ONE OF THE rugby statistics we’ve become a little obsessed with in recent years is points per opposition 22 entry.
It’s not rocket science. Basically, this tells us how well a team took their chances. It’s not a perfect metric by any means but it can be useful for backing up or disproving impressions of games after a live viewing.
Our definition of an entry into the opposition 22 is any possession or attacking set-piece platform in that zone of the pitch. Generally speaking, the teams who are clinical when they get into the 22 are the ones who win.
Ireland under Andy Farrell have often been ruthless in this regard.
Some of their biggest wins go hand-in-hand with a high points per opposition 22 entry.
For example, when they beat New Zealand in last year’s Test series decider, Ireland scored 3.25 points per 22 entry, according to Opta’s data.
Ireland’s victory over the Springboks last autumn in Dublin involved a return of 3.17 points per entry.
It’s rare that Ireland dip under 2.00 points per entry.
But last weekend in Paris, Ireland earned only 0.91 points per entry in the South African 22. This underlines that the metric certainly isn’t everything as an indicator of success, but also illustrates just how well Farrell’s side did to win the game.
And as Ireland got back training in recent days ahead of next weekend’s clash with Scotland, this was a clear indicator that they can get better. It should be stressed that the South Africans’ defence is superb and no team will score on every visit to the 22 against them, but Ireland will still be targeting improvement.
The only time Ireland had a lower points per opposition 22 entry in recent memory was their return of 0.70 against Australia last November in Dublin when they needed a late, long-range Ross Byrne penalty to win the game.
Ireland’s ability to grind out victory in both of these matches is admirable but they will hope their points per entry figures don’t dip so low again in this World Cup. It could prove damaging if it happens on another big night.
Last weekend, Ireland had 11 entries into the South African 22 and scored one try. They did also win two penalties and got a five-metre scrum on another visit, but coming away completely empty-handed on seven occasions in the Boks 22 will have been displeasing.
After a South African error almost directly from the kick-off, Ireland had their first opposition 22 entry inside the opening minute but the Boks came up with an excellent lineout steal.
Ireland are likely to reflect that they could have called differently here given how Franco Mostert doesn’t budge from the tail of the lineout.
He is part of a pod that never shifts from that area, despite a dummy run from lineout caller James Ryan. By that stage, it’s too late for Ireland to change their call but they may have discussed possible space in front of Mostert, where neither number eight Jasper Wiese nor tighthead prop Frans Malherbe are threats to the Irish throw.
That said, Ireland clearly had a plan to win the ball at the tail, which is understandable so early on. A clean win at the back of the lineout opens huge attacking opportunity.
While Ireland lose the ball here for a failed 22 entry, they almost immediately win it back as Ryan makes a smart play and intercepts the ball from Mostert, giving them a new 22 entry.
Ireland then snap into some of the clever attacking shape we looked at in this piece, earning a penalty as Boks prop Steven Kitshoff is penalised at the breakdown after making a tackle.
As we can see below, Kitshoff ends up in a bad spot after tackling Hugo Keenan but Ireland scrum-half Jamison Gibson-Park makes sure that referee Ben O’Keeffe is well aware of it by subtly pushing his right knee into Kitshoff on the ground.
While Ireland don’t get any points from this 22 entry – with advantage playing, Sexton tries an ambitious long pass that’s intercepted – earning a penalty is still seen as a success by most teams.
Ireland decline the chance to kick at goal in the second minute and instead back themselves to go into the corner.
Again, they’re picked off at the lineout.
This time, Ireland do take the obvious space by throwing the front of the lineout, which is initially unmarked.
But it’s a trap the Boks have set. Watch how loosehead prop Steven Kitshoff moves from the ‘receiver’ position into the front of the lineout, while Malherbe backs away from the tail of the lineout to essentially swap roles with Kitshoff, becoming the receiver.
With the benefit of freeze frames, it’s clear that Malherbe is still in the lineout when Ireland hooker Rónan Kelleher throws, but it’s very hard to be certain live and the Boks’ clever plan allows Kitshoff to lift Pieter-Steph du Toit at the front for another big steal.
Ireland’s next entry into the South African 22 comes from Keenan’s linebreak off the superb Garry Ringrose pass we examined in this piece.
The Irish fullback nearly goes all the way from 40 metres out but a brilliant try-saving tackle from Boks centre Jesse Kriel denies him and there’s a hugely frustrating turnover on the next phase.
Caelan Doris’ carry onto Kelleher’s pass is strong but the ball comes loose as he goes to ground in the tackle.
It appears that the ball is dislodged by a combination of Kelleher’s right knee and the back of tackler Moster’s head, so it’s a little unlucky but Doris will likely have felt that his ball security needed to be better.
Ireland place a huge premium on their ability to win the trench warfare once they’re within five metres of the opposition tryline. To turn the ball over after such a brilliant attacking thrust won’t have sat well with them.
