WHEN ANDY FARRELL named something very close to his first-choice team for Ireland’s opener against Romania last weekend, it initially seemed to suggest that he would then use the second Pool B clash with Tonga to rotate his team somewhat.
The thinking was that Farrell could keep some key front-liners out of the firing line a week out from the key pool clash against reigning World Cup champions South Africa, as well as taking the opportunity to give everyone in his 33-man squad a chance to play in this tournament.
That might still be the case and there’s a good argument to be made for it. Keeping everyone in the group invested by giving them a chance to play seems like a sensible strategy.
However, events of the opening weekend in France have challenged this line of thinking. It may make more sense for Farrell to go with most of his front-liners again.
Ireland’s performance against a poor Romania team was good. They racked up 12 tries and had some excellent passages of attack, but it wasn’t without fault either. Ireland missed chances, were a little over-eager on several occasions, and had more issues at the lineout, which has been error-prone in recent times.
In short, there was plenty to iron out in the Irish performance. And that’s understandable given how last weekend was just the second time that Farrell has fielded something close to his first-choice team so far this season. He put a similar selection out against England in Ireland’s second warm-up game of three, but they haven’t had a chance to build rhythm together.
Indeed, upon reflection, the front-line Irish team hasn’t had the kind of slick, polished performance they aspire to against top opposition possibly since all the way back in February when they beat France at home. There have been bits of brilliance in glimpses since, but nothing of that calibre.
The flickers of cohesion were there last weekend but Ireland looked like a team that could do with more time together to refresh combinations we have come to view as settled.
Johnny Sexton slotted back in as seamlessly as ever, but we know that he wants to go again this weekend against Tonga. The rest of the first-choice players almost certainly feel exactly the same. They believe they’ve earned the Ireland jersey and there’s no player who readily gives that up.
It’s important to respect Tonga, who are ranked 15th in the world and weren’t all that impressive in their warm-up games, but have undoubted talent and togetherness in their squad.
But it’s also undeniable that Ireland’s clash with South Africa in two weekends’ time has loomed over this pool. It looks like being the decider. Whoever wins that one seems likely to top the group and avoid playing France in Paris in the quarter-finals. That’s a scenario worth avoiding, even if you might still have to beat les Bleus to win the World Cup.
Even without considering the knock-out draw, the value of beating South Africa is obvious. They’re the champs. A win in that game would be the ultimate momentum and confidence booster. It would give Ireland’s bid to make history a thrilling injection of belief and credibility.
Let’s not forget the South Africans have already played a Rugby Championship, had a final warm-up against the All Blacks, and squeezed the life out of a good Scotland team on Sunday. The Boks can rest key men against Romania this weekend knowing that they’re already battle-hardened and ready to go against Ireland.
Farrell doesn’t have the same reality with his key players. For example, we know Andrew Porter and Tadhg Furlong are excellent, but they’ve only played around 130 minutes each so far this season. Jamison Gibson-Park has had just 124 minutes. Most of the Irish front-liners have fewer than 200.
Did the Ireland team we saw last weekend look ready to take on and beat the Boks? Having had a chance to rewatch the game and note the bits that need improvement, you’d have to say no. Particularly the lineout, where Ireland could do with an excellent outing against Tonga before they face the chaos-causing Boks lineout defence.
World Cup campaigns have generally involved Ireland and other top nations using their squad to rotate during the pool stages. It has been the norm that first-choice players get pulled out of the firing at some stage. But then we’ve never had a World Cup like this one, with a break weekend built into the pool schedule for every team.
Ireland will have a weekend off after they face the Boks, allowing them to freshen up before they clash with Scotland. So Farrell would be entitled to feel that anyone asked to start three weekends in a row against Romania, Tonga, and South Africa can handle it, with a rest to come and relatively few minutes in their legs before this.
If the IRFU’s much-vaunted player management system is for anything, surely it’s to allow the top players to go all-out when they need to in campaigns like this World Cup.
In all likelihood, Farrell has already told his players who will be starting against Tonga this weekend. It tends to happen at the start of the training week. The rest of us will know for certain when the matchday 23 is officially announced on Thursday afternoon.
But it makes sense if Farrell goes with his strongest team or something close to it.
The risk of injury looms over every single game and it would be a dire shame if Ireland lost an important player before the Boks clash. But Farrell will probably feel there’s also a risk of going in undercooked against the reigning champions.