georgia.
The other four spots (assuming things stay as they are) will depend on the sides’ Nations League ranking.
As it stands, the remaining spots would go to: Poland (11th), Ukraine (22nd), Iceland (23rd) and Norway (24th).
Slovenia (25th) look likely to qualify automatically, as they top their group, so Ireland probably at least won’t have to worry about them.
Group J is consequently an important group for Ireland. They essentially need Iceland to qualify ahead of Slovakia, but at the moment, that is looking very unlikely, as with two games to go, Iceland trail Slovakia by six points.
In the other groups, Norway can no longer qualify automatically, Ukraine’s chances of progression look slim and Poland are also on the verge of missing out — Albania (27th) hold a three-point lead over the latter in Group E and have a game in hand, so appear set to qualify.
Ireland would also be aided by Israel (17th) finishing ahead of Romania (29th), but that outcome appears similarly improbable, with the former currently trailing the latter by five points.
There had been discussion that Ireland losing to the Netherlands next month would actually help their chances of getting a playoff, however, that talk now appears to be redundant.
The Dutch team’s late winner against Greece means they just need to beat Gibraltar to secure qualification, so the result in the Ireland match is likely to be virtually irrelevant to the bigger picture.
All of which is a long way of saying Ireland’s hopes of qualifying for Euro 2024 are all but over.
It would take a set of results so unlikely that is nearly impossible to conceive.
Kenny might as well experiment in the upcoming November games against the Netherlands and New Zealand, as from an Irish perspective, they are about as insignificant as international football can get nowadays.
N.B. A version of this piece originally appeared on the site on 10 October 2022.