MAKING HISTORY IN Athens is like planting a shrub in a forest.
Stephen Kenny nonetheless wants his Ireland players to enshrine a piece of their own against Greece tonight, and earn a “historic away win” to put Ireland into genuine contention to qualify for the European Championships from a daunting group.
But hey, as an Irish poet who was no stranger to Athenian legend has told us, Gods make their own importance.
And Kenny has been showing his players clips of games whose history wasn’t immediately obvious; those under-heralded away wins against the likes of Malta, Armenia, and Georgia which have backboned the successful campaigns of the past.
A game the manager wants to pass into lore is one freighted with a curious kind of pressure. Take a close look at it and our record away to group’s fourth seeds – three wins in the last eight attempts – and you’d quickly swallow our animating creed. A point away from home? We’ll take it and move on.
Step back, however, and the old verities ain’t what they used to be.
This is a clash between sides of the same level: Greece have recently embraced a more possession-based approach and have mixed good results against top sides – a draw against Spain – with fitful performances against minnows – draws with Lithuania and Malta. That might sound familiar.
Plus, Greece are only three places below Ireland in the Fifa world rankings, a narrow margin largely negated by the conditions. (The atmosphere won’t be particularly in Greece’s favour, though, with a small crowd of around 10,000 people expected in a shiny new stadium. Gus Poyet has spent all of his interviews urging fans to buy tickets, but many have been put off by the €40 cost.)
Broaden the context and our trademark draw may not cut it.
If Ireland harbour hopes of splitting France and the Netherlands in this group, then they need to be armed with as many points from elsewhere as possible.
Greece manager Poyet spoke plainly about the stakes. “The reality for both of us is if we don’t win tomorrow it’s going to be very difficult to be able to finish second. I think it’s a must-win for both of us. “
Kenny was more circumspect in response to the same question.
“It’s only the second game in the group”, he said, “I don’t think anything is decided so early.”
A win might also be necessary for Kenny himself. Much of the speculation about his position has been empty noise but there is a sense among some senior figures at Abbottstown that he now has to deliver on what the FAI have backed him to do. Kenny asked for a four-day camp in Bristol and then a pricey 10-day training camp in Antalya to prepare for this game and was given it. In exchange came an expectation from his bosses that there are no excuses for a failure to perform.
This isn’t to suggest that a draw tonight would automatically jeopardise Kenny’s position – that can’t be predicted without knowing what has happened – but there is a determinative sense to this game; a gathering air of now or never.
The lengthy build-up to today was informed by last year’s performance away to Armenia in the Nations League, as Ireland froze beneath a pitiless sun. Kenny’s ambition was to win that Nations League group, so to open with a defeat to the group’s also-rans was disastrous. It also sent a consistent, rising trajectory careening off in the wrong direction. The line has been zig-zagging since. Between impressive performances against Ukraine in Poland and France in March have been careless, needlessly nervy wins against Armenia and Latvia.
One of the main issues in Yerevan a year ago was physical. Some Irish players wilted in the heat while others creaked with rung-rust, given their Championship seasons were already five weeks in the past. There are 14 Irish players in the same position again this time around, and tonight’s game kicks off fully 39 days after their season’s end. The Irish squad played a trio of 12-minute 11v11 games last Wednesday week and then a more formal, 70-minute internal match last Saturday to try and mitigate against these problems.
Kenny may be tempted to mitigate against it further by accentuating match sharpness in his team selection. If that is the case, Darragh Lenihan might find himself in the back three of Dara O’Shea: Lenihan went all the way to the play-off semi-finals with Middlesbrough, whereas O’Shea hasn’t played since March. Having played up to the end of May in Portugal with Vitoria Guimaraes, Mikey Johnston might also force his way into the team on this criteria.
Evan Ferguson and Nathan Collins played the final games of the Premier League season so they should be fine, while Gavin Bazunu will continue in goal in spite of his late-season, fig-leaf benching at Southampton. John Egan, Josh Cullen, and Callum O’Dowda will play in spite of their lengthy recent down-time, while Matt Doherty will likely continue at right wing-back in spite of his bit-part role at Atletico Madrid. Alan Browne – whose involvement in the training camp was curtailed by injury – will likely be used off the bench in a job-share with Doherty.
Ireland generally swap between a 3-4-3 and a 3-5-2, and when you put Kenny’s comments this week about Greece’s possession-hogging style with the fact he sees the latter as more effective for a counter-attacking game-plan, then you’d expect Ireland to line up with a front two.
There are a trio of contenders to partner Evan Ferguson, with Michael Obafemi doing so against Latvia. Obafemi’s last-minute withdrawal from a press engagement after training on Tuesday, however, suggests he might just have been given some bad news. Idah is ahead of Parrott in the pecking order at the moment, and Kenny has previously spoken of how Idah could play alongside Ferguson in a front two. Idah also has the pace and stamina to raid the spaces left behind Greece’s bucaneering full-backs, as the absent Chiedozie Ogbene did so well against France.
Greece will play a 4-3-3 and their full-backs – Liverpool’s Kostas Tsimikas and the recently-declared George Baldock of Sheffield United – provide the attacking thrust. Former Celtic striker Giorgos Giakoumakis is a recognisable name up front but the sense is that he will miss out on a starting spot in favour of Vangelis Pavlidis of AZ Alkmaar. Both are preferred to Anastasios Douvikas, despite the fact he finished last season as the Eredivisie’s top goalscorer.
A prime goalscoring threat is captain Anastasios Bakasetas, whose strength – shooting from distance – marries ominously with Ireland’s baffling weakness, which is conceding from distance. 10 of Ireland’s last 24 goals against were scored from outside the box, some of which were caused by bad luck but others by bad errors. Ireland need to fix this habit: they should not be so crass as to turn up in Athens with their Achilles heel on show.
This game is a hinge moment for all involved. A win would give Ireland an awesome kind of momentum for the autumn sprint to the end of qualifying, but anything less will carry fewer virtues than ever before.
Greece (Possible XI): Vlachadimos; Baldock, Mavropanos, Chatzidiakos, Tsimikas; Siopis, Bakasetas, Mantalos; Masouras, Pavilidis, Pelkas
Republic of Ireland (Possible XI): Bazunu; Collins, Egan, Lenihan; Doherty; Cullen, Molumby, Knight; O’Dowda; Idah, Ferguson
TV: RTE Two; KO 7.45pm