STEPHEN KENNY’S REIGN as Ireland manager has been the steady accumulation of narrow margins, on which his side have always been on the wrong side.
The penalty shootout loss to Slovakia; the heartbreaker away to Portugal; Mike Maignan’s miracle save at the death in March, the freakish series of long-range goals; the habit of conceding just after half time; the fact all but two of the 17 defeats have been by a single goal: everything has just about been close enough to madden him with hypotheticals and futile bargaining.
If only play-off preparation wasn’t sundered by a false positive Covid test; if only they could have held on against Portugal; if only Troy Parrott scores when one-on-one against Scotland; if only Ireland score first against Greece…if only, if only, if only.
Kenny has been a bit more reflective on his reign across recent weeks, and has lamented the concession of goals at key times – the second against Greece on Friday was the most obvious example – while speaking with a slightly baffled air as to how often opponents score from their very first attack.
Ascribing causes to these trends is an unsatisfactory thing to do, as it’s hard to alight on one or two tangible reasons as to why Ireland have been so ineffective in so many key moments as they have been. They have changed personnel; they have changed systems; they have changed approach. Nothing has worked.
So the questions become grander. Are the players not good enough? Is the manager and his staff not good enough? Or is it a combination of both?
Perhaps the answer is found in the received wisdom of the old pro: you’ll win nothing with kids. Has Ireland’s lack of experience the cause of their brittleness? Have they simply not had the experienced heads to react appropriately in times of adversity and pressure?
It’s the kind of thing that’s difficult to analyse, as Opta don’t have metrics for Expected Leadership. You can’t compare teams under xNous.
We can compare the average ages of squads. According to WyScout, Ireland’s average age in this Euro 2024 campaign is 25.6, which makes them the second-youngest across all of the 54 teams involved in qualifying.
No side with an average age that young have qualified for any of the last three major tournaments for which Ireland have competed.
The average age at the 2022 World Cup was 28.4, and it was 29.8 at Euro 2020.
Remarkably, no side at the 2018 World Cup had an average age below 30, with the tournament average coming to a relatively crepuscular 32.93.
Of the 88 sides who competed at these three tournaments, none of them had an average age as low as Ireland’s has been in this qualifying tournament.
These are slightly reductive comparisons that will be open to plenty of caveats and counter-points, but the broader point stands: there is no recent history of a team as young as Ireland’s being successful in qualifying for a major tournament.
Asked by The 42 whether he believes, on reflection, that it was unrealistic to have expected this Ireland side to qualify for Euro 2024, Kenny demurred slightly.
“I don’t know”, he replied. “Maybe in a group with France and Holland, it wouldn’t be easy, for sure. There’s never been a group like that.”
Kenny then veered off to talk about the increased depth in his squad, praising the performances of Mikey Johnston and Chiedozie Ogbene and making the point his squad had lacked wingers prior to their emergence.
Kenny will not publicly criticise his players – it’s an admirable trait which has brought more scrutiny on him – but last month was the first time we had ever heard him talk like a pundit would talk about his team.
Reflecting on the ruinous defeat in Athens, Kenny said, “we’ve seen it down the years when teams don’t play well away from home but you defend right and you don’t concede. The frustrating thing is that not every game is going to go according to play but we should have dug out at least a draw in the game and had the capacity to do that but didn’t.” It has been notable that Shane Duffy has been brought back in from the cold and has played every minute since then: he is a vocal, cajoling presence in an Irish team light on those kinds of figures.
The lack of available talent is why Ireland’s squad has become so young. Kenny has said the blooding of young talent has not been a “vanity project”, as, in reality, it has been the pragmatic thing to do.
The difference in the squad profile is now stark. Ireland’s average age in Euro 2020 qualifying under Mick McCarthy was 32.9, which made them the third-oldest among 55 competing nations. They are now the second-youngest: no side in Europe has been so radically overhauled.
But Kenny did not immediately infuse his team with his U21 players. As he took the job he spoke of building on a back five foundation of Randolph, Doherty, Duffy, Egan, and Stevens. He wanted to make James McCarthy the lynchpin of his midfield. But injuries, lack of gametime and the aforementioned lack of quality wingers meant he had to change his style, and for that he found younger players to be the best option. It’s hard to quibble with that judgement call.
In fact, the average age of the squad has continued to drop across Kenny’s tenure, as he accommodated the emergence of Evan Ferguson and searched everywhere for solutions to injuries along with selection and tactical problems.
The scale of Kenny’s squad building has been huge. He has given 20 players their debuts and picked a total of 52 players across 38 games, with another 11 included in squads without being capped.
(For comparison: Giovanni Trapattoni used 61 players across 64 games in charge, while Martin O’Neill capped 65 different players in his 55 games.)
A 53rd player is on his way, with Kenny saying they are close to completing the paperwork for the declaration of a winger now playing in the Championship.
The painful reality for Stephen Kenny is that if somebody is to benefit from his identification of players and his squad-building, it won’t be him.