THE FAI HAD hoped to have Stephen Kenny’s successor in place by now, but negotiations to prise Lee Carsley from the FA have dragged on and are regrettably yet to move beyond private expressions of hope and optimism.
Today’s draw for the next manager’s first campaign, the 2024/25 Nations League, will therefore go ahead in that candidate’s absence.
When is the draw?
Proceedings get under way in Paris at 5pm this evening.
Are we still in League B?
Yep, Ireland remain in the second-tier League B of the Nations League. Stephen Kenny talked boldly of winning Ireland’s Nations League group last time out, but that was before the draw was made and reality intruded. Ireland finished third, behind Scotland and Ukraine but ahead of Armenia, whom they beat on the final day to avoid relegation.
Have there been any changes to the competition?
Yes, there will be even more games.
Group games will still be played on a home-and-away basis across the September, October, and November international windows this year.
And it’s still the case that the team that finishes top of their group in League B will be promoted to League A, while the bottom side will be relegated to League C.
There has now been the addition of promotion and relegation play-offs, however. A side that finishes second in League B will play a two-legged, home-and-away tie against a side that finished third in their League A group, while a side finishing third in League B will have to fight for their status in a play-off against a team finishing against a side who finished second in League C. These play-offs will be played in the March international window, which Ireland are this year filling with friendly games.
So if Ireland finish third in their group for the fourth-straight campaign, this time they’ll need a play-off victory to avoid relegation.
Who are Ireland’s potential opponents this time around?
Ireland are third seeds in the League B draw, and will therefore be drawn against one team from each of pots one, two, and four.
Here’s the breakdown:
Pot 1: Austria, Czechia, England, Wales
Pot 2: Finland, Ukraine, Iceland, Norway
Pot 3: Slovenia, Republic of Ireland, Albania, Montenegro
Pot 4: Georgia, Greece, Türkiye, Kazakhstan
One thing to note: Kazakhstan is deemed so far away from these parts that Uefa are allowing them to be drawn against only one of ourselves, England, Wales, and Iceland.
S0 to flip that to our point of view, it means Ireland can’t get Kazakhstan if they are drawn against any of England, Wales, or Iceland.
The pots are based on Nations League ranking, meaning less weight is given to form and recent achievements. For instance, Türkiye – who topped their Euros qualification group and are 37th in the Fifa rankings – are two pots below Iceland, who are 71st in the Fifa rankings. That’s because Türkiye have been promoted from League C, and Iceland are still somewhat tenured from having been in League A.
This all goes to say that Ireland could easily end up with a much trickier opponent from the fourth pot than the second.
England are in League B?
Yep, they were relegated from League A last time around, finishing bottom of a group with Italy, Hungary, and Germany.
What’s the best-case scenario for Ireland?
Wales look the most vulnerable of the top seeds, but all involved would be forgiven if they didn’t fancy yet another trip to Cardiff.
Iceland are the team to get in the second pot, as they have plummeting since their heady days at the 2016 Euros and 2018 World Cup. They failed to qualify from their group for the 2024 Euros, finishing fourth in their group, fully seven points behind Luxembourg. (Unlike Ireland, though, they have the fall-back of a play-off for the Euros.) Finland would also be a palatable option in a draw fraught with difficulty.
On paper, Kazakhstan look the best option from the bottom seeds, but they collected an impressive 18 points in Euro qualifying, tying with third-placed Finland, and we can’t be paired with them if we get Wales or Iceland. Another of our old pals, Georgia, seem to be better every time we play them, and this time around they have Napoli’s Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.
Best-case: Wales, Iceland, Republic of Ireland, Georgia.
And the worst-case scenario?
England would be the nightmare from the top pot, and while Norway are nowhere near the sum of their individual parts, those individual parts are pretty damn good.
As for the bottom seeds: we know from recent history that Greece are better than us, while Türkiye topped their Euros qualification group, ahead of Croatia and Wales.
Worst-case: England, Norway, Republic of Ireland, Türkiye
Why does the Nations League matter?
The Nations League is like taxation: it’s one of those extremely complex things which you don’t fully understand beyond a universal acceptance that it’s quite important.
Simply put, the better you perform in the Nations League, the better chance you have of qualifying for the next major tournament. Ireland know this, having missed out on a Euro 2024 play-off because of their comparatively inferior record in the last Nations League.
This Nations League offers a back-door to the 2026 World Cup. Only 16 European teams will qualify for that World Cup, which will be the 12 group winners of the traditional qualification phase along with four sides who qualify through the play-offs.
The play-offs will consist of the 12 runners-up from those qualification groups, along with the four best-ranked Nations League group winners who don’t earn at least a play-off via the traditional qualification group.
Ireland will need to win their Nations League group to be in the mix for this, which is a pretty tall order. (When people talk of relegation being a benefit – this is what they mean.)
But every result in this campaign counts towards improving their overall Nations League ranking, which is becoming a vital metric. The Euro 2024 qualifying draw was based on this ranking, and with Ireland dropping to third seeds, it left them open to landing France as second seeds. The Euro 2028 draw will likely be based on the same.
Therefore, every result counts.
What are Ireland’s realistic ambitions?
It is much too early to be making definitive forecasts, given we don’t have the draw and we don’t even have a manager. But if we are being brutally honest with ourselves, Ireland have circled the League B drain since this competition was introduced, and avoiding relegation looks a more realistic ambition than chasing promotion. A second-placed finish will bring a promotion play-off, though, which will fuel hope, if nothing else.