THIS IS ONLY a pool game and either side could recover from defeat to reach the knock-out stages, yet it feels much, much bigger than that.
As Ireland and South Africa spoke their final pre-match words at Stade de France yesterday, you could have been forgiven for thinking this was a quarter-final or an even grander occasion. There is a true sense of gravity to this fixture.
Ireland can make it three wins from three games at this World Cup when they face the Springboks tonight [KO 8pm Irish time, RTÉ]. It would be their 16th successive win. And it would also be a major statement of their plan to make history at this World Cup.
It promises to be a phenomenal occasion in Paris, with over 30,000 Irish fans expected in the stadium. Normally, it’s not obvious in the heart of a city as big as this that there’s a rugby match on but the visiting Irish have been obvious all over the place.
The similarity between the two camps has been striking this week. They are different teams stylistically but they have many things in common. First off, they both appear to be completely confident that they have the quality to win this game. They have intriguing characters driving their set-ups. For Andy Farrell, Johhny Sexton, and Paul O’Connell, read Rassie Erasmus, Siya Kolisi, and Jacques Nienaber.
The make-up of the two squads is similar. South Africa’s 33-man World Cup group came into this tournament with an average of 42 Test caps, Ireland’s average was 41. The average age of South Africa’s squad is 30, while Ireland’s is 29.
They have charismatic leaders in Farrell and Erasmus. They’re bosses who players want to fight for. And those main men have studious, technically-savvy sidemen in O’Connell and Nienaber. It will be fascinating to see what tactical plans they have for this match.
Both teams have undoubtedly held back set-piece plays for the big occasion, while both will be bringing a destructive mindset to the lineout, maul, scrum, and breakdown. Kiwi referee Ben O’Keeffe will be given plenty of food for thought.
Ireland’s attack has been game-leading in the past two seasons, while the Springboks’ muscular defence has been era-defining. This particular match-up will be absorbing. But the focus there also masks the fact that Ireland’s defence is excellent and the South Africans’ attack is sublime when the likes of Manie Libbok, Cheslin Kolbe, and Kurt-Lee Arendse are integrally involved.
All the talk of the Springboks’ 7/1 bench this week has become a little tiresome but it’s understandable. To finally get the chance to see how it unfolds at Stade de France is thrilling.
That widespread discussion has dominated the build-up, distracting from subplots like whether Boks out-half Libbok has what it takes at this elevated level. Ireland will surely have discussed posing that question tonight.
Erasmus’ men are the title holders but Ireland look like the more settled side coming into this game.
13 of the 15 players who started the third Test win over New Zealand last year start again tonight, while the other two – Dan Sheehan and Robbie Henshaw – are on the bench. 12 of the starting side from the Grand Slam decider against England this year are still in situ tonight, with the other three – Sheehan, Henshaw, and Ryan Baird – among the replacements.
Ireland’s superpower is their cohesion and they’ll back themselves to find a way through the Springboks’ defence. The temptation is to set up as wide as possible and pass long into what appears to be space, but that rarely beats the Boks. Ireland are more likely to use their slick short passing game in a narrower approach.
Erasmus regularly encourages his players to “f**k them up physically” when he’s talking about the opposition and the plan appears quite clear tonight with those seven forwards to come off the bench. That’s not to diminish the skill levels of these South African players. The likes of Pieter-Steph du Toit, Eben Etzebeth, and Kolisi are well capable of classy touches. But they enjoy bringing a brutal edge too.
The decision to leave Willie le Roux out of their matchday 23 was a surprise given how important he has been for the Boks in unlocking defences. Many of their tries in the last few years have involved key passes from the fullback. But they’ve left him out to go with an extra forward on the bench, meaning a little less flexibility to change things up.
The Boks love being front-runners, a position that allows them to squeeze and squeeze their prey, who often become desperate, make mistakes, and are punished in ruthless fashion by the South Africans.
Ireland have had some impressively fast starts at their best under Farrell and it feels crucial they do it again tonight.
Still, they will back themselves to find a way out of trouble no matter the circumstances. Their work with Gary Keegan has helped them to become calmer under pressure. But then the Boks feel they have the most composure of any team in the game.
To beat them tonight with millions of people watching would mean Ireland taking another major psychological step toward winning the World Cup.
South Africa:
- 15. Damian Willemse
- 14. Kurt-Lee Arendese
- 13. Jesse Kriel
- 12. Damian de Allende
- 11. Cheslin Kolbe
- 10. Manie Libbok
- 9. Faf de Klerk
- 1. Steven Kitshoff
- 2. Bongi Mbonambi
- 3. Frans Malherbe
- 4. Eben Etzebeth
- 5. Franco Mostert
- 6. Siya Kolisi (captain)
- 7. Pieter-Steph du Toit
- 8. Jasper Wiese
Replacements:
- 16. Deon Fourie
- 17. Ox Nche
- 18. Trevor Nyakane
- 19. Jean Kleyn
- 20. RG Snyman
- 21. Marco van Staden
- 22. Kwagga Smith
- 23. Cobus Reinach
Ireland:
- 15. Hugo Keenan
- 14. Mack Hansen
- 13. Garry Ringrose
- 12. Bundee Aki
- 11. James Lowe
- 10. Johnny Sexton (captain)
- 9. Jamison Gibson-Park
- 1. Andrew Porter
- 2. Rónan Kelleher
- 3. Tadhg Furlong
- 4. Tadhg Beirne
- 5. James Ryan
- 6. Peter O’Mahony
- 7. Josh van der Flier
- 8. Caelan Doris
Replacements:
- 16. Dan Sheehan
- 17. Dave Kilcoyne
- 18. Finlay Bealham
- 19. Iain Henderson
- 20. Ryan Baird
- 21. Conor Murray
- 22. Jack Crowley
- 23. Robbie Henshaw
Referee: Ben O’Keeffe [NZR].
