IF YOU LOOK at this match-up logically, you could argue that Scotland shouldn’t really have much of a chance. Ireland are on a 16-game winning streak and they’ve beaten the Scots the last eight times the sides have met.
Even with an in-game injury crisis up front, Ireland had too much quality for Gregor Townsend’s side when they played in Edinburgh in the Six Nations back in March. Even with a Triple Crown on the line, the Scots faded away.
Man-for-man, it seems clear that Ireland have a better team. The Irish forward pack is more powerful, their cohesive backline is more impactful on both sides of the ball. The Irish bench looks stronger too.
It remains to be seen how many Irish fans are actually in Stade de France for tonight’s World Cup Pool B clash [KO 8pm Irish time, Virgin Media] but it would be a surprise if they don’t outnumber the Scots.
For all of these reasons and more, Ireland are 11-point favourites to secure the win that would ensure top spot in Pool B and a quarter-final against New Zealand back at Stade de France in a week’s time.
And yet, there’d be no point in anyone turning up if there wasn’t jeopardy involved in this, if there wasn’t scope for a surprise. Townsend’s men have stated their belief that they can end Ireland’s winning run.
Fullback Blair Kinghorn went as far as to say the Scots will end Ireland’s streak of successes.
“They’ve been on a good run of form recently, but we’ll end that on Saturday,” said Kinghorn.
If Scotland don’t genuinely believe they can do it, it’s another reason for not turning up. They have readily embraced the underdog status bestowed upon them this week and they’re fighting for their lives in this game.
Lose and they’re going home, as most people expected. But win and Scotland have achieved one of their greatest results ever. Advancing from this pool of death, having been beaten by South Africa on the opening weekend, would be a huge success for Townsend and his players.
A reminder of the permutations. An Ireland win would guarantee them top spot in Pool D, as would a draw or even two losing bonus points.
A losing bonus point for Ireland without Scotland getting a try-scoring bonus point in victory would leave Farrell’s men top of the pool too.
But if Scotland won and Ireland didn’t get a losing bonus point, Farrell’s side would be out of the World Cup.
There’s also the possibility of Scotland getting a bonus-point win and Ireland notching a losing bonus point, meaning both of them and South Africa would finish on 15 match points each. In that case, points difference would decide top spot, with second and third place decided on head-to-head.
Scotland need to be close to perfect tonight, as well as hoping that Ireland are a fair bit off their peak level of performance. If Ireland play as well as we know they can, they will win.
Andy Farrell’s side seem likely to back themselves to be too physical for the Scots, even if Townsend’s side have improved in that regard with the likes of hooker George Turner, prop Pierre Schoeman, and back rows Rory Darge and Jamie Ritchie stepping up more consistently.
Irish forwards coach Paul O’Connell will be extremely keen for the lineout to fire accurately given the issues of recent weeks. Replacing lineout caller James Ryan with the highly-experienced Iain Henderson is seen as one measure towards remedying that issue, while the return of frontline hooker Dan Sheehan could help too. If Ireland can win their ball, they’ll believe their maul can do damage.
Meanwhile, scrum coach John Fogarty was delighted to see the Irish forwards adapting in a tough battle with South Africa last time out. That their game-sealing six points in the second half came from two scrum penalty wins was a nice confidence boost.
Ireland will feel they can win the battle in the air tonight too, having scored one of their tries in March off a regained Jamison Gibson-Park box kick but also having watched the Springboks get real joy with contestable kicks over the Scots a few weeks ago.
Irish defence coach Simon Easterby will be relishing the chance for his charges to go after Finn Russell and this talented Scottish backline, which cut Ireland for their only score in the Six Nations clash this year. The midfield combination of Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones combined superbly on that occasion, so Ireland have been warned.
They know too how powerful wing Duhan van der Merwe can be and how Darcy Graham’s dancing feet are a threat, while Kinghorn will try to connect with Russell as a playmaker but also use his long strides to make inroads out wide.
Ireland will justifiably feel the Scottish defence has more to worry about. Russell can be a delight to watch, but Johnny Sexton is a better director of play.
Sexton will see if the Scots can stay connected when the fluid Irish attack is stringing together short passes that constantly change the picture, when the likes of Caelan Doris and Andrew Porter are making direct carries, when Ireland probe back into the shortside with one of their multiple first receivers options.
The Scots will attack the breakdown savagely, no doubt, but they’ll have to make excellent decisions if they’re not to leave the defensive line short of a body or two. Ireland are experts at recognising those opportunities and taking advantage.
And whatever about the Scots and what they’ll bring, Ireland aren’t content with what they’ve been able to deliver in this World Cup so far. Even though they beat the reigning champions in a rip-roaring contest last time out, they feel there’s a lot more to come.
There’s a pressure that comes with this tie, of course, but Ireland have become better at managing that mental stress under Farrell and performance coach Gary Keegan. They’ve also become good at harnessing big milestones like Peter O’Mahony’s 100th cap tonight to add another layer of focus.
A loss and a World Cup exit here would rank right up there with Irish disasters at this tournament, but Ireland have earned the trust and confidence of their supporters.
Ireland:
- 15. Hugo Keenan
- 14. Mack Hansen
- 13. Garry Ringrose
- 12. Bundee Aki
- 11. James Lowe
- 10. Johnny Sexton (captain)
- 9. Jamison Gibson-Park
- 1. Andrew Porter
- 2. Dan Sheehan
- 3. Tadhg Furlong
- 4. Tadhg Beirne
- 5. Iain Henderson
- 6. Peter O’Mahony
- 7. Josh van der Flier
- 8. Caelan Doris
Replacements:
- 16. Rónan Kelleher
- 17. Dave Kilcoyne
- 18. Finlay Bealham
- 19. James Ryan
- 20. Jack Conan
- 21. Conor Murray
- 22. Jack Crowley
- 23. Stuart McCloskey
Scotland:
- 15. Blair Kinghorn
- 14. Darcy Graham
- 13. Huw Jones
- 12. Sione Tuipulotu
- 11. Duhan van der Merwe
- 10. Finn Russell
- 9. Ali Price
- 1. Pierre Schoeman
- 2. George Turner
- 3. Zander Fagerson
- 4. Richie Gray
- 5. Grant Gilchrist
- 6. Jamie Ritchie (captain)
- 7. Rory Darge
- 8. Jack Dempsey
Replacements:
- 16. Ewan Ashman
- 17. Rory Sutherland
- 18. WP Nel
- 19. Scott Cummings
- 20. Matt Fagerson
- 21. Luke Crosbie
- 22. George Horne
- 23. Ollie Smith
Referee: Nic Berry [Australia].