THE BAD NEWS has started trickling in from around the rugby world.
First, we heard that Italy had lost key man Edoardo Padovani. Then last weekend, we saw the miserable sight of Wallabies tighthead Allan Ala’alatoa being carted off during his side’s defeat to the All Blacks. It looked bad and conformation soon followed. Achilles tendon rupture. Ruled out of the World Cup.
Injuries are an unfortunate reality of rugby at all times but the cruelty of them never feels more pronounced than in the build-up to a World Cup. As players get set for what could be the highlight of their careers, the dream can be over in a flash.
Irish rugby knows all about this pain. David Wallace, Felix Jones, Geordan Murphy, and Tommy O’Donnell are among those to have been denied.
And then there’s the fact that injuries often strike during the World Cup, forcing players out of the tournament early. All of this is to say that every team needs to have a Plan B. No one is immune to feeling the pinch of injuries.
So how will Andy Farrell be thinking about his depth chart and possible danger spots?
Johnny Sexton’s importance to Ireland has been discussed ad nauseam so there’s no need to go into it in great depth here again.
Ross Byrne now has 19 Test caps and got valuable experience with five appearances during this year’s Six Nations. While Jack Crowley still only has three caps, he is seen as a coming force. With Sexton suspended, Byrne and Crowley will have chances in Ireland’s three warm-up games, which should prove beneficial. But still, Sexton staying injury-free for Ireland’s World Cup campaign appears pivotal.
The other place to focus on is fullback, where Hugo Keenan has been virtually ever-present. As we discussed last week, he has racked up more Test minutes than any other player under Andy Farrell.
The only other people to start Tests at fullback in the Farrell era are Jacob Stockdale, Jordan Larmour, Mike Lowry, and Jimmy O’Brien.
Larmour had first shot at the number 15 jersey after Rob Kearney’s retirement, starting three times in the 2020 Six Nations before Covid-19 struck. Larmour has been desperately unlucky with injuries ever since and his most recent Test was on the wing against Japan in 2021. He’s not part of the wider squad this summer.
Stockdale was next into the hotseat when rugby resumed in autumn 2020 and he had four starts at fullback before Keenan took possession of the jersey full-time for the start of the 2021 Six Nations.
Since then, Keenan has started all but two of Ireland’s games at fullback. Lowry was in superb form for Ulster when he started at 15 for Ireland against Italy during the 2022 Six Nations but that remains his only cap. Like Larmour, he’s not in the wider squad now.
O’Brien started at number 15 against Fiji in the 2022 November Tests, a maiden international campaign in which he excelled at outside centre, fullback, and on the wing.
That means O’Brien looks like the most obvious replacement for Keenan at fullback if injury strikes.
Stockdale is still in the wider squad but hasn’t had a start for Ireland or Ulster at 15 for the past two seasons. In fact, he hasn’t worn the green jersey since the summer of 2021.
Right wing Mack Hansen has played at fullback for Connacht four times in the past two seasons but hasn’t played there for Ireland.
Elsewhere in the squad, uncapped Ciarán Frawley has some history at fullback, Jack Crowley started there once for Munster last season, Jamie Osborne – another uncapped player – was a fullback for the Ireland U20s, and Robbie Henshaw started a game at number 15 for Ireland back in 2019. He didn’t enjoy that experience.
Keenan is almost indispensable for Ireland but O’Brien looks like next-in-line.
The other spot in the Ireland team that tends to get a lot of focus is the number seven shirt, where Josh van der Flier has been a mainstay. He has amassed the third-most Test minutes for Ireland under Farrell, with all of them coming in the number seven jersey.
So who has played there when van der Flier hasn’t?
Will Connors was prominent in the early Farrell years, making five starts at openside as he won nine caps in 2020 and 2021. Indeed, van der Flier has said that Connors’ outstanding form back then spurred him to work even harder on his own game.
Connors has been cruelly unlucky with injury since the 2021 Six Nations and though he returned for Leinster last season, it was too late to force his way into World Cup contention.
Ulster man Nick Timoney has started two Tests at openside for Ireland, including one against Fiji last autumn, but he’s not part of the wider training group now.
And then there’s Peter O’Mahony, the only other man in the current Ireland squad who has started in the number seven shirt under Farrell. Both of his Test starts at openside came during the 2020 Autumn Nations Cup, although he has moved into the position during other games since.
If van der Flier is injured, it seems certain that O’Mahony would move to number seven in a back row that would also include Caelan Doris and Jack Conan. While O’Mahony is clearly a different player to van der Flier, those are three high-quality back rows.
The share of jobs and duties would need to be distributed wisely to make up for the loss of van der Flier’s relentless work-rate and there’s no doubting his importance to Ireland.
Farrell resisted any temptation to bring the uncapped Leinster openside Scott Penny or Munster’s John Hodnett into his training squad this summer, so clearly Ireland feel confident in O’Mahony moving across from blindside to openside. That said, they’ll be hoping the reigning World Rugby player of the year stays fit.
The propping positions have long been a point of concern among Irish supporters but Finlay Bealham’s excellence in his first three Six Nations starts this year, as well as Tom O’Toole’s impact off the bench, have eased worries about the options behind Tadhg Furlong.
At loosehead, Andrew Porter’s importance continues to grow. While he will be aiming to improve his discipline after a frustrating Six Nations in that regard, his power and mobility have him well ahead of his competition.
35-year-old Cian Healy is a wily operator, even if he’s understandably not quite as explosive as before, while Dave Kilcoyne had an impactful involvement in the Six Nations with three substitute appearances. Still, Porter staying fit looks key.
Outside centre was a position that came in for strong focus earlier this year when Garry Ringrose was injured. Bundee Aki had the tough task of shifting to number 13 in a new-look midfield combination against Italy and that game didn’t go well in defence.
It’s worth flagging that Robbie Henshaw was also absent that day, but he returned to start at number 13 for the Grand Slam-clinching game against England after another injury for Ringrose. Henshaw is clearly next-in-line at outside centre behind Ringrose.
Indeed, during the Farrell era, Henshaw has made eight starts at number 13 and nine at number 12, meaning an almost even split of time between the two midfield positions.
O’Brien played 53 minutes at outside centre on his debut against South Africa last November, meaning he provides cover there. Keith Earls is another wider squad member who could shift to outside centre if required. Earls started a midweek game for Ireland at number 13 against the Māori All Blacks last summer.
In fairness to Farrell and Ireland, they have managed injury issues superbly in recent seasons, and their positive attitude towards setbacks has been a major strength.
Let’s not forget that they won a Grand Slam this year despite what was essentially an injury crisis. Even still, World Cups have a habit of accentuating absences and Ireland will probably need a bit of luck if they’re to make history.
