WE ALL KNOW it’s far from ideal. The five top-ranked nations in rugby are all on one side of this year’s World Cup draw.
France and New Zealand are both in Pool A, while Ireland, South Africa, and Scotland are in Pool B, so with those two pools on a quarter-final collision course, only two of these five teams can reach the semi-finals of the tournament.
That’s not to say the other side of the draw won’t be competitive. Eddie Jones will back himself to make Australia contenders out of Pool C, where the Wallabies will meet Warren Gatland’s Wales and a couple of sides looking to cause upsets in Fiji and Georgia.
England will have to contend with an improving Argentina in Pool D, while no one can sleep on Jamie Joseph’s Japan, the stars of the last World Cup on home soil.
Nonetheless, it’s clearly a lopsided draw and World Rugby has already indicated that the pool draw won’t be done as early for future World Cups. That’s welcome news. Remember that this draw took place in December 2020, nearly three years out. Tickets need to be sold, sure, but it later is better.
As it is, Ireland are facing into a tough schedule if they’re to advance further than ever before. Andy Farrell’s men aren’t thinking about any perceived quarter-final hurdle, they’re intent on winning the whole thing in France.
So it was that we heard Farrell and captain Johnny Sexton almost immediately mentioning the World Cup in the wake of their Grand Slam-clinching win over England last weekend. It was a massive high, but they see the Slam as another point on the journey toward something much bigger.
After warm-up games against Italy, England, and Samoa, the run of their fixtures in the pool stages does look somewhat favourable, even if it’s a tricky pool.
Farrell’s men start their campaign on 9 September against Romania, who just finished third in the Rugby Europe Championship, are ranked 19th in the world, and saw head coach Andy Robinson resign a couple of months ago.
A week later, Ireland are up against 15th-ranked Tonga, who have welcomed star players like Charles Piutau, Isreal Folau, George Moala, Augustine Pulu, Vaea Fifita, and Lopeti Timani into their squad via World Rugby’s change in eligibility laws. Even with those reinforcements, Ireland should have the quality to pick up more momentum.
Then it’s the big showdown with the reigning champion Springboks. It helps that Ireland beat Rassie Erasmus’ side in November, albeit on home soil. There are no question marks over the South Africans’ ability to go up a level in the heat of a World Cup, but Irish players can have some belief after going toe-to-toe with them so recently and winning.
Defeat for either side would not necessarily be catastrophic given the difficulty of any possible quarter-final, and Ireland have a two-week break to their final pool game against the Scots. Again, the recent win over Gregor Townsend’s side was a psychological fillip, particularly given that Ireland had so many injuries and the Scots were playing for a Triple Crown but faded in the second half anyway.
The World Cup quarter-finals take place the following weekend, with either France or New Zealand almost certainly awaiting Ireland if they get through. For all of Italy’s improvement, it would be a gigantic shock if they upset either of the heavyweights in Pool A.
The French and Kiwis meet in what should be an epic opening game of the World Cup in Paris on a Friday night, 8 September, which will likely decide who tops the pool and therefore meets the second-placed team from Ireland’s group in the quarter-finals.
It means Ireland’s potential quarter-final won’t be straightforward regardless of how well the pool goes for them. At this stage, Irish fans would probably pick the Kiwis, who Farrell’s side beat in a series on their own patch last summer and who haven’t hit the heights of previous All Blacks teams. Perhaps it’s best to save France for the final.
But let’s flip this on its head – no one will be keen to face Ireland given the level they’ve been playing at. This isn’t like 2019 when everyone else could sense that that Irish team was on the decline.
Farrell’s side have answered every question asked of them, standing up against the biggest packs, dealing with the most dangerous attacks, and breakdown down the most stifling of defences. They have beaten France, New Zealand, South Africa, Scotland, England, Australia, Argentina, Wales, and Japan in the last two years. That’s everyone else in the top 10.
Ireland have world-class players across the pitch and a deeper squad than has been the case before. They’ve also proven their mental mettle, even if people like Steve Hansen have doubts about how it will hold up at a World Cup.
To be fair to Farrell, he has attempted to liberate Irish players from any of the possible burden of breaking a glass ceiling. They’ve been talking about this World Cup from earlier than ever before, rather than hiding away from it. He has pushed his players to attack games when the stakes are high.
This group has created World Cup-esque runs for themselves as practice. That’s one way they viewed this Grand Slam success, a run of five games in which they had to win every single one, concluding with a big final against England. Helpfully, they were far from perfect in every one of those games, so there’s so much room for improvement left to chase when they come back together.
So while the temptation is for Irish supporters to worry about how tough a route to the final Ireland have, they’re going to have to beat the best to be the best anyway. Farrell’s side won’t fear anyone and, for a change, others should be worrying about Ireland.
