AND THEN THERE were 38.
With five players released from Ireland camp, Andy Farrell has reduced the options for the make-up of his final 33-man World Cup squad. He has added one new face in the form of loosehead prop Jeremy Loughman, but Farrell has begun the process of whittling his group down.
Ireland will wait until Monday 28 August to publicly announce their official World Cup squad, which is two days after their last warm-up game against Samoa in Bayonne.
So where are the final cuts likely to come?
Ireland currently have four hookers in their training group but don’t need all of them at the World Cup. Dan Sheehan, Rónan Kelleher, and Rob Herring are favourites to travel to France as the three hookers, even though 22-year-old Tom Stewart made a positive impression when he debuted off the bench against Italy two weekends ago.
Stewart has pushed Herring for the starting spot in Ulster but the latter has major credit in the bank with Ireland and had another strong game against the Italians. Kelleher has had frustrating injury issues but has 21 caps and was first-choice hooker until Sheehan went to another level. Stewart seems most likely to miss out.
Farrell won’t bring four loosehead props either and it appears that Loughman is vying with Munster team-mate Dave Kilcoyne for the third spot alongside Andrew Porter and Cian Healy.
Kilcoyne started against Italy, scoring a try, and had a good 2023 Six Nations with Ireland. He has picked up an unspecified knock, though, meaning a call-up for Loughman, who has been ahead of Kilcoyne as Munster’s first-choice loosehead.
Loughman has done well in Ireland camps in the past and is suited to how they play. He could get an opportunity off the bench against England this weekend, but Kilcoyne’s experience and powerful ball-carrying are tough to ignore. He was also the one Ireland picked originally.
If Ireland go with a 19/14 split of forwards and backs, that would mean all the current back-five forwards will travel to the World Cup.
So if Ireland go with three looseheads, three hookers, and three tightheads – as expected – and opt for 19 forwards in total, then James Ryan, Tadhg Beirne, Iain Henderson, Joe McCarthy, Ryan Baird, Jack Conan, Caelan Doris, Peter O’Mahony, Josh van der Flier, and Cian Prendergast will all be included.
However, if Ireland decide to go for an 18/15 split, as other nations have done, then it seems the relatively inexperienced Prendergast and McCarthy are most in danger.
In the case of an 18/15 split, and given Baird’s ability to play at lock and blindside flanker, it might be that Ireland opt for McCarthy’s powerful profile to complement their established trio of second rows, meaning Prendergast would be edged out. But the fact that Prendergast is in line to feature against England this Saturday underlines how firmly he’s in Farrell’s thoughts. Prendergast will be hoping Ireland go with 19 forwards.
The decision around 19/14 or 18/15 also has big implications in the backs.
It’s probable that Ireland will bring the established three scrum-halves and three out-halves left in their squad, so it’s more likely that there will be nerves among some of the midfield and back three options, including the versatile Ciarán Frawley.
There are currently 17 backs in Ireland’s training squad so Farrell will be cutting either two or three of them depending on the final split of his squad.
Those considered to be truly vying for the final spots are Frawley, Stuart McCloskey, Keith Earls, and Jacob Stockdale.
McCloskey’s inclusion depends on whether Farrell believes he needs a fourth midfielder. The Ulster man only plays at inside centre, where stalwarts Robbie Henshaw and Bundee Aki have been preferred when fully fit and when Garry Ringrose is at 13.
Aki and Henshaw might be enough for Farrell at 12, while Henshaw and the versatile Jimmy O’Brien cover 13. That said, the midfield slots have proven to be attritional in recent years and Farrell has sometimes picked a centre as his number 23, so he might want an extra body in this department.
Even though they’re different wings, Earls and Stockdale are seen as being in direct competition for a place in the final squad. Earls predominantly plays on the right wing but can shift to the left. Stockdale is a left wing but has played at fullback in the past.
It is even possible that both of them miss out given that O’Brien can play on both wings and Ringrose has provided wing cover on occasion. Still, that would leave the Irish squad looking light on true wings. O’Brien is also second-choice fullback behind Hugo Keenan. Earls is set to win his 100th cap off the bench this weekend and will hope for a decent stint on the pitch after a mixed display against Italy.
Frawley is a wildcard. He has been getting training reps at 10, 12, 13, and 15 over the course of pre-season with Ireland. Perhaps that’s a worrying sign if he can’t nail down one slot, but he got 40 minutes off the bench at out-half against Italy. The Ireland coaches are clearly big fans and Frawley was well up the pecking order at number 10 before an unfortunate injury last autumn. His versatility would be useful for training and squad rotation at the World Cup.
As ever, the threat of injury also looms with two warm-up games left. So even though Farrell has reduced his squad from 42 to 38, there are still a few big calls to be confirmed when he names his final 33-man selection. These are tense times for those on the precipice.
