ROLL UP AND TAKE your seat for The Schlock of Gibraltar.
Tonight Greece are where Ireland wanted to be, hosting the Netherlands and rallying their crowd to inspire them to a famous win and the cusp of automatic qualification for Euro 2024.
Instead Ireland are in the Algarve, where the last of the autumn sun has been swaddled by cloud, and are preparing to play Gibraltar in a game that can only be given meaning by an embarrassing result.
Desire and reality have proved to be two painfully distinct lands.
There is nothing to be gained here other than the absence of ignominy on the flight home. The manager’s reign was effectively – though not officially – ended when qualification hopes died with defeat to the Dutch last month, and Friday’s 2-0 loss to Greece snuffed out the last tinders that any lingering dreamers might spark a rebirth.
An era which brimmed with romantic Irish notions from its outset has all gone a bit Cormac McCarthy. Like the onset of some cold glaucoma dimming away the world….
A bleached stadium about 10% full on the edge of a Portuguese motorway feels an appropriately stark stage for which this to play out. Gibraltar’s windswept ground at the foot of the Rock is being renovated, and so they have decamped to a stadium built for Euro 2004 and hardly filled since.
Ireland cannot qualify from this group and their play-off hopes are almost dead, so their next game of consequence will be a Uefa Nations League game in 11 months time.
There is a slight and utterly absurd chance that Ireland have one meaningful game before that next Nations League campaign, but it’s not important in the way one might imagine.
The play-off format is convoluted but the TL;DR version of it is that Ireland could never afford for more than two sides ranked below them in the Nations League ladder to qualify automatically. That would mean three heavy-hitters ranked above Ireland would need recourse to the play-offs, thereby nabbing the places we so deeply coveted.
Upsets and giant-killings across qualifying are bad news for Ireland, so typically there have been loads of them. With Albania pretty much locked in to finish in the top two of their group, Ireland can only afford for one more side ranked below them to qualify.
Our dangers are Turkey in Group D; Romania in Group I; Slovakia or Luxembourg in Group J; and Greece in our own group. Were Greece to finish second then Netherlands would take a play-off spot, but were it the other way round, the lower-ranked Greeks wouldn’t be taking anything from Ireland. Given it’s better for Ireland’s own prospects that Netherlands finish ahead of Greece, this opens up the ludicrous scenario in which Ireland are incentivised to lose their final group game in Amsterdam.
“It’s not something that’s really entered our heads”, said Stephen Kenny. “If we were to play any game, we’d play to win. It’s not something that really we’d focus on.”
It’s admittedly unlikely we get to that point, but if two of the above three somehow fall our way, the prospect is open. And if that happens, you’d back Ireland to get the result they need in Amsterdam.
But tonight must be endured first. It is difficult not to have some sympathy for Kenny at the moment, as he shuffles zestlessly on, knowing the fate that will be sealed at the end of the campaign in November. His contract includes any potential play-off, but all parties are coy on whether he would actually take charge of it, were the universe to cease its years-long campaign against Kenny and suddenly conspire to vault him into a play-off.
“From my point of view I am contracted to the end of the campaign so I just want to finish strong, finish the campaign strong. If there is a playoff we can assess that”, conceded Kenny, tellingly.
Kenny’s dream job has curdled, and a return to the Estadio Algarve will be a reminder of What Might Have Been. It was here just over two years ago where Ireland led Portugal 1-0 going into the 89th minute. Two Cristiano Ronaldo headers later and we were all sent home with another hard luck story.
“You can’t dwell on things but have I reflected on it? Of course”, said Kenny. “We were one-nil ahead after 89 minutes and the game should be finished out.”
At one point toward the end of his press conference, Kenny was asked if it was still fun to be Ireland manager.
“I don’t know if that’s the right word, but certainly we have worked extremely hard behind the scenes”, he replied. “We have put in an incredible high performance environment behind the scenes now, in all areas: medical, sports science, statistical analysis… that’s on a par with anything. When the players come and speak positively, it’s not personality or loyalty to me, it’s because they know it’s an exceptional high performance environment.
“What we have fallen down on, and it’s on me as a coach, is we have let goals in in key times of matches when we’re right in the game, or else having long spells and the first chance we concede, we get punished. Other teams have just been more ruthless than us in our group.”
Gibraltar themselves may be about to get ruthless with coach Julio Ribas, who across his five-year term has stemmed many of the seven-goal hammerings but has yet to evolve beyond routine three-goal beatings. Ribas is a favourite of the Gibraltar FA’s, but fans and media are beginning to stir in favour of a more attacking young coach, Nathan Rooney, currently manager of local club side Bruno’s Magpies. Ribas is testing patience, recently declaring his tenure is only now entering the second phase of his overarching, three-phase plan. As one local journalist told us yesterday: we would rather celebrate a goal in a 7-1 loss than quietly lose 4-0.
It seems everyone tonight is gathering to watch the ticking of the clock.
Ireland (Possible XI): Bazunu; Ebosele, Duffy, O’Shea, Scales; Cullen, Browne, Smallbone; Ogbene, Ferguson, Johnston
On TV: RTE Two; KO: 7.45