Team shape
SINCE THE ARRIVAL of Gus Poyet as manager in February of last year, Greece have stuck almost exclusively to a 4-3-3 shape. The only real question is whether he chooses to play with one sitting midfielder and two box to box players in front or two sitting midfielders with a ‘10’ in front.
In truth, the difference is likely to be marginal as regardless of which way he goes we are likely to see Manolis Siopas (Trabzonspor) or Dimitrios Kourbelis (Panathinaikos) sitting deep, Anastasios Bakasetas (Trabzonspor) playing as the highest of the three, while Petros Mantalos (AEK Athens) will shuttle between the two.
Style of play
Poyet’s side is a possession-based team. They averaged 540 passes per game with an 88% pass accuracy and just over 60% of the ball during their Nations League campaign.
Stephen Kenny’s team by comparison averaged 444 passes, with an 85% pass accuracy and 49% possession.
Given Greece are also the home side, they are highly likely to be in control of the ball for the majority of the game with Ireland looking to pick their moments to spring counter attacks.
Flying full-backs
Regardless of the personnel, the wide attackers in the front three are likely to play narrow for Greece.
Dimitrios Pelkas (Hull City), if selected, will wander in field and try to pick up balls in central positions, while the other attacking options, Georgios Masouras (Olympiacos) and Dimitrios Limnios (FC Koln), may look for possession in wider areas. They will then look to make driving runs inside when on the ball.
All of this creates a situation where the attacking width then must be provided by the full-backs. Thankfully, for Greece, they have the ideal outlets in George Baldock (Sheffield United) and Konstantinos Tsimikas (Liverpool).
Baldock is a regular wing back in Sheffield United’s successful 3-4-3 system where he continually makes surging runs down their right flank. Tsimikas may be used more sparingly at Liverpool but when on the field he too has bombed forward, providing four assists in their league campaign last season.
Both players replicated those attacking roles in last year’s Nations League campaign. Tsimikas topped his team’s stats for both crosses (26) and dribbles (32). Baldock came second in both categories with 21 and 16.
To put those numbers into context, James McClean finished Ireland’s equivalent campaign with the most crosses (18) while attackers Callum Robinson and Michael Obafemi attempted the most dribbles (14).
Attacking midfield threat
Vangelis Pavlidis (AZ Alkmaar) is likely to get the nod at centre-forward. His goal-scoring record at club level this season has been impressive, with 12 goals in 25 appearances. At international level, though, has been less potent, with six in his 29 appearances to date.
Ominously for Ireland, the biggest attacking threat may in fact come from the long-range shooting threat of attacking midfielder and captain Bakasetas.
Conceding goals from distance has been an Achilles heel for Stephen Kenny’s team and in Bakasetas they are up against a player who will certainly look to continue the trend.
At look at the three goals he scored in the Nations League illustrates the threat provided by his clever movement and shooting prowess.
Here, in their opening game away to Northern Ireland, Greece break down the right. Steven Davis is the closest player to Bakasetas when the attack begins but he gets sucked across to the left because of the aforementioned threat provided by the full-back runs.
Bakasetas is clever enough to linger in the space behind him, picking up the ball and driving it low into the bottom left corner.
Three days later, away to Kosovo, he repeated the trick.
This time the build comes down the left but again features an attacking run by a full-back.
As Tsimikas plays a pass inside to Mantalos, Bakasetas makes the decision to check his run and pull back outside the box, brilliantly buying himself the time and space to get a shot away, that finds the bottom right corner this time.
Bakasetas’ third goal came at home to Cyprus in September.
Again, it started with some attacking brilliance from Tsimikas. Faced by two defenders, he looks as though he is pinned to the sideline. But a drop of the shoulder and nutmeg later and he is dinking a cross into the box from the end line.
As the ball is delivered, we can already see Bakasetas loitering on the edge of the box with intent. The cross is headed clear but as it drops, he meets it on the volley and the shot fizzes through a crowd of bodies and past the keeper.
Right foot. Left foot. Left foot. Same result every time.
Josh Cullen has probably been Ireland’s standout player over the past year and he will be the one primarily tasked with keeping an eye on Bakasetas. Yet as we can see from the above examples, it is going to take a group effort to keep him off the scoresheet.
Conclusion
There seems to be a general sense among the Irish public that this is a game Kenny’s side should be well capable of winning.
This possibly stems from the fact that Greece were playing a division below us in the Nations League, or perhaps from a general perception that they haven’t been up to much since their shock win at the 2004 Euros.
But this stark tweet from the brilliant Irish Abroad twitter account shows just how long it has been since Ireland have produced a significant away win in a European Championship qualifier.
5️⃣2️⃣ Greece are ranked 52nd in the world by FIFA, a win on Friday for @IrelandFootball would mean beating the highest ranked side in an away European Championship qualifier since a 4-0 win against Northern Ireland, then ranked 39th, in Windsor Park in November 1994#COYBIG https://t.co/MZ9YULhW2B
— Irish Abroad (@irish_abroad) June 14, 2023
Ireland will have to produce their best ninety-minute plus stoppage time performance yet under Kenny if they are to end the almost 30 year wait for that win.
They undoubtedly showed signs of further improvement in an impressive performance in their opener against France, but to be expectant of a win away to a reasonably impressive looking Greek side is maybe a touch optimistic.