AFTER A NICE three-day World Cup holiday, Ireland will regather at their training camp in Tours today and begin to get the wheels turning again.
They know better than anyone that the hard work is only really starting now. Ireland are back in training from tomorrow but have no game this weekend, so they’re preparing for their final Pool B clash with Scotland in Paris on Saturday 7 October.
Victory would make it four wins from four in the pool and send Ireland into a quarter-final against New Zealand.
But while fans and the media might be plotting Ireland’s route to the World Cup final, there’s no sense of Andy Farrell’s men getting ahead of themselves. They were notably calm after last weekend’s win over the Springboks, with Farrell and his players quickly pointing out that the South Africans could have won what was a tight, tense battle.
As after their previous two World Cup games, the Ireland players did a lap of the pitch in Paris to thank the remarkable Irish support, which has blown them away in France. It was certainly no lap of honour, more a lap of gratitude.
Farrell and captain Johnny Sexton set the tone in their post-match press conference as they stressed that the job is far from done. As the questions inevitably came about facing the All Blacks in the quarter-finals, they insisted that the only focus is Scotland.
That’s obviously not totally true. It would be negligent of Ireland not to have been analysing the Kiwis, among others, since it was obvious they could possibly meet. Coaches and analysts have to plan ahead in the background, even if the players are only presented with the relevant information soon before the actual games.
Still, there’s no doubt that Ireland will give Scotland the respect they deserve next weekend. Gregor Townsend’s men are ranked fifth in the world and while they haven’t won any silverware, they’re a fine Test side.
Ireland will be confident – eight consecutive wins against the Scots is certainly a psychological advantage – but this team has yet to show any hint of complacency under Farrell. The Ireland boss will be cognisant of the potential for a slip-up if his men take their eye off the ball in this final pool game.
Ireland treated Tonga with the respect of naming an almost full-strength side and playing at full intensity. They showed them respect by beating them ruthlessly.
It seems highly unlikely that Farrell will approach the Scotland game any differently.
Farrell knows his men have momentum and he’s never been one to overly worry about the possibility of injuries affecting things further down the line. He simply deals with injuries as they happen and so far, Ireland have been incredibly lucky at this World Cup.
There’s also the reality that Scotland will be fighting desperately for a place in the quarter-finals having presumably beaten Romania this coming weekend and giving themselves a chance. With underdog status, they will throw everything at Ireland.
If the Scots win with a bonus point this Saturday against Romania, as expected, they will move onto 10 match points. They would still leave them behind Ireland’s 14 and South Africa’s 10, given that the latter beat the Scots in the opening round. Head-to-head counts before points difference.
But with South Africa presumably recording a bonus-point win against Tonga this Sunday, they are set to move onto 15 points and out of reach of the Scots on account of that head-to-head element.
So Scotland’s hope would be to beat Ireland and deny them a losing bonus point. The Scots could afford to give up the losing bonus point if they nab a try-scoring bonus point in beating Farrell’s men. Either way, they’d take the quarter-final spot ahead of Ireland.
There would also be the possibility of Ireland losing but grabbing two bonus points and still topping the pool, but we’re down the rabbit hole now.
With all of this in mind, it appears unlikely that Farrell will opt for any great shake-up of his team next week. He could make a handful of changes to the matchday 23 without greatly upsetting its rhythm, but it makes sense to continue with his policy of just naming his strongest team and trying to beat what’s in front of Ireland.
There are three members of Ireland’s 33-man World Cup squad who have yet to feature in the tournament: Jack Conan, Stuart McCloskey, and Jimmy O’Brien.
Conan is expected to have recovered from his foot injury in time for this clash with Scotland and it makes sense to involve him in some way given how patient Ireland have been with his rehabilitation. Farrell and co. believe he could still have a big impact on this World Cup and didn’t need to rush his comeback.
With Bundee Aki in career-best form and Robbie Henshaw the preferred number 23 for the last two games, inside centre McCloskey has had to watch on from the sidelines. He proved last season that he’s ready to step up whenever called upon and he certainly wouldn’t be a weakness if Farrell was to involve him against Scotland.
The same applies to the versatile O’Brien, who would probably be in the number 23 shirt if it wasn’t for Farrell’s fondness for including one of his out-and-out centres in that slot. There’s no doubt O’Brien would love a shot against the Scots.
Farrell and co. might consider whether some of the bench players from last weekend could rotate into the starting XV for this one.
Dan Sheehan is in that bracket after making his return from a foot injury off the bench in the win over the Springboks, while second row Iain Henderson, scrum-half Conor Murray, tighthead prop Finlay Bealham, and centre Henshaw all played important parts.
At the same time, Farrell would be justified in just continuing what he has been doing so far in this World Cup – send out your best players, build more momentum, and keep winning.
In this Ireland set-up, it appears they’re good at remembering that the next game is the biggest one.
