AT TIMES THIS week, you almost had to give yourself a pinch.
Ireland in relaxed form, brimming with confidence ahead of a World Cup quarter-final [KO 8pm Irish time, Virgin Media], seemingly totally convinced that they have the rugby quality and mental fortitude to make history by reaching a first-ever semi-final?
New Zealand willingly grabbing for the underdog tag, praising Irish players to the high heavens, and telling us that history doesn’t matter?
This is one of the biggest role reversals we’ve ever seen in rugby and so, you had to check yourself at times to be sure you’d heard it all right. This is what two years of excellence under Andy Farrell have done for Ireland and where a cycle of inconsistency has left the All Blacks.
In pure rugby terms, Ireland are a better team and should beat New Zealand in tonight’s game. Put together a composite side from both of these nations and, even for ardent Kiwi fans, it will probably be largely made up of Irish players. The expectation that another gigantic Irish crowd will march on the Stade de France adds another reason why Farrell’s men should win. Back home, the interest levels are unprecedented.
But it’s rarely that straightforward in sport. Knock-out rugby can be wild and the Kiwis have reason to hit a peak in this game. Ireland went to New Zealand last year and left with a series success. That stung. The Kiwis will remember every score going in, every groan of discontent from their home crowd. They want to put the record straight on the biggest stage.
They have attacking weapons that are thrilling or threatening depending on your point of view. Aaron Smith’s passing, Ardie Savea’s relentlessness, Beauden Barrett’s speed, and Will Jordan’s slaloming brilliance are all strengths.
One area where Ireland will believe they have the edge is in the tight five, which was a big point of difference last year. New Zealand have changed their props since, with head coach Ian Foster backing youth over experience in those positions today, but Ireland will feel their pack is stronger.
It was jarring to hear Foster explain how some of his selection decisions were based on defending the specific nature of Ireland’s attack. When have the All Blacks ever picked their team based on what the opposition do? How times have changed.
Ireland will have justifiable belief that their defence is better, as well as their attack. Farrell’s side have some scintillatingly in-form players in the likes of Bundee Aki, captain Johnny Sexton, Hugo Keenan, Caelan Doris, Tadhg Beirne, and others.
New Zealand’s attacking kicking game is probably sharper with out-half Richie Mo’unga and fullback Beauden Barrett capable of picking out the smallest slivers of space with the boot, but Ireland edge so many other areas from this pre-match vantage point.
Perhaps the biggest challenge is being mentally composed and assertive. Ireland have proven their mettle in this regard several times in the last couple of years, with performance coach Gary Keegan having a big influence, but who knows what happens in a World Cup quarter-final? We do know that the pressure ratchets up.
Both teams will be aggressively focused on starting strong here and it feels like Ireland doing so would be a bigger blow than the reverse. Their idea will be to hammer home that feeling that the Kiwis felt in two of the Tests last year.
There was drama this week, as expected. Ireland initially appeared to have the bigger concerns with injury issues for James Lowe, Mack Hansen, and James Ryan after last weekend’s impressive win over Scotland. In the end, Lowe and Hansen are good to go but Ryan misses out on taking his place on the bench.
It’s the All Blacks who end up without one of their starting wings, with Mark Telea axed after a disciplinary breach. It’s understood he missed a curfew. A huge mistake that might haunt him for a long time. Leicester Fainga’anuku is the beneficiary as he starts. He’s a fine player but Telea would have been one of the biggest dangers to Ireland.
If all of that wasn’t enough, Ireland assistant coach Mike Catt had to deal with a bizarre question intimating that they had been spying on the All Blacks at training this week. It was silly stuff yesterday and a sign that everyone is now ready for the rugby.
We’ve known for a long time that this quarter-final was very likely and finally it’s here. It promises to be yet another epic occasion at Stade de France, which has rocked with Irish support the last two times Farrell’s men have played there.
With Wayne Barnes as the man in the middle, it should be a thrilling spectacle between two teams who like to attack with ball in hand.
If they can’t be separated after the regular 80 minutes, we’ll have extra time of 10 minutes each way. If it’s still a draw after that, it’s another 10-minute period of extra time but with golden point in play. And if it’s still level, it’s a goal-kicking competition to decide who advances to the semi-finals, with five players from each team taking kicks from three positions along the 22-metre line.
But Ireland head into a World Cup quarter-final against New Zealand as the marginal favourites and it feels like a quarter-final they should be winning.
Ireland:
- 15. Hugo Keenan
- 14. Mack Hansen
- 13. Garry Ringrose
- 12. Bundee Aki
- 11. James Lowe
- 10. Johnny Sexton (captain)
- 9. Jamison Gibson-Park
- 1. Andrew Porter
- 2. Dan Sheehan
- 3. Tadhg Furlong
- 4. Tadhg Beirne
- 5. Iain Henderson
- 6. Peter O’Mahony
- 7. Josh van der Flier
- 8. Caelan Doris
Replacements:
- 16. Rónan Kelleher
- 17. Dave Kilcoyne
- 18. Finlay Bealham
- 19. Joe McCarthy
- 20. Jack Conan
- 21. Conor Murray
- 22. Jack Crowley
- 23. Jimmy O’Brien
New Zealand:
- 15. Beauden Barrett
- 14. Will Jordan
- 13. Rieko Ioane
- 12. Jordie Barrett
- 11. Leicester Fainga’anuku
- 10. Richie Mo’unga
- 9. Aaron Smith
- 1. Ethan de Groot
- 2. Codie Taylor
- 3. Tyrel Lomax
- 4. Brodie Retallick
- 5. Scott Barrett
- 6. Shannon Frizell
- 7. Sam Cane (captain)
- 8. Ardie Savea
Replacements:
- 16. Dane Coles
- 17. Tamaiti Williams
- 18. Fletcher Newell
- 19. Samuel Whitelock
- 20. Dalton Papali’i
- 21. Finlay Christie
- 22. Damian McKenzie
- 23. Anton Lienert-Brown
Referee: Wayne Barnes [RFU].