IT’S NO GREAT shock to see it this morning but it’s still a little strange to be confronted with it: Ireland are the favourites for a World Cup quarter-final against New Zealand. Narrowly, on a two-point margin in most quarters, but favourites all the same.
The history of these two nations at the Rugby World Cup is what makes it so unusual. New Zealand are the three-time winners. Ireland have never been past the quarter-finals. The last time around in 2019, it was the Kiwis who hammered the Irish at that stage.
While New Zealand have a few tales of World Cup woe of their own, Irish fans have become accustomed to this competition delivering disappointment.
Overcoming this burden of history always seemed like one of the big challenges for Andy Farrell’s Ireland but they haven’t seemed to be weighed down by it much so far. Indeed, when you speak to the younger players who have become core members of this team – Caelan Doris, Hugo Keenan, Garry Ringrose – they don’t seem all that perturbed.
Doris even said his first proper World Cup memories are from 2015, so he’s not exactly dragging a sled full of historical doubts behind him. He and several others in this team are used to mainly winning the games they play. They’ve had tough days but this is an Irish squad with genuine confidence in their ability.
That belief has been developed under Farrell over the past two seasons especially, with performance coach Gary Keegan playing a crucial role.
One of the biggest things this squad has achieved under Farrell was last year’s series success against the All Blacks down in New Zealand. It was Ireland’s first-ever series win on Kiwi soil and it came after they had been beaten in the first Test.
That was a tough game as a flurry of Irish errors were punished in characteristic fashion by New Zealand and Farrell’s men were on the receiving end of a 42-19 defeat. He came into the changing room after the game and essentially told his players that the scoreline wasn’t reflective of the quality of the two teams. He was convinced that Ireland would win the second and third Tests. His players believed him. Farrell was right.
Stirring wins followed in Dunedin and Wellington, with Ireland framing the series decider as a practice run for a World Cup final. They deliberately added to the pressure on themselves because everything they’ve done in the past few years has been about preparing for this World Cup. Lifting the Webb Ellis Cup has always been the real goal.
That shouldn’t mean the series win in New Zealand or this year’s Grand Slam should be discounted, but Ireland themselves always had the big target in mind. Even the Slam was framed as a trial run. Can we win five games in a row with the pressure mounting on each occasion, Ireland asked themselves, knowing they’d need a similar run at the World Cup. There were shaky moments along the way, including the clincher against England in Dublin, but they came through that test too.
It helps this week that Ireland have become used to beating New Zealand. Including that famous day in Chicago in 2016 when Joe Schmidt’s side made history, Ireland have enjoyed five wins in their last eight games against the All Blacks. While there are quite a few survivors of that harrowing 2019 quarter-final defeat still in the Ireland team now, this is a different Ireland set-up. In 2019, things had already started to unravel.
The aura that once existed around the All Blacks is gone. That doesn’t mean the All Blacks aren’t still extremely dangerous. Ireland know well from that first Test how they’ll ruthlessly shred you when you err. And even that series success is misremembered at times. The second and third Tests were far from hammerings. Ireland had to deliver a huge grandstand finish in the decider to see it out as the All Blacks flooded at them.
But Ireland can justifiably feel they’re a better team than New Zealand, given everything we’ve seen from these two sides over the past two years. Up front, Ireland certainly appear to have the edge even if the Kiwi pack is experienced. And though it’s probably not remarked upon often enough anymore, Ireland have a genius driving their team in 38-year-old Johnny Sexton. His continued good form is remarkable. Around him is a cohesive, physical, smart team.
Being the better team on paper is, however, no guarantee when it comes to knock-out rugby. The challenge is being able to deliver upon your ability with that pressure on.
Red cards, the bounce of the ball, a flash of individual brilliance, one slight lapse in focus – these games can be decided by so many factors. Ireland have been on the right side of the margins more often than not in recent times but they will have to dig deep this Saturday night. It’s been a fine World Cup so far but now things go to another level.
The injury issues are obviously a big concern for Ireland early this week – with James Ryan, Mack Hansen, Robbie Henshaw, Keith Earls, and James Lowe all on that list – but Farrell knew that this wasn’t going to be smooth sailing all the way to glory.
His team have handled these challenges with composure most of the time.
While this weekend is not the end goal for Ireland, it is their biggest challenge yet. History beckons.