Farrell’s men are soon back in the Boks 22 but he will have been annoyed to watch them get turned over at the breakdown on first phase of their lineout attack.
We discussed this Kurt-Lee Arendse turnover penalty in this piece on Ireland’s attack, but it’s worth stressing how disappointed they will have been that it happened on first phase when everyone knew the plan and where the ball could end up, even with multiple options.
This is still only 18 minutes into the game and Ireland have already had six entries into the Boks 22 for a return of zero points, while the South Africans have taken three points from their only entry into Ireland’s 22.
Ireland had to show their defensive grit in the next passage of the game before Bundee Aki’s huge midfield linebreak lifted the siege and gave his side their next entry into the opposition 22.
The ball needed to be flashed left here but with Sexton involved in the breakdown along with centres Aki and Robbie Henshaw, and communication not as strong as it would have been otherwise, the instant opportunity is gone.
The Boks’ defence recovers remarkably well and seems to have quelled the Irish attack until Sexton’s brilliant pass allows Aki to accelerate down the left touchline and offload, leading to the Boks conceding a penalty.
It’s Mostert who is pinged for not showing a clear release here and while the advantage comes to nothing for Ireland as Henshaw’s cross-kick goes too deep, there is the success of earning a penalty.
Again, Ireland go into the corner and this time they come up with seven points as Mack Hansen scores and Sexton converts.
That 33rd-minute try is reviewed in detail here.
But there was still time for another Irish entry into the Boks 22 before the interval as Josh van der Flier’s breakdown penalty allows them to kick down the right, where their lineout is successful. The initial phases are powerful and smart, but Ireland turn the ball over again.
It’s Ryan who loses the ball forward. The point of the ball appears to come into contact with Kitshoff’s knee and come loose of Ryan’s right arm.
It’s a little unfortunate again, but the Ireland lock will obviously have been disappointed with his ball security. That said, it was a tough ask for him to carry here having just retreated. He’s got little chance to generate momentum into his carry.
Even though there’s nothing clearly ‘on’ here for Ireland, just being in possession in this area of the pitch is a good thing. It’s possible to generate scoring chances or earn penalties but Ireland leave empty-handed here.
It’s a similar story early in the first half after some smart kicking and Peter O’Mahony’s lineout competition earn Ireland another lineout in the Boks 22.
Ireland back themselves to beat the Boks into the air here without any intricate movement, with O’Mahony turning to lift Ryan. But the Boks’ ‘hinge’ defender, Wiese, reacts superbly and gets to Mostert to lift him for his second steal.
Kelleher might feel he needed to get a hint more height on this throw given that Ryan is reaching forward in an effort to catch it, rather than overhead, as Mostert gets his hand to the ball.
Ireland may also have reflected on whether they could have targeted Wiese here, even if it would mean Kelleher threading his throw delicately in between Eben Etzebeth and Mostert. Alternatively, they’ll wonder if they needed more movement on the ground to drag the Boks out of shape before getting into the air.
This lineout loss comes in the 44th minute and Ireland don’t have possession in the Boks 22 again for the next 30 minutes of game time.
Their 74th-minute entry is earned through a huge counter-ruck effort led by Iain Henderson after van der Flier’s excellent tackle on kick chase.
Turnovers often produce superb attacking opportunities given that the defence is not organised and that’s accentuated here by the fact that South Africa have just scrambled back downfield to gather Tadhg Beirne’s kick off another counter-ruck turnover led by Doris.
Unfortunately for Ireland, they fail to take the chance immediately from the turnover as Conor Murray’s pass is spilled by Ryan Baird.
The opportunity here is clear with six Irish players outside Baird, clearly outnumbering the Boks defenders on that side.
But with Ireland failing to convert immediately, the Boks recover their defensive shape and batter them backwards over the ensuing phases, leading to replacement out-half Jack Crowley deciding to take a drop goal.
Crowley’s effort is partially blocked and Boks fullback Damian Willemse makes an error in allowing it to run dead, meaning a five-metre scrum for Ireland.
So while this Irish entry into the 22 hasn’t produced points or a penalty, the muddled thinking from Willemse means they get a promising outcome with the close-range scrum.
And the last entry Ireland have in the Boks 22 is a successful one as they get a scrum penalty for the Boks’ instability before the feed.
Crowley calmly lets the shot clock tick down before slotting the three points.
It’s Ireland’s last action in the Boks 22 and though they manage to hold out down the other end with the clock in the red, there’s no doubt that Farrell, Sexton and co. will have reviewed this game with a critical lens.
They know they’ll have to get better if they’re going to win this World Cup, starting with Saturday’s massive Pool B clash with Scotland in Paris. The improvement starts with getting a better return from their 22 entries.
