THOSE OF US who remember Ireland losing to Namibia, Samoa and Italy, who remember the 59-6 hammering in this city back in 1992, the 63-15 humiliation in 1997, the 40-plus scores the All Blacks put on Irish sides in 1995, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2010, 2012 (twice) and 2019, are still struggling to get our heads around the fact that tomorrow in Wellington, Andy Farrell’s team are hoping to write their names into Irish rugby folklore.
Just as startling is the fact that a few locals don’t just expect Ireland to win this series but hope they do.
Partly that’s because they want to see a change in regime – believing Scott Robertson can revive the All Blacks in a way that incumbent coach, Ian Foster, cannot. Partly it’s because Irish tourists are welcome down here, especially after New Zealand’s borders were shut for a couple of years because of Covid.
Not everyone is so keen on an away victory, though. One former All Black, Murray Mexted, was on television this morning saying a New Zealand team should not be losing to an Irish one. Well, it has happened four times out of seven now. We’ve reached the stage where we can call this fixture a rivalry rather than just a slot in the All Blacks calendar.
It is worth reminding everyone that if Ireland win this Test, they will become the first touring side to win a series here since 1994 and just the sixth to do so at all – after the Australians of 1949 and 1986, the South Africans of 1937, the 1971 British and Irish Lions and the French side of the 90s.
It was Brian O’Driscoll who said a series win here would surpass a Grand Slam in terms of status; it’s hard to disagree.
“For us, it’s just a chance to do something very special,” said Ireland captain, Johnny Sexton yesterday. “I suppose we have created a little bit of history by winning a test and now we want to just put out our best performance and see where that gets us.
“Something like this doesn’t come along too often. It’s a very special week and you’ve got to embrace it, especially when you get to my age and you know that there are not too many left. This is the last tour and you want to make the most of it.
“We know how difficult it’s going to be. They are a top quality side. They didn’t play their best last week and I’m sure they will have plans for their performance to improve and we need to find the same.”
The worry for Ireland will be when the first scrum is called and Andrew Porter goes up against Nepo Laulala, not because Laulala is regarded as one of the best in the world, more because we wonder how referee Wayne Barnes will see things.
Considered one of the best refs in the world, Barnes’ interpretation of events will be key tomorrow. Will he stand strong if heckles come from the crowd? A few boos have never stopped him making tough decisions before.
He needs to do so again for while Ireland have won four of the last seven, they’ve also suffered serious hammerings in the subsequent games straight after those wins, New Zealand winning the revenge ties by an average of 23 points.
Each time they successfully bullied Ireland, played on the edge, testing the limits of the referee’s patience. That’s why Barnes has such a big role to play. A week ago, Ireland had a numerical advantage for 53 of the game’s 80 minutes. In those circumstances, it’s easy to look good.
“This is the game that we all want; it’s the chance of a lifetime, a massive occasion that we want to be able to deal with,” said Ireland coach, Andy Farrell.
“It doesn’t get any tougher than this, New Zealand at their best after a defeat. It’s where we want to be, the series on the line. It’s exactly where we want to be.”
Where they really want to be at 9pm local time tomorrow night is in the history books. Asked if winning a series here equates to a grand slam, he paused before answering.
“I think it’s out there in its own right. It’s like gold dust, isn’t it? A deciding game in New Zealand with a sniff at winning a series. I suppose the biggest thing we can say about that is it probably will never get done again by an Irish side given what we know is probably going to happen in the future. So if that’s not big enough in its own right, I don’t know what is.”
It’s rare enough when moments like this arrive in the rugby calendar in between World Cups, where both participants are involved in what essentially is knock-out rugby.
Just over a third of the match-day 23 got a taste of what it was like four years ago when Ireland defeated Australia in Sydney. There was the 2019 game in Cardiff, where Ireland were going for a title, Wales for a grand slam. Otherwise do-or-die fixtures have tended to be confined for World Cups.
“We are making sure that everyone realises: this is it,” Farrell said. “We said before departure that this is the start of our World Cup journey.
“You can class last Saturday as the quarter-final that may happen against New Zealand — if we’re good enough to get through to those stages — or as a semi-final or a final. But I don’t think it’s any of them really at this stage.”
Farrell’s confidence is understandable. He has had a settled team throughout this series whereas the All Blacks have had to chop and change, Laulala coming in for Tu’ungafasi in the front row, Sam Whitelock returning at second row — necessitating a switch to flanker for Scott Barrett; David Havili taking Quinn Tupaea’s place at 12; Will Jordan replacing Leicester Fainga’anuku, Sevu Reece going to the opposite wing. It is the best they have looked all series.
“Before World Cup finals or Grand Slam deciders, you hear people say ‘It’s just another game’ but it’s not,” Sexton said. “No one feels like it’s just another game.”
It is far from that. Ireland have the chance to do something out of the ordinary here. If they manage it, it’ll be their greatest win yet.
All Blacks
Jordie Barrett; Will Jordan, Rieko Ioane, David Havili, Sevu Reece; Beauden Barrett, Aaron Smith; George Bower, Codie Taylor, Nepo Laulala, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Scott Barrett, Sam Cane Ardie Savea.
Replacements Dane Coles, Aidan Ross, Ofa Tu’ungafasi, Akira Ioane, Dalton Papali’i, Folau Fakatava, Richie Mo’unga, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck.
Ireland
Hugo Keenan; Mack Hansen, Robbie Henshaw, Bundee Aki, James Lowe; Johnny Sexton, Jamison Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong, Tadhg Beirne, James Ryan, Peter O’Mahony, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris.
Replacements Rob Herring, Cian Healy, Finlay Bealham, Kieran Treadwell, Jack Conan, Conor Murray, Joey Carbery, Keith Earls.
Referee W Barnes (RFU).