Advertisement
Donall Farmer/INPHO
Preview

O'Neill's caution is his best bet on an evening of great expectations

Ireland expected to comfortably beat Gibraltar but Martin O’Neill refuses to get carried away.

ALL WEEK, MARTIN O’Neill has been the most cautious voice in the room.

When he wasn’t answering questions about Roy Keane’s new book, he was trying to manage expectations ahead of tonight’s game against Gibraltar.

Poland didn’t help his case when they put seven past Group D’s minnows last month. That set a high bar for Ireland who, historically, have rarely done these things the easy way.

Remember Liechtenstein and San Marino? Let’s not even go there.

It’s the definition of a lose-lose scenario. If Ireland are not utterly convincing in victory, they lose; if the unthinkable happens and they end up with anything less than all three points, it’s apocalypse now.

The prudent thing then is to keep the wild ambition in check while preparing for the toughest possible test. That meant focusing on the first half of last month’s game in Faro when Gibraltar held Poland to a single, deflected goal and very nearly scored themselves.

“The important thing is that you’re seeing Gibraltar at their strongest,” O’Neill said yesterday.

“Even when they went a goal behind they didn’t change their system. They had men behind the ball and they worked exceptionally hard.

They were as honest as the day as long. They conceded a number of goals towards the end when they were manfully trying to get back into the game themselves.

“I’m not so sure watching the last 10 minutes of the match is going to do us a great deal of good.”

O’Neill wouldn’t even entertain any talk of complacency. “I seriously don’t think that we’re good enough to be complacent,” he insisted. “Certainly not.”

It’s hard to truly discern at what point the manager’s caution ends and at what point he is simply working the loaded dice in front of him, trying to tilt the balance back in his favour.

But he’s been perfectly clear all week: Ireland are justifiably massive favourites and there’s no hiding from the fact that they have to deliver three points.

If they go and score five, six, seven, eight tonight — all the better.

That bit is a bit more negotiable though. At this point, it’s impossible to say whether or not goal difference will feature in the final reckoning for qualification; UEFA’s labyrinthine tie-break rules mean we’ll have to wait until the finish line is in sight before working out the combinations and permutations.

“If it eventually boils down to that, and I’m sitting here today in October 2014, and we haven’t got the requisite number of goals then we haven’t been good enough in that case.”

As per usual, O’Neill has said precious little about his gameplan and starting line-up. Richard Keogh (leg) has joined James McCarthy, Seamus Coleman and Shay Given on the injury list but everyone else is fit and available for selection.

He seemed willing to entertain a switch to 3-5-2 with attacking wing-backs when asked about the possibility yesterday, but he wouldn’t be drawn on that either

“I think we will have to be on the front foot immediately,” O’Neill said on Ireland’s intent.

Get some tempo to the game, don’t let a 10- or 15-minute period where you drift and nothing has happened.

“That’s easier said than done, of course, but that’s our aim: to go and be positive from moment one, to get into the game.”

The FAI are hoping that the Saturday early-evening kick-off will bring in a crowd of 30,000 and more, and O’Neill wants an impressive win to help bring the paying public back on side.

“The best way for us to get the crowd behind us is to go out, play well, try to score and try to win some football matches. The people will gradually come back if that’s the case.

“If they think there’s a genuine chance of you qualifying in the group, they’ll get a bit of momentum behind you.”

Danny Higginbotham: ‘Gibraltar don’t want the whipping boys tag’

Here are 10 things more statistically likely than Gibraltar beating Ireland