WE KNEW THAT Pool B was seen as the ‘pool of death’ but it’s quite jarring that Ireland head into their final group game having won three from three so far but with the prospect of an exit before the quarter-finals still existing.
This is what happens when three of the world’s top-five-ranked teams are in the one pool.
Given that Ireland have already beaten reigning world champions South Africa, along with Romania and Tonga, it feels strange that they’re not yet assured of their knock-out place.
Andy Farrell’s men are favourites to get the job done on Saturday night in Paris where they will meet a Scotland team desperate to cause an upset and advance beyond the pool stages at Ireland’s expense.
With South Africa having recorded a bonus-point win over Tonga last night to move to the top of Pool B, the permutations are clear ahead of this weekend. The Springboks have now played all four of their pool games and will rest up as Ireland face Scotland.
As things stand, the Springboks are on top of Pool B on 15 match points, with Ireland second on 14 match points and the Scots third on 10.
Before we go any further, it’s worth a reminder that if teams finish level on match points, their head-to-head record is the first deciding factor, followed by points difference.
If Ireland win on Saturday, things are simple.
Farrell’s side would top Pool B with either 18 or 19 match points, depending on whether they got a try-scoring bonus point. South Africa would finish second in the pool.
That would mean Ireland advancing to take on New Zealand in the quarter-finals, with South Africa facing France, barring a couple of monumental shocks in Pool A this weekend.
If Ireland draw against Scotland, they will still top Pool B.
That outcome would take Ireland to 16 or 17 match points, again depending on whether they grabbed a try-scoring bonus point. So Ireland would finish top of the pool, with South Africa second.
Ireland could also top the group if they lost to Scotland but took two losing bonus points from the game for scoring four tries and finishing within seven points of the Scots on the scoreboard.
That would take Ireland to 16 match points, so top of the pool. In that event, South Africa would still finish second ahead of the Scots, even if the latter got a try-scoring bonus point. The Boks and Scots would then both be on 15 match points but the former would go through having beaten the latter in their head-to-head pool clash.
Ireland could also still go through with just one losing bonus point, as long as Scotland won without a try-scoring bonus point. In that scenario, Ireland would be pool winners on 15 match points, edging South Africa on their head-to-head. Scotland, on 14 match points, would go home.
But if Scotland won and Ireland didn’t get a losing bonus point, Farrell’s men would be out.
In that event, South Africa would top the pool on 15 match points and while Ireland and Scotland would both finish on 14, Scotland would go through on account of their head-to-head win against Ireland. The same outcome would apply if Scotland earned a bonus-point win and Ireland got nothing. The Boks would be first, with Scotland second.
There’s another interesting possibility. If Scotland managed a bonus-point win and Ireland got one losing bonus point, all three teams would finish on 15 match points.
And that’s when points difference would come into the equation to decide top spot in the pool.
World Rugby has confirmed that if three teams finish a pool on the same match points and head-to-head can’t decide it, then points difference will be used to pick the pool winners. Once top spot is decided on points difference, second and third place will then be selected based on the head-to-head record between those teams.
Ireland currently have a better points difference than South Africa but only by five points. So if Scotland won by six or seven points against Ireland in this scenario, South Africa would top the pool on points difference, the Scots would be second on head-to-head, and Ireland would go home.
In this 15-match-points-all-round scenario, Ireland and South Africa could finish with the same points difference. In that event, the deciding factor for the pool winner would be the difference between tries scored for and tries scored against in the pool. As things stand, the Boks and Ireland are both +18 tries. After that, it’s most points scored in the pool and Ireland are already ahead by three points.
There’s also the rather bizarre scenario where Scotland win by 5-1 on match points next weekend but Ireland’s losing bonus point comes from scoring four tries. They could then let Scotland win by more than 20 points. That would mean Scotland topping the pool on points difference, with Ireland finishing second based on their head-to-head against South Africa, who would go out.
That’s highly unlikely, of course, and the simple goal for Ireland is to win on Saturday, making it a clean sweep of their pool. That would allow them to carry momentum into a quarter-final against New Zealand